The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

Fantastic Beasts 3 MTC2 previews  - 87521/504973 1123335.35 3347 shows. 

 

It did terribly yesterday. Thinking around 5.7m previews. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 MTC2 previews  - 87521/504973 1123335.35 3347 shows. 

 

It did terribly yesterday. Thinking around 5.7m previews. 

Only 25% ahead of Ghostbusters final...weird how MTCs are so horrible compared to regional data. But then Philly was also quite poor. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Joyous Legion]

Man, MTC1, MTC2, and harkins are weak… where the fuck would this get the gross for 6M? We just assume regal went nuts or something   

 

Won’t be surprised if it’s like, 5.4

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Man, MTC1, MTC2, and harkins are weak… where the fuck would this get the gross for 6M? We just assume regal went nuts or something   

 

Won’t be surprised if it’s like, 5.4

Could be a bit stronger in Regal + Canada. But yeah I'm probably gonna drop to like 5.5 based on that awful MTC2 #. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[XXR & Friends]

13 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Man, MTC1, MTC2, and harkins are weak… where the fuck would this get the gross for 6M? We just assume regal went nuts or something   

 

Won’t be surprised if it’s like, 5.4

Hmm, so it’ll be something like $16M full Friday and $38-40M OW.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Hmm, so it’ll be something like $16M full Friday and $38-40M OW.

If this happens yes, although the strange regional divergences for this movie have me less confident than usual in my estimation from MTC data 

[krla]

4 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Hmm, so it’ll be something like $16M full Friday and $38-40M OW.

That would be identical to Morbius, 

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

If this happens yes, although the strange regional divergences for this movie have me less confident than usual in my estimation from MTC data 

It would have a more frontloaded true Friday than The Batman (based on my count) to come in that low, which would surprise me. We will see how it goes.

[john2000]

 

[ViewerAnon]

14 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Hmm, so it’ll be something like $16M full Friday and $38-40M OW.

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

So it landed right in the middle of (MTCs+Harkins+Philly) and (Sacramento, Raleigh/Phoenix/Jacksonville, Canada). What an odd run, there was a big divergence in those comps and no clear reason why. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

So it landed right in the middle of (MTCs+Harkins+Philly) and (Sacramento, Raleigh/Phoenix/Jacksonville, Canada). What an odd run, there was a big divergence in those comps and no clear reason why. 

For my areas, it fell closer to Ghostbusters (6m), Eternals (6.09m) and Black Widow (6.08m) based on my final runs.  I'm just gonna blame everything on the 2pm previews and move on.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 MTC2 previews  - 87521/504973 1123335.35 3347 shows. 

 

It did terribly yesterday. Thinking around 5.7m previews. 

A - 1.62
2 - 1.12
R say 1.1

3.85.

 

Looks like $5.75M best case.
 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/14/2022 at 11:05 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-2	TUWoMT (Sat EA)	Jacksonville	1	1	88	13	3	14.77%
		Raleigh	1	1	58	7	2	12.07%
	TUWoMT (Sat EA) Total		2	2	146	20	5	13.70%
T-21	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	155	24,173	2,553	50	10.56%
		Phoenix	6	131	19,512	2,767	49	14.18%
		Raleigh	8	124	14,960	3,080	71	20.59%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	410	58,645	8,400	170	14.32%
T-7	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	26	3,134	17	0	0.54%
		Phoenix	5	14	1,973	13	0	0.66%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,367	28	3	2.05%
	The Bad Guys Total		18	54	6,474	58	3	0.90%
T-7	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	14	1,868	67	12	3.59%
		Phoenix	5	9	1,229	56	14	4.56%
		Raleigh	6	6	675	35	1	5.19%
	The Northman Total		18	29	3,772	158	27	4.19%
T-7	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	12	1,550	12	3	0.77%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,026	11	5	1.07%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,005	4	0	0.40%
	TUWoMT Total		19	29	3,581	27	8	0.75%

 

TUWoMT T-2 EA comps
 - Lost City (EA) - 1.34x (1m) (9 shows)

 - Ghostbusters (EA) - 3.74x (1.3m) (2 shows)

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - .43x (545k) (8 shows)

 - NTTD (EA) - missed

 

Northman T-7 comps

 - Green Knight - 3.76x (2.82m)

 - Ghostbusters - .27x (1.14)

 - Morbius - .202x (1.15m)

 - No Time to Die - .23x (1.2m)

 

Bad Guys T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .105x (525k)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.56x (14.85m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.05x (18.03m)

 - Black Widow - 1.14x (15.06m)

 - No Way Home - .242x (12.11m)

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-1	TUWoMT (Sat EA)	Jacksonville	1	1	88	13	0	14.77%
		Raleigh	1	1	58	12	5	20.69%
	TUWoMT (Sat EA) Total		2	2	146	25	5	17.12%
T-20	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	155	24,173	2,661	108	11.01%
		Phoenix	6	131	19,512	2,847	80	14.59%
		Raleigh	8	124	14,960	3,165	85	21.16%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	410	58,645	8,673	273	14.79%
T-6	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	26	3,134	17	0	0.54%
		Phoenix	5	16	2,221	16	3	0.72%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,367	29	1	2.12%
	The Bad Guys Total		18	56	6,722	62	4	0.92%
T-6	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	14	1,868	79	12	4.23%
		Phoenix	5	9	1,229	60	4	4.88%
		Raleigh	6	6	675	41	6	6.07%
	The Northman Total		18	29	3,772	180	22	4.77%
T-6	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	12	1,550	17	5	1.10%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,026	19	8	1.85%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,005	7	3	0.70%
	TUWoMT Total		19	29	3,581	43	16	1.20%

