The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Daf]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Important that everyone keep in mind that this is going to be a 5 day holiday weekend with folks enjoying extra time off on Monday and Tuesday (4th of July/). It's possible Indiana Jones might (will?) underperform but also that it might be more backloaded than would otherwise be the case, especially given the age of this particular franchise (and Ford himself).

For whatever it's worth, Crystal Skull also had a curiously backloaded opening weekend, owing in large part to Memorial Day and the atypical Thursday opening. Its Sunday was bigger than either its first or second day, and Memorial Day Monday was still bigger than its opening day!

 

It's possible that the Star Wars prequels were well and truly the only movies that could get the Thursday opening to "work" and not just siphon off from Friday, but Crystal Skull was a decades-long awaited generational dream sequel, you wouldn't think opening a day earlier than usual would matter that much. It does come off a bit like its audience was a bit more leisurely in coming out for it

[abracadabra1998]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Anecdotal, and perhaps the July 21 releases are just more pre-sale heavy, but I’ve been sampling theatres across Canada’s biggest cities for the past hour, and pretty consistently Oppenheimer AND Barbie have both sold far more tickets for Thursday than Indy has sold even 2 days out, and that MI7 has sold. 
 

A few possibilities. These movies are just social media beasts, and are going to be insanely presale heavy. OR we could be looking at 2 massive openings on the same weekend (like, 60M+ apiece… Oppenheimer is catnip for Boomers and GenX). OR we are in for 2 massive bombs/disappointments with Indy and MI7.

 

Another trend. Across the weekend (Thursday-Sunday) Barbie is ahead of Oppenheimer in terms of # tickets sold on the West Coast/Toronto, but everywhere else Oppenheimer is ahead. Wonder if this will translate to the US (LA/NYC heavily skewed Barbie, but flyover US will be more Oppenheimer).

 

In the twin cities, Barbie total previews (with EA) has more sold than Oppenheimer, but Wednesday counts for a whopping two-thirds of its total pre-sales, which is pretty insane frontloadedness. I'm really eager to see if this is the case elsewhere or just here

[Ledmonkey96]

I'd count Ruby Gillman tickets for the weekend but it hasn't actually sold any tickets across a total of 15 showings so far.... presales starting even earlier than Elemental will presumably hurt it a bit as well wouldn't it?

[Porthos]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:36 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	53	7490	8250	760	9.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

13

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	44.97		60	1690		0/171	22094/23784	7.11%		10966	6.93%		8.09m
BP2	13.53		121	5619		1/294	31400/37019	15.18%		16800	4.52%		3.79m
FX	101.88		23	746		0/182	26954/27700	2.69%		4122	18.44%		7.64m
Indy 5	95.96		12	792		0/124	18735/19527	4.06%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       151/2968  [5.09% sold]
Matinee:          11/81  [13.58% | 1.45% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                  376/776 [+0 tickets] [49.47% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:     254/4100 [+0 tickets] [33.42% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           130/3374 [+13 tickets] [17.11% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	53	7470	8250	780	9.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

20

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	45.56		22	1712		0/171	22072/23784	7.20%		10966	7.11%		8.20m
BP2	13.67		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	4.64%		3.83m
FX	103.31		9	755		0/182	26945/27700	2.73%		4122	18.92%		7.75m
Indy 5	93.30		44	836		0/124	18688/19524	4.28%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:      157/2968  [5.29% sold]
Matinee:          11/81  [13.58% | 1.41% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 383/776 [+7 tickets] [49.10% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    256/4100 [+2 tickets] [32.82% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           141/3374 [+11 tickets] [18.08% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:37 AM, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	23454	24370	916	3.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

