The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/15/2022 at 12:32 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-20	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	155	24,173	2,661	108	11.01%
		Phoenix	6	131	19,512	2,847	80	14.59%
		Raleigh	8	124	14,960	3,165	85	21.16%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	410	58,645	8,673	273	14.79%
T-6	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	26	3,134	17	0	0.54%
		Phoenix	5	16	2,221	16	3	0.72%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,367	29	1	2.12%
	The Bad Guys Total		18	56	6,722	62	4	0.92%
T-6	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	14	1,868	79	12	4.23%
		Phoenix	5	9	1,229	60	4	4.88%
		Raleigh	6	6	675	41	6	6.07%
	The Northman Total		18	29	3,772	180	22	4.77%
T-6	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	12	1,550	17	5	1.10%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,026	19	8	1.85%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,005	7	3	0.70%
	TUWoMT Total		19	29	3,581	43	16	1.20%

 

Northman T-6 comps

 - Green Knight - 3.6x (2.7m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Morbius - .215x (1.22m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 

Bad Guys T-6 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .103x (511k)

 - Encanto - .76x (1.13m)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.61x (15.34m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.12x (18.62m)

 - Black Widow - 1.18x (15.55m)

 - No Way Home - .25x (12.5m)

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New*	% Sold
T-17	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	155	24,173	2,817	156	11.65%
		Phoenix	6	131	19,512	3,004	157	15.40%
		Raleigh	8	124	14,960	3,418	253	22.85%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	410	58,645	9,239	566	15.75%
T-3	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	26	3,134	28	11	0.89%
		Phoenix	5	16	2,221	24	8	1.08%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,367	44	15	3.22%
	The Bad Guys Total		18	56	6,722	96	34	1.43%
T-3	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	14	1,868	122	43	6.53%
		Phoenix	5	9	1,229	87	27	7.08%
		Raleigh	7	8	888	79	38	8.90%
	The Northman Total		19	31	3,985	288	108	7.23%
T-3	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	12	1,550	42	25	2.71%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,026	33	14	3.22%
		Raleigh	7	11	1,184	33	26	2.79%
	TUWoMT Total		19	31	3,760	108	65	2.87%

*New sales since Friday*

 

TUWoMT T-3 comps

 - Ambulance - 1.8x (1.26m)

 - Stillwater - 4.154x (1.16m)

 - HWB - 2.4x (1.96m)

 

Northman T-3 comps

 - Green Knight - 3.31x (2.48m)

 - Ghostbusters - .315x (1.31m)

 - Morbius - .257x (1.46m)

 - Last Duel - 4.72x (1.65m)

 

Bad Guys T-3 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .108x (540k)

 - Encanto - .5x (754k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 1.1x (993k)

 - Boss Baby 2 - .96x (1.26m)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.72x (16.34m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.254x (19.83m)

 - Black Widow - 1.255x (16.57m)

 - No Way Home - .266x (13.32m)

Edited April 18, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
-m+k

[charlie Jatinder]

14 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

50 day run? For dinos? How come, Chief Universal?

As if finding comps weren't hard enough?

[charlie Jatinder]

14 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Poor @Porthos

May be Dominion has less than $5m previews and @Porthos can put it in ignore list.

[Brainbug]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

May be Dominion has less than $5m previews and @Porthos can put it in ignore list.

 

Hush away, evil spirit.

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

May be Dominion has less than $5m previews and @Porthos can put it in ignore list.

In all seriousness it's not obvious to me that TG2 will get a full porthos run

[Inceptionzq]

10 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Bad Guys T-3 comps

 - Encanto - .5x (754m)

[John2015]

It seem like "The Northman" is highly likely to open less than "The Witch", and it will be the biggest box office failure in the first half of 2022.

 

Variety and Deadline will use "The Northman" to declare that adult-driven films have no box office future (and those films should be made for streaming instead).

Edited April 18, 2022 by John2015

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Movie	Format	Shows	-	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
The Bad Guys	Standard	20	-	37	2,506	1.48%
The Northman	Standard	20	-	105	2,122	4.95%
TUWoMT	Standard	7	-	20	890	2.25%

 

Bad Guys T-3 comps

 - Sonic (Thu) - .05x (247k)

 - Sonic + EA - .034x (210k)

 - Fantastic Beasts - .033x (200k)

 

The Northman T-3 comps

 - Morbius - .111x (635k)

 - Fantastic Beasts - .095x (567k)

 - Sonic (Thu) - .14x (700k)

 - Sonic + EA - .095x (597k)

 

TUWoMT T-3 comps

 - Morbius - .02x (121k)

 - Fantastic Beasts - .018x (108k)

 - Sonic (Thu) - .027x (133k)

 - Sonic + EA - .018x (114k)

 

Massive Talent only showing in 3 of the theaters so numbers aren't great.  Still working on building my list of comps, but planning on doing Monday morning runs for new releases going forward.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 hours ago, John2015 said:

It seem like "The Northman" is highly likely to open less than "The Witch", and it will be the biggest box office failure in the first half of 2022.

 

Variety and Deadline will use "The Northman" to declare that adult-driven films have no box office future (and those films should be made for streaming instead).

None of my tracking, personal or here, indicates it is opening lower than 6 million

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

In all seriousness it's not obvious to me that TG2 will get a full porthos run

 

I've seen 70m-ish OW floated around by enough people that might know what they're talking about for me to grit my teeth at the beginning and just roll with it.  

 

Thankfully it only overlaps with MoM for about a day and a half or so, and I doubt it's gonna get a ton of screens up front, so it shouldn't be that bad.  Dreading the dino rollout though, as I suspect that while it won't get The Fully Monty Marvel when it comes to up front screens, it'll get enough to be irksome to track for 50 some days, especially when right next to a 330 screen monster like MoM.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Porthos

[XXR & Friends]

@Porthos I just realized that there’s a better than zero chance you’ll have to track JWD, Lightyear, L&T, Rise of Gru and perhaps Elvis; all at the same time.  

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

@Porthos I just realized that there’s a better than zero chance you’ll have to track JWD, Lightyear, L&T, Rise of Gru and perhaps Elvis; all at the same time.  

Elvis??? I don't think that's opening over even $15 mil.

Edited April 18, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[XXR & Friends]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Elvis??? I don't think that's opening over even $15 mil.

Oh I’ll take that bet. 

[YM!]

On 4/17/2022 at 12:04 PM, YourMother said:

Menomonee Falls update:

 

The Bad Guys has sold 28 tickets and has done about 25.5% of Sonic 2’s Thursday number ($1.28m without EA, $1.6m with it), which could indicate a 20m opening of lucky. 

So… you got fooled by a ticketing error on the website despite following it the past week….

 

Turns out The Bad Guys is at 7 tickets sold, or 6.36% of Sonic 2 ($318k without EA, $397k with it), so low to mid 10m I guess, maybe high 10m. Sigh.

[Noctis]

What are we seeing for FB3's Monday?

[XXR & Friends]

47 minutes ago, Noctis said:

What are we seeing for FB3's Monday?

Wrong thread for that. None of us are tracking or paying attention to it now.

[CJohn]

Elvis is a classic 10-12M opener in the current marketplace.

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Elvis is a classic 10-12M opener in the current marketplace.

Hmn... I have a feeling this COULD kinda break out. 

 

I'm going bold. 30M OW. It's just a feeling. 

[YM!]

Elvis appeals to the older crowd and is big for them. I’d be shocked if it opened under 20m.

[filmlover]

A Rocketman-esque performance sounds like the right expectation to have for Elvis.