 

TUWoMT T-1 EA (incl Wed EA) comps
 - Lost City (EA) - .91x (683k) (9 shows)

 - Ghostbusters (EA) - 3.27x (1.15m) (2 shows)

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - .38x (481k) (8 shows)

 - NTTD (EA) - missed

 

Northman T-6 comps

 - Green Knight - 3.6x (2.7m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Morbius - .215x (1.22m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 

Bad Guys T-6 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .103x (511k)

 - Encanto - .76x (1.13m)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.61x (15.34m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.12x (18.62m)

 - Black Widow - 1.18x (15.55m)

 - No Way Home - .25x (12.5m)

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

So it landed right in the middle of (MTCs+Harkins+Philly) and (Sacramento, Raleigh/Phoenix/Jacksonville, Canada). What an odd run, there was a big divergence in those comps and no clear reason why. 

 

 

That Sacto FB2 comp, tho... 

 

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

FB3 = 0.74015x FB2 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [Final] [6.1m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018 to 2022.

---

If Sacto was over-performing again and/or my new-ish system is putting too much of a thumb on the scale, then it's probably closer to 6.2m.  The FB2 comp is noteworthy, but there's been a ton of ticket inflation since late 2018, enough so that I think it's probably enough to counteract the observed pattern that Sacto is getting a bigger share of the DOM now than it was in 2019.  Still, if folks want a sign that Sacto over-performed again, there it is.

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/14/2022 at 11:40 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	FB3	PLF	25	235	1,152	6,066	18.99%	$14.64	$16,863.85
		Standard	45	234	863	6,034	14.30%	$11.60	$10,007.71
	FB3 Total		70	469	2,015	12,100	16.65%	$13.34	$26,871.56

 

Matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	FB3	N	50	384	1,780	8,364	21.28%	$13.77	$24,507.29
		Y	20	85	235	3,736	6.29%	$10.06	$2,364.27
	FB3 Total		70	469	2,015	12,100	16.65%	$13.34	$26,871.56

 

FB3 T-0 comps

 - Morbius - 1.02x (5.83m)

 - No Way Home - .101x (5.07m)

 - Batman (Thu only) - .27x (4.74m)

 - Batman + EA - .25x (5.49m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu only) - .997x (4.96m)

 - Sonic 2 + EA - .71x (4.43m)

 - Ambulance - 55.97x (39.2m)

 

Very strange seeing the gap between different regions.  Santikos are all located in and around San Antonio and seem to be pointing to a ~5m preview number.   While I probably should lower my prediction from my regional post, I'm sticking with it due to liking those comp movies a lot more than these.

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
FB3 (Fri)	PLF	40	2,008	2,008	9,744	20.61%	$13.97	$28,046.64
	Standard	73	1,316	1,316	9,245	14.23%	$10.49	$13,801.33
FB3 (Fri) Total		113	3,324	3,324	18,989	17.50%	$12.59	$41,847.97

 

Matinee

 

Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
FB3 (Fri)	N	61	2,075	2,075	10,177	20.39%	$13.94	$28,930.82
	Y	52	1,249	1,249	8,812	14.17%	$10.34	$12,917.15
FB3 (Fri) Total		113	3,324	3,324	18,989	17.50%	$12.59	$41,847.97

 

Straight Friday comps

 - Morbius - 1.347x (15.64m)

 - Spider-Man - .153x (11.01m)

 - Batman - .338x (11.82m)

 

Average = 12.82m

 

Adjusted Friday comps

 - Morbius - 16.09m

 - Spider-Man - 13.02m

 - Batman - 14.95m

 

Average = 14.69m

 

Morbius was the closest preview comp (5.83m) so that's promising.  Don't really like any of these as comps, but I don't have any others yet for Santikos.

[Porthos]

Got to admit, I'm frankly amazed that the adjusted Sacto FB2 comp came so close to the actual, given all of the changes in the market locally when it comes to new and different theaters that can't be easily adjusted away (I only adjust for theaters that didn't have tracked information at the time, but I don't adjust for new theaters in the region, nor ones that replaced another one).  FWIW, I still put a thumb of 10% on the scale, since Sacto still is getting a larger share of the DOM market now than it was in 2018/19, even with ticket inflation starting to eat into that difference.

 

As for why FB3 was wildly divergent between the MTCs and some regionals?  Oh, I tend to think the controversy surrounding that series might have... exasperated/enhanced pre-existing regional buying patterns (he said in an attempt to follow the "Good Post/Bad Post" structure laid out by Eric in the current Weekend Thread).

 

What that says about Sacto (especially since we turned our nose up at Joker), I'll leave to greater minds than my own when it comes to sociology*.

 

* It probably just says that we like the "Wizarding World" more here than others, and thus it followed the national average drop more than might have been expected given Sacto's demos.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Porthos

[Dragoncaine]

3 hours ago, krla said:

That would be identical to Morbius, 

$1 Morbillion here we come

Edited April 15, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[filmlover]

Is anyone else getting a feeling that The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent is gonna tank hard? Lionsgate seems to be in shambles these days (multiple movies have either been pushed back well into the future or sold to streaming, with their next release not coming out until September) and it seems like no one's talking about it despite the good reviews.

[Yandereprime101189]

Lionsgate has been on life support lately. Right now, it really only has John Wick.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Yandereprime101189