31

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	144.25		73	635		0/136	20744/21379	2.97%		3737	24.51%		8.94m
JWD	39.38		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		10966	8.35%		7.09m
Ava 2	35.15		98	2606		0/142	18732/21338	12.21%		8986	10.19%		5.98m
Wick 4	89.54		54	1023		0/88	12307/13330	7.67%		5448	16.81%		7.97m
FX	101.10		36	906		0/178	26804/27710	3.27%		4122	22.22%		7.58m
Indy 5	82.08		10	1116		0/128	19125/20241	5.51%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:         143/7967  [1.79% sold]
Matinee:        17/1687  [1.01% | 1.86% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    150/6018  [2.49% | 16.38% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          61/457 [13.35% sold] [+0 tickets]
Mon:    462/2256 [20.48% sold] [+18 tickets]
Tue:    393/21657 [1.81% sold] [+13 tickets]

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	23412	24380	968	3.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

52

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	143.62		39	674		0/136	20705/21379	3.15%		3737	25.90%		8.90m
JWD	39.92		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	8.83%		7.19m
Ava 2	35.92		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	10.77%		6.11m
Wick 4	89.05		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	17.77%		7.93m
FX	102.11		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	23.48%		7.66m
Indy 5	82.81		53	1169		0/128	19072/20241	5.78%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:          158/7967  [1.98% sold]
Matinee:        19/1687  [1.13% | 1.96% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    164/5954  [2.75% | 16.94% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          61/457 [13.35% sold] [+0 tickets]
Mon:    479/2256 [21.23% sold] [+17 tickets]
Tue:    428/21667 [1.98% sold] [+35 tickets]

[Porthos]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:38 AM, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	96	11684	12627	943	7.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

70

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	55.80		60	1690		0/171	22094/23784	7.11%		10966	8.60%		10.04m
Scream 6	283.18		29	333		0/65	7216/7549	4.41%		3134	30.09%		16.14m
FX	126.41		23	746		0/182	26954/27700	2.69%		4122	22.88%		9.48m
TLM	129.00		60	731		0/154	21263/21994	3.32%		6561	14.37%		13.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     225/4246  [5.30% sold]
Matinee:    33/1757  [1.88% | 3.50% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:    279/423 [65.96% sold] [+5 tickets sold]
Thr:    664/12204 [5.44% sold] [+65 tickets sold]

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	96	11626	12626	1000	7.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

57

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	58.41		22	1712		0/171	22072/23784	7.20%		10966	9.12%		10.51m
Scream 6	296.74		4	337		0/65	7212/7549	4.46%		3134	31.91%		16.91m
FX	132.45		9	755		0/182	26945/27700	2.73%		4122	24.26%		9.93m
TLM	126.58		59	790		0/154	21201/21991	3.59%		6561	15.24%		13.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     233/4245  [5.49% sold]
Matinee:    31/1757  [1.76% | 3.10% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:      303/422 [71.80% sold] [+24 tickets sold]
Thr:    697/12204 [5.71% sold] [+33 tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:39 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	134	18442	20709	2267	10.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

230

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	133.12		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	60.66%		8.25m
JWD	43.03		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	20.67%		7.75m
BA	120.20		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	50.45%		9.14m
Wick 4	98.35		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	41.61%		8.75m
FX	126.37		159	1794		0/179	26350/28144	6.37%		4122	55.00%		9.48m
TLM	74.21		358	3055		0/177	22304/25359	12.05%		6561	34.55%		7.64m
Flash	103.23		173	2196		0/178	22946/25142	8.73%		5327	42.56%		10.01m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     472/6084  [7.76% sold]
Matinee:    209/1728  [12.09% | 9.22% of all tickets sold]

 

===

Did better than The Flash on T-4 Sunday, at least.  So it's got that goin' for it — which is nice.

