The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Ryan Reynolds]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Eh... I’m starting to sense some Mikey Law coming into play.

 

9M previews. 23M true Friday.

9m Thursday plus ~5m+ EA?

[Shawn Robbins]

I wouldn't underestimate the walk-ups and middle America turnout on TGM just yet. But we'll see. Huge range of scenarios in play.

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, Borf the Borf said:

Whats MIkey Law?  I have tried googling no luck

Mickey's Law is a joke term I have concocted, a play on Murphy's Law. Basically, for the non-Disney studios, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. This is something I made up in 2019 when Disney demolished the whole competition and everybody was suffering, though you could argue the Law has been around since like 2016. I blame it on Universal winning the market share of 2015 despite all the Disney hits.

 

So essentially, Mickey's Law works out where every non-Disney film suffers in some way by the Law, whether it be a poor opening, going below expectations, having bad legs domestically, having bad legs overseas, you get the idea. Even films that seem like big hits have something bad within their numbers that happened in part from Mickey's Law. The only non-Disney titles not impacted by Mickey's Law are superhero movies from like Sony and DC Comics, and for the latter, that's only because the masses think every superhero is a Marvel thing. I know from experience, because I have to explain to my Dad every other month that Superman is not a Marvel character or The Suicide Squad isn't available on Disney+.

 

Disclaimer: Mickey's Law is just something silly I like to make up and isn't something to take seriously. I still like using it though.

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

9m Thursday plus ~5m+ EA?

Is early access really around 5M? I think i read around 3.8

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, Maggie said:

Is early access really around 5M? I think i read around 3.8

That was tues only, tues+wed should be 4.5-5ish

[Brainbug]

Mickeys Law is real but there is one franchise that promises us all salvation:

 

Top 10 DOM Movies in the last 10 years:

 

01. SW: TFA (Disney)

02. Endgame (Disney)

03. No Way Home (Sony ... but essentially Marvel/Disney as well lol)

04. Black Panther (Disney)

05. Infinity War (Disney)

06. Jurassic World (NOT Disney)

07. The Avengers (Disney)

08. SW: Last Jedi (Disney)

09. Incredibles 2 (Disney)

10. The Lion King 2019 (Disney) 

 

One is not like the others!

 

And its successcor will safe us on June 10th onwards 🙂

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Is early access really around 5M? I think i read around 3.8

the was Tuesday only , Wednesday added maybe another 1m

[XXR & Friends]

I’ve run the numbers for my theaters, but maybe I don’t want to post them? Maybe I want to leave you all longing for that sweet, sweet data?!

 

[Eric the Minion]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Mickeys Law is real but there is one franchise that promises us all salvation:

 

Top 10 DOM Movies in the last 10 years:

 

01. SW: TFA (Disney)

02. Endgame (Disney)

03. No Way Home (Sony ... but essentially Marvel/Disney as well lol)

04. Black Panther (Disney)

05. Infinity War (Disney)

06. Jurassic World (NOT Disney)

07. The Avengers (Disney)

08. SW: Last Jedi (Disney)

09. Incredibles 2 (Disney)

10. The Lion King 2019 (Disney) 

 

One is not like the others!

 

And its successcor will safe us on June 10th onwards 🙂

Hold your horses mah boi. Fallen Kingdom should have easily gotten 150M on its opening. But it didn't. Why did it not make over 150M? Mickey's Law.

 

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, Eric Belcher said:

Hold your horses mah boi. Fallen Kingdom should have easily gotten 150M on its opening. But it didn't. Why did it not make over 150M? Mickey's Law.

 

I recall Box Office Pro predicting 129M OW the week of its release. Lemme drink the JWD >>> MoM & Thor LAT tears

[M37]

41 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

First Maverick update:

 

Green is final.  Yellow is not final, but updated within the last hour.

 

Has added about 32k sales since my final presales run 5 or 6 hours ago.

 

 

Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	15,177	40.1%	68.0%		3:00-3:59	10,478	50.0%	88.2%
4:00-4:59	6,266	25.5%	71.0%		4:00-4:59	6,052	45.8%	157.6%
5:00-5:59	3,383	19.7%	45.5%		5:00-5:59	2,714	25.9%	60.4%
6:00-6:59	17,298	39.2%	120.1%		6:00-6:59	10,504	39.7%	114.5%
7:00-7:59	18,383	38.4%	47.7%		7:00-7:59	13,535	44.6%	56.0%
8:00-8:59	5,185	16.7%	21.9%		8:00-8:59	3,971	21.8%	35.6%
9:00-9:59	6,898	16.9%	55.0%		9:00-9:59	3,891	18.2%	58.6%
10:00-10:59	4,406	14.5%	49.5%		10:00-10:59	2,218	12.8%	47.8%
11:00-11:59	311	3.8%	3.0%		11:00-11:59	113	3.0%	1.9%
12:00+	74	1.5%	6.5%		12:00+	0	0.0%	0.0%
Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	4,163	72.8%	123.2%		3:00-3:59	7,778	38.8%	61.2%
4:00-4:59	1,512	44.3%	168.9%		4:00-4:59	4,448	37.4%	84.7%
5:00-5:59	835	31.7%	70.4%		5:00-5:59	1,747	16.9%	45.4%
6:00-6:59	3,578	50.0%	158.2%		6:00-6:59	7,697	33.8%	91.6%
7:00-7:59	3,857	55.6%	62.5%		7:00-7:59	8,319	35.6%	42.7%
8:00-8:59	1,046	26.5%	38.3%		8:00-8:59	2,919	17.8%	25.9%
9:00-9:59	1,142	21.1%	71.8%		9:00-9:59	4,071	19.7%	54.3%
10:00-10:59	628	14.6%	65.1%		10:00-10:59	2,857	15.9%	52.1%
11:00-11:59	66	9.4%	3.8%		11:00-11:59	422	5.8%	5.5%
12:00+	0	0.0%	-		12:00+	88	1.3%	5.4%

