The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/17/2023 at 9:23 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sound of Freedom	T-16	Jax	5	21	15	196	1,622	12.08%
		Phx	6	35	-1	324	2,511	12.90%
		Ral	6	19	7	197	2,039	9.66%
	Total		17	75	21	717	6,172	11.62%

 

Sound of Freedom T-16 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .648x (2.14m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sound of Freedom	T-15	Jax	5	21	11	207	1,622	12.76%
		Phx	6	35	22	346	2,511	13.78%
		Ral	6	19	16	213	2,039	10.45%
	Total		17	75	49	766	6,172	12.41%

 

Sound of Freedom T-15 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .677x (2.23m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 2.343x (1.81m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/17/2023 at 9:26 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-24	Jax	5	67	6	92	10,608	0.87%
		Phx	6	58	8	58	11,155	0.52%
		Ral	8	54	13	88	8,344	1.05%
	Total		19	179	27	238	30,107	0.79%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-22	Jax	3	3	4	32	418	7.66%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	363	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	10	111	9.01%
	Total		6	6	4	42	892	4.71%
	T-23	Jax	5	7	4	60	1,407	4.26%
		Phx	1	1	5	31	410	7.56%
		Ral	1	1	0	31	261	11.88%
	Total		7	9	9	122	2,078	5.87%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-24 comps

 - JW3 Total - .207x (3.73m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.78x (6.05m)

 - Black Widow - .406x (5.36m)

 

Not many good comps this far out yet.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-23	Jax	5	67	4	96	10,608	0.90%
		Phx	6	58	6	64	11,155	0.57%
		Ral	8	54	14	102	8,344	1.22%
	Total		19	179	24	262	30,107	0.87%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-21	Jax	3	3	0	32	418	7.66%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	363	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	2	12	111	10.81%
	Total		6	6	2	44	892	4.93%
	T-22	Jax	5	7	7	67	1,407	4.76%
		Phx	1	1	1	32	410	7.80%
		Ral	1	1	0	31	261	11.88%
	Total		7	9	8	130	2,078	6.26%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-23 comps

 - JW3 Total - .217x (3.91m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.84x (6.25m)

 - Black Widow - .401x (5.3m)

 - Avatar 2 - .446x (7.58m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.27m

Edited June 20, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex

[JWR]

Any update on how Joy Ride is tracking?

[TheFlatLannister]

32 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-23	Jax	5	67	4	96	10,608	0.90%
		Phx	6	58	6	64	11,155	0.57%
		Ral	8	54	14	102	8,344	1.22%
	Total		19	179	24	262	30,107	0.87%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-21	Jax	3	3	0	32	418	7.66%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	363	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	2	12	111	10.81%
	Total		6	6	2	44	892	4.93%
	T-22	Jax	5	7	7	67	1,407	4.76%
		Phx	1	1	1	32	410	7.80%
		Ral	1	1	0	31	261	11.88%
	Total		7	9	8	130	2,078	6.26%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-24 comps

 - JW3 Total - .217x (3.91m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.84x (6.25m)

 - Black Widow - .401x (5.3m)

 - Avatar 2 - .446x (7.58m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.27m

MI7 does not scream $100M to me (even with all the EA) 

 

maybe $80M? 

[Maggie]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

MI7 does not scream $100M to me (even with all the EA) 

 

maybe $80M? 

80M for five days?

[TheFlatLannister]

9 minutes ago, Maggie said:

80M for five days?

The five day opening makes this very hard to project (as Tuesday Wednesday will take demand away from the 3 day weekend) 

so I won’t make any real predictions, but $100M five day does not seem feasible from the numbers I have and other trackers are posting 

 

[ringedmortality]

I thought the MI movies were always quite backloaded though 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

I thought the MI movies were always quite backloaded though 

Not this time, i think. Oppenheimer/Barbie will cut its legs. Plus the loss of IMAX

[kayumanggi]

 

[ZackM]

On 6/13/2023 at 8:00 PM, ZackM said:

 

Issues from yesterday seem to have worked themself out.