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	21009	23534	2525	10.73%

 

Total Showings Added Today	24
Total Seats Added Today	2825
Total Seats Sold Today	258

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	134.24		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	67.57%		8.32m
JWD	41.65		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	23.03%		7.50m
BA	116.25		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	56.19%		8.84m
Wick 4	95.39		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	46.35%		8.49m
FX	122.81		262	2056		0/228	30813/32869	6.26%		4122	61.26%		9.21m
TLM	71.39		482	3537		0/201	24221/27758	12.74%		6561	38.48%		7.35m
Flash	104.64		217	2413		0/193	23824/26237	9.20%		5327	47.40%		10.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       519/7294  [7.12% sold]
Matinee:    230/2168  [10.61% | 9.11% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

 

So I've had something of an irritating night tonight.  :--\

 

Folks might recall that a few weeks back I mentioned that Century Arden inexplicably yanked its Oppenheimer PLF showings as well as mentioning that they were taking forever to put up their PLF showings for Indy 5.  What I don't think I mentioned is that they started showing back up a week or so ago (maybe a week and a half), but with a ton of seats blacked out (as well as blacked out seats in a couple of other auditoriums).

 

Originally I figured there was some sort of mass seat replacement/repair or something similar going on. 

 

And, in a way, that is what happened.  What actually happened is that Century Arden installed a bunch of DBOX seating in a few of its auditoriums and started to flip the switch for them tonight.

 

Joy. 

 

(tracking DBOX is a PITA even in the best of situations)

 

Making life even better was 1] Fandango wasn't picking up these showings yet (kept giving me errors whenever I tried to load them), meaning I had to split time between Fandango and the corp site and figure out the brand new seat maps on the fly while adding all of the new showings that start to rollout on release week and 2] they're rolling this out in a haphazard manner. 

 

So far the new DBOX seats have been activated for the Tue night release of MI7 but not the EA showing on Monday and hasn't been activated for either Barbie or Oppenheimer, though I expect those in the next couple of days if not tomorrow.

 

This might mess with comps around the edges a bit, but Cen Arden is the busiest theater in town so it'll probably be swallowed up in aggregate.  Probably.  Does mean slightly fewer seats available at that theater, but meh.  Bit more concerned that DBOX seating won't sell as much as their regular seats did there, but again probably only matter at the margins.  Will boost PLF percentages locally, however.

 

Suppose if a theater can't add another PLF screen easily, they'll just start adding converting auditoriums to have partial DBOX (or similar) seating.

 

...

 

Again:  Joy. :--\

Edited June 27, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

6 hours ago, DAJK said:

Anecdotal, and perhaps the July 21 releases are just more pre-sale heavy, but I’ve been sampling theatres across Canada’s biggest cities for the past hour, and pretty consistently Oppenheimer AND Barbie have both sold far more tickets for Thursday than Indy has sold even 2 days out, and that MI7 has sold. 
 

A few possibilities. These movies are just social media beasts, and are going to be insanely presale heavy. OR we could be looking at 2 massive openings on the same weekend (like, 60M+ apiece… Oppenheimer is catnip for Boomers and GenX). OR we are in for 2 massive bombs/disappointments with Indy and MI7.

 

Another trend. Across the weekend (Thursday-Sunday) Barbie is ahead of Oppenheimer in terms of # tickets sold on the West Coast/Toronto, but everywhere else Oppenheimer is ahead. Wonder if this will translate to the US (LA/NYC heavily skewed Barbie, but flyover US will be more Oppenheimer).

 

I'm seeing the similar in my theatre.

 

Although, with no IMAX screen, there's no Oppenheimer for presales, but others that do are really strong. 

 

And my local theatre only had Barbie tickets get listed a half day later than most theatres, so it was behind others on pre-sales, but it's now sold as many as Indy for opening night as well.

[rehpyc]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

So I've had something of an irritating night tonight.  :--\

 

Folks might recall that a few weeks back I mentioned that Century Arden inexplicably yanked its Oppenheimer PLF showings as well as mentioning that they were taking forever to put up their PLF showings for Indy 5.  What I don't think I mentioned is that they started showing back up a week or so ago (maybe a week and a half), but with a ton of seats blacked out (as well as blacked out seats in a couple of other auditoriums).

 

Originally I figured there was some sort of mass seat replacement/repair or something similar going on. 

 

And, in a way, that is what happened.  What actually happened is that Century Arden installed a bunch of DBOX seating in a few of its auditoriums and started to flip the switch for them tonight.

 

Joy. 