 

Those time zone comps are … interesting. Flyover country living up to its nickname, apparently

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, Eric Belcher said:

Hold your horses mah boi. Fallen Kingdom should have easily gotten 150M on its opening. But it didn't. Why did it not make over 150M? Mickey's Law.

 

It's reviews were a dumpster fire, weekend was affected a bit. 

 

But when people saw it, and realized how wrong critics were, it eventually did decent after the weekend. 417 million after 148 isn't so bad, for a darker and less crowd pleasing Jurassic Movie.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, THUNDER BIRD said:

It's reviews were a dumpster fire, weekend was affected a bit. 

 

But when people saw it, and realized how wrong critics were, it eventually did decent after the weekend. 417 million after 148 isn't so bad, for a darker and less crowd pleasing Jurassic Movie.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Wait is this first film actually defying Mickey's law.  👀

 

Was Jumanji 2 exempted from it? @Eric Belcher

[Borf the Borf]

Kinde jealous this guy getting a private screening at het 10:15 show, should I go spoil it?


Edit:

Edited May 27, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[Eric the Minion]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wait is this first film actually defying Mickey's law.  👀

 

Was Jumanji 2 exempted from it? @Eric Belcher

Without Mickey's Law, Jumanji 2 would have made more than TROS overseas. But that wasn't the case. THE LAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

[ZackM]

Maverick update #2:

 

Green is final.  Yellow is not final, but updated within the last hour.

 

Has added about 16k sales since my previous update.

 

 

Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	15,177	40.1%	68.0%		3:00-3:59	10,478	50.0%	88.2%
4:00-4:59	6,266	25.5%	71.0%		4:00-4:59	6,052	45.8%	157.6%
5:00-5:59	3,383	19.7%	45.5%		5:00-5:59	2,716	25.9%	60.4%
6:00-6:59	17,410	39.4%	120.9%		6:00-6:59	11,114	42.0%	121.2%
7:00-7:59	19,802	41.4%	51.4%		7:00-7:59	15,053	49.6%	62.3%
8:00-8:59	7,042	22.7%	29.7%		8:00-8:59	5,610	30.8%	50.3%
9:00-9:59	8,779	21.5%	70.0%		9:00-9:59	4,814	22.5%	72.5%
10:00-10:59	5,288	17.4%	59.4%		10:00-10:59	2,746	15.8%	59.2%
11:00-11:59	385	4.7%	3.7%		11:00-11:59	156	4.2%	2.7%
12:00+	88	1.8%	7.7%		12:00+	0	0.0%	0.0%
Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	4,163	72.8%	123.2%		3:00-3:59	7,778	38.8%	61.2%
4:00-4:59	1,512	44.3%	168.9%		4:00-4:59	4,567	38.4%	87.0%
5:00-5:59	968	36.7%	81.6%		5:00-5:59	2,223	21.5%	57.8%
6:00-6:59	3,910	54.7%	172.9%		6:00-6:59	8,364	36.7%	99.5%
7:00-7:59	4,304	62.1%	69.7%		7:00-7:59	9,018	38.5%	46.3%
8:00-8:59	1,317	33.4%	48.2%		8:00-8:59	3,389	20.7%	30.1%
9:00-9:59	1,353	25.0%	85.0%		9:00-9:59	4,530	21.9%	60.5%
10:00-10:59	745	17.3%	77.2%		10:00-10:59	3,163	17.6%	57.7%
11:00-11:59	70	9.9%	4.1%		11:00-11:59	447	6.1%	5.8%
12:00+	0	0.0%	-		12:00+	104	1.6%	6.4%

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by ZackM

[XXR & Friends]

Going with $19.5M full previews (Tues/Weds/Thurs). Looks like Canada and some of the more "liberal" markets are underperforming a bit compared to "The Batman" but the flyover states seem to be holding right around it or even stronger. 

 

Going with 19.5 - 34 - 41 - 37 - 29 for the 4-Days. 

[El Squibbonator]

2 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I've heard from some that have already seen it spoilers may actually be a big deal for this movie.

I can confirm it's because of spoilers. Someone leaked the movie's plot on Reddit, and thousands if not millions of people saw it before it was taken down. How do I know this? Because I was one of the people who saw the leak. And no, I won't say what was in it. 

Edited May 27, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 minutes ago, El Squibbonator said:

I can confirm it's because of spoilers. Someone leaked the movie's plot on Reddit, and thousands if not millions of people saw it before it was taken down. How do I know this? Because I was one of the people who saw the leak. And no, I won't say what was in it. 

 

what was in it?