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	Previous 3 Days
Showings Added	0	0	11
Seats Added	0	0	1,677
Seats Sold	1,273	429	2,290
6/12/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	421	2,473	30,878	504,494	6.12%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	2	3	9	18
ATP	Gross
$18.73	$578,345

 

 

 

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	1	0
Seats Added	0	0	0	141	0
Seats Sold	934	1,189	968	864	655
6/17/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	421	2,474	35,488	504,635	7.03%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	5	11	26
ATP	Gross
$18.64	$661,496

[Tinalera]

Indy 5

Thurs June 29 Fri June 30 (T-12)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

(Missed T-12 for DND, added Fast X, where I can put DND and Fast X together for comps will do so)

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	24	282	5383	5665	0.0497
Fri	4	28	162	6094	6256	0.0258
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	8	128	1940	2068	0.0618
Fri	3	11	447	3522	3969	0.1126

 

GOTG 3

 

			#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	18	1121	5938	7059	0.1588
	Fri	3	16	723	9261	9984	0.0724
	1		6
Montreal		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	15	763	4383	5146	0.1482
	Fri	3	18	463	6109	6572	0.0704

 

 

Total Seat Availablity difference

 

	T T	T F	M T	M F
INDY	5665	6256	2068	3969
GOTG 3	7059	9984	5416	6572
diff	-1394	-3728	-3348	-2603

 

 

Fast X 

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	22	372	4536	4908	0.0757
Fri	4	33	283	6447	6730	0.0420
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	18	127	5084	5211	0.0243
Fri	3	22	130	6673	6803	0.0191

 

	T T	T F	M T	M F
INDY	5665	6256	2068	3969
Fast X	4908	6730	5211	6803
diff	757	-474	-3143	-2834

[M37]

Indiana Jones T-12 Preview Average

 

For now, not including Drafthouse in the average, as every comp for that sample is in double digits, with many close to $20M - clearly running extremely hot

 

Whole lot of mostly straight lines over the last week plus against these comps, which means the pace is matching and therefore is likely to continue to do so. However, neither Flash nor JWD had a great final week, and Wick 4 is rated R, and could see Indy playing better to families and casuals and coming in slightly ahead of where its heading at present

 

All together, sure seems like $8M-$9M previews incoming to me, barring a strong catalyst and finishing kick to made a push for $10M

[Joyous Legion]

I do put reasonable stock in a better final week than those comps, been eyeballing 8.5-10. Perhaps *7.5-9?

[filmlover]

Showtimes are starting to appear for Barbie, starts at 3:00 that Thursday (and also getting solid 3 screen bookings for the weekend at multiplexes, indicating the strong tracking for it is real after all). Also at least at AMC there will be Early Access screenings that Wednesday.

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Screenings at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

Edited June 18, 2023 by filmlover

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

I do put reasonable stock in a better final week than those comps, been eyeballing 8.5-10. Perhaps *7.5-9?

Bit of a catch-22: don’t expect Indy to draw in the younger & diverse audience that drives a lot of final week/walk-up sales for these comps, but also should be more GA friendly & less metro heavy, so should mostly wash out $ value wise. But without TGM level reviews to grab everyone (which comps to ~$9.5M for Alpha Thursday only), have a difficult time seeing $10M from here 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/8/2023 at 1:13 PM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Even 59 vs 58 not out of the question 👀

 This aged well @Into the Legion-Verse

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 This aged well @Into the Legion-Verse

The 4x knock with no positive reacts 😂

[rehpyc]

What kind of IM is expected for a film like Indy?

[el sid]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Previews are strong imo. Not sure about the IM

 

Maybe @el sid or @M37 will have OW projections 

Hopefully tomorrow I can say more.
I counted Asteroid City today but it still had too few theaters for an OW projection (only 3 for Thursday and 4 for Friday). It also gets surprisingly small cinema halls (so far) which are often pretty crowded so I think on Monday or at the latest on Wednesday they will add some (or many) showtimes.

It had today in 3 theaters (the AMCs in Michigan, Arizona and San Francisco) 118 sold tickets for Thursday.
Comp: Amsterdam had on Monday of the release week = 1 day later 84 sold tickets in the same 3 theaters.

And for Friday it had 155 sold tickets in 4 theaters.

Comp: Amsterdam (6.4M OW) had on Monday of the release week 68 sold tickets in the same 4 theaters.

[Flip]

2 hours ago, rehpyc said:

What kind of IM is expected for a film like Indy?

Probably around JWD levels (8x)? Seems like Indy will get around the same reception and they’re both finales to a GA-friendly franchise. NTTD did 8.7x in 2021 so I think the range for Indy is around 8x