 

(tracking DBOX is a PITA even in the best of situations)

 

Making life even better was 1] Fandango wasn't picking up these showings yet (kept giving me errors whenever I tried to load them), meaning I had to split time between Fandango and the corp site and figure out the brand new seat maps on the fly while adding all of the new showings that start to rollout on release week and 2] they're rolling this out in a haphazard manner. 

 

So far the new DBOX seats have been activated for the Tue night release of MI7 but not the EA showing on Monday and hasn't been activated for either Barbie or Oppenheimer, though I expect those in the next couple of days if not tomorrow.

 

This might mess with comps around the edges a bit, but Cen Arden is the busiest theater in town so it'll probably be swallowed up in aggregate.  Probably.  Does mean slightly fewer seats available at that theater, but meh.  Bit more concerned that DBOX seating won't sell as much as their regular seats did there, but again probably only matter at the margins.  Will boost PLF percentages locally, however.

 

Suppose if a theater can't add another PLF screen easily, they'll just start adding converting auditoriums to have partial DBOX (or similar) seating.

 

...

 

Again:  Joy. :--\

4DX is a big deal for Regal, and Cinemark has become pretty aggressive in its DBOX rollout as a result.

[M37]

16 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Can someone here give me a ELI5 look at next month's films? The Box Office Subreddit seems to believe everything except Disney will succeed.

 

I know the real answer is more nuanced, and I'd love someone here to give me the real outlook on July.

For the films on sale, my general thoughts:

 

Indy - an opening in the $50M+ range, but should have a better first week than Flash due to the holidays ($80M+), and probably leg out much better overall, but likely still under $200M domestic finish

 

Ruby Gillman - looks basically DOA, on Paws of Fury level single digit OW, but as the only family film on the slate for weeks, might hang around for a while,

 

MI7 - currently cruising towards an approximate $7M preview, including Walmart and EA shows (but probably lower in $ value once factoring in Discount Tuesday pricing). That's probably enough for something around an $80M (?) opening (through Sunday), but not enough for $100M 5-day

 

Oppenheimer - sales are solid, but pace has slowed once PLF (especially 70mm) starting filling up. A bit more wait and see, but preview of maybe $6-$7M, but thinking lower IM, so enough for $35M-$45M OW, with room to go higher.

 

Barbie - sales are through the roof, but an usual film/demo draw, so difficult to make  precise conclusions other than Thursday is going to be huge: prob over $10M, if not well over. Should clear Transformers ($60M) for OW, but how the ceiling goes beyond that is not yet clear. Easily the best left to clear $200M (maybe even $300M ...)

tl;dr - the dad-action male skewing films all look OK, but nothing spectacular, while  women are all flocking en masse to Barbie. Bet on pink

[M37]

Don't know if this means anything or helps add perspective but here's how Oppenheimer and Barbie sales look as compared to MI7, opening 10 days earlier, in each tracking sample (ratio as compared to MI7)

 

 

With Drafthouse, where lack of PLF (so no EA for MI7) lowers the baseline, but has merch for Barbie and is generally going nuts for it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

For the films on sale, my general thoughts:

 

Indy - an opening in the $50M+ range, but should have a better first week than Flash due to the holidays ($80M+), and probably leg out much better overall, but likely still under $200M domestic finish

 

Ruby Gillman - looks basically DOA, on Paws of Fury level single digit OW, but as the only family film on the slate for weeks, might hang around for a while,

 

MI7 - currently cruising towards an approximate $7M preview, including Walmart and EA shows (but probably lower in $ value once factoring in Discount Tuesday pricing). That's probably enough for something around an $80M (?) opening (through Sunday), but not enough for $100M 5-day

 

Oppenheimer - sales are solid, but pace has slowed once PLF (especially 70mm) starting filling up. A bit more wait and see, but preview of maybe $6-$7M, but thinking lower IM, so enough for $35M-$45M OW, with room to go higher.

 

Barbie - sales are through the roof, but an usual film/demo draw, so difficult to make  precise conclusions other than Thursday is going to be huge: prob over $10M, if not well over. Should clear Transformers ($60M) for OW, but how the ceiling goes beyond that is not yet clear. Easily the best left to clear $200M (maybe even $300M ...)

tl;dr - the dad-action male skewing films all look OK, but nothing spectacular, while  women are all flocking en masse to Barbie. Bet on pink

 

That said...Barbie still is showing limited and PLF ignored, right?  It could end up with the same problem Spidey had this month - a big underset for opening weekend that theaters try to correct on the fly (so the weekend keeps growing) and some big weekdays afterwards in spillover...

Edited June 27, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[vafrow]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

Don't know if this means anything or helps add perspective but here's how Oppenheimer and Barbie sales look as compared to MI7, opening 10 days earlier, in each tracking sample (ratio as compared to MI7)

 

 

With Drafthouse, where lack of PLF (so no EA for MI7) lowers the baseline, but has merch for Barbie and is generally going nuts for it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is there any ATP adjustments, or is this straight ticket volumes?

 

Between the Oppenheimer IMAX premiums and MI7 Tuesday discounts, there's going to be a lot of variability there that's hard to parse out (I'm not going to bother with my tracking). But, it highlights how much farther MI7 needs to go to stay pace with the others.

[vale9001]

what is the "usual film/demo draw" for Barbie?. Why are you still treating it like it's twilight or fault of our stars? 💀. I'm reading everywhere people saying "i'm buying tickets for my kids". It's gonna be huge on families, not only for these 25-35 old year gays or millennial women. Do you think this big presale it's because of this very specific film twitter target?. 

 

if this movie it's not gonna get 100M it's only because the industry decided to push on premium screens  action movies sequels with less demand. And it's really unexpected btw 🙄

Edited June 27, 2023 by vale9001

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

With Drafthouse, where lack of PLF (so no EA for MI7) lowers the baseline, but has merch for Barbie and is generally going nuts for it

Apart from merch sales, Drafthouse will anyways overindex for “director movies”. Greta being one such director.

 

If you wanna add MiniTC2

 

MI7 - 1053 without Walmart. Would be around 1300

Barbie - 2715

Oppy - 1283

Edited June 27, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[Redolent]

19 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

what is the "usual film/demo draw" for Barbie?. Why are you still treating it like it's twilight or fault of our stars? 💀. I'm reading everywhere people saying "i'm buying tickets for my kids". It's gonna be huge on families, not only for these 25-35 old year gays or millennial women. Do you think this big presale it's because of this very specific film twitter target?. 

 

if this movie it's not gonna get 100M it's only because the industry decided to push on premium screens  action movies sequels with less demand. And it's really unexpected btw 🙄

People are making a mistake thinking this is a movie for families. It’s not. There has been enough feedback from the April test screenings (from both people who loved the movie, and those who didn’t) and they all say that this will not play well to kids. The content is too mature for anyone under 14 to really be engaged. WOM / Cinemascore will make this clear enough. 

[vale9001]

24 minutes ago, Redolent said:

People are making a mistake thinking this is a movie for families. It’s not. There has been enough feedback from the April test screenings (from both people who loved the movie, and those who didn’t) and they all say that this will not play well to kids. The content is too mature for anyone under 14 to really be engaged. WOM / Cinemascore will make this clear enough. 

 

it's a pg-13 Barbie movie for families. Read the time article. The journalist wrote it has appeal for adults but it's a Barbie movie for everyone.

Also it has merchandising for little girls. 

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by vale9001

[Eric is Quiet]

Something I do want to bring up for both Indy and Mission: Impossible (even Oppenheimer if M37's 35-45 OW comes into fruition) is that these movies are reliant on old white guys who don't go to the movies anymore. Almost every big movie that comes out skews towards the 18-34 crowd, arthouse fare aimed at youngsters have typically been the only notable hits (Asteroid City, Past Lives), Caucasian viewer percentages have gotten smaller and smaller and smaller. A big chunk of old Gen Xers and boomers who likely went to the movies more frequently have stuck with their 4K TVs and soundbars and don't want to deal with people out there. I know from experience from my own boomer parents, who I've taken to see movies with less and less. When my mom said we're gonna skip our annual Christmas tradition of going to the theater to see a movie and instead watch something at home, that was a big sign things were changing.

 

And obviously I don't think Indiana Jones or Oppenheimer or whatever would be massive, gigantic hits if old white guys were active at the movies, but that is something to ponder over for the rest of the year and beyond. Will certainly make the next few years of box office a lot more interesting. And I'm sure producers for stuff like James Bond or Superman or Star Wars are trying to figure out how to make these dinosaurs "hip" with today's kids.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/26/2023 at 9:11 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-3	Jax	6	64	37	496	10,205	4.86%
		Phx	6	44	35	321	8,381	3.83%
		Ral	8	60	40	549	8,644	6.35%
	Total		20	168	112	1,366	27,230	5.02%
Ruby Gillman	T-3	Jax	5	20	2	16	2,196	0.73%
		Phx	6	24	1	10	2,236	0.45%
		Ral	7	27	5	22	2,563	0.86%
	Total		18	71	8	48	6,995	0.69%

 

Ruby Gillman T-3 comps

 - Bad Guys - .5x (575k)

 - Super Pets - .276x (607k)

 - Elemental  .165x (396k)

 - Lyle Lyle - .941x (541k)

 - Paws of Fury - .889x (449k)

 - Boss Baby 2 - .48x (629k)

 - Encanto - .251x (377k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .552x (497k)

 - Strange World - .842x (674k)

 

Size adjusted average - 586k

 

With sales this small, even eight new tickets is enough to move the needle a little bit.  Sales are right in line with Lyle Lyle Crocodile and Paws of Fury.   Thinking somewhere in the ~500k -> 6.5m weekend range. 

 

Indiana Jones T-3 comps

 - F9 - .943x (6.7m)

 - JWD - .322x (5.7m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.493x (6.2m)

 - Uncharted - 2.021x (7.48m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .809x (7.12m)

 - The Lost City (Total) - 3.01x (9.78m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.88m

 

I'm hesitant to put a prediction out for Indiana Jones because I still think it will have a big ramp up on Wed/Thu.  3-day growth is right around most of the comps so I think that's a good sign for 7m to happen if that continues.  Holding out hope that it gets closer to 8m though.

 

3-Day Growth

 - Indiana Jones - 27%

 - F9 - 28%

 - JWD - 26.3%

 - Transformers - 27.3%

 - Uncharted - 21%

 - Lost City - 39%!

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-2	Jax	6	69	91	587	11,023	5.33%
		Phx	6	44	111	432	8,381	5.15%
		Ral	8	62	78	627	8,806	7.12%
	Total		20	175	280	1,646	28,210	5.83%
Ruby Gillman	T-2	Jax	5	22	3	19	2,326	0.82%
		Phx	6	24	5	15	2,236	0.67%
		Ral	7	27	5	27	2,563	1.05%
	Total		18	73	13	61	7,125	0.86%

 

Ruby Gillman T-2 comps

 - Bad Guys - .508x (585k)

 - Super Pets - .288x (633k)

 - Elemental  .167x (400k)

 - Lyle Lyle - 1.109x (638k)

 - Paws of Fury - .897x (453k)

 - Boss Baby 2 - .421x (551k)

 - Encanto - .252x (378k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .587x (528k)

 - Strange World - 1.017x (813k)

 

Size adjusted average - 635k

 

Indiana Jones T-2 comps

 - F9 - .951x (6.76m)

 - JWD - .325x (5.76m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.509x (6.26m)

 - Uncharted - 2.12x (7.83m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .834x (7.34m)

 - The Lost City (Total) - 2.93x (9.52m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.96m

 

I'm hesitant to put a prediction out for Indiana Jones because I still think it will have a big ramp up on Wed/Thu.  3-day growth is right around most of the comps so I think that's a good sign for 7m to happen if that continues.  Holding out hope that it gets closer to 8m though.

 

Solid day.  Above still applies...