The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[John2015]

22 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It's because studios like Neon do not do TV spots. they rely on reviews and social media presence as to say movie in marketing

Neon did TV spots sometime, like "Spencer" and even "The Worst Person in the World".  

"Crimes of the Future " will be lucky to open higher than "Spencer" ($2.1 million - 996 theaters opening)

 

I think TV marketing is still important, especially for arthouse films, since many older adult audience still watch TV.    And then,  TV marketing can be do cheaply (if the distributor know the target audience and spend accordingly). 

Recently, Sony Pictures Classics aired "The Duke" TV spots on some regional channels and (very few) cable networks, and the film can gross more than $1.3 million in limited release.  (good result since arthouse market is still recovering).

 

On the other hand, IFC have a very timely (and well-reviewed) abortion film "Happening".   But IFC did not do any TV spots, and the film flopped very hard at box office.  (I think it is a missing opportunity.  If IFC can air some TV spots on few cable channels like CNN and MSNBC, "Happening" could perform much better at box office.)

 

Edited June 2, 2022 by John2015

[el sid]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

^^^

@el sid please look at thursday for JWD. Friday PS is not that relevant as of today. It will have stronger true friday anyway as bar for JWD is higher than TGM OW. 

Yes, next week ;). In the last week I count both days. But I have to say that I often rather rely on the Friday numbers. If they are on par or higher than the preview presales it's a good sign (e.g. TG: M had higher Friday than Thursday presales). But if they already go down I'm sceptical.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

51 minutes ago, John2015 said:

Neon did TV spots sometime, like "Spencer" and even "The Worst Person in the World".  

"Crimes of the Future " will be lucky to open higher than "Spencer" ($2.1 million - 996 theaters opening)

 

I think TV marketing is still important, especially for arthouse films, since many older adult audience still watch TV.    And then,  TV marketing can be do cheaply (if the distributor know the target audience and spend accordingly). 

Recently, Sony Pictures Classics aired "The Duke" TV spots on some regional channels and (very few) cable networks, and the film can gross more than $1.3 million in limited release.  (good result since arthouse market is still recovering).

 

On the other hand, IFC have a very timely (and well-reviewed) abortion film "Happening".   But IFC did not do any TV spots, and the film flopped very hard at box office.  (I think it is a missing opportunity.  If IFC can air some TV spots on few cable channels like CNN and MSNBC, "Happening" could perform much better at box office.)

 

Spencer is a movie that already had money invested in an awards campaign. A Cronenberg horror film does not. This is not easily affordable for many studios

[ringedmortality]

Wonder if that means Neon won't have any TV spots this year since they don't have any awards contenders.

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crimes of Future	T-0	Jax	3	4	10	39	257	15.18%
		Phx	3	4	7	45	252	17.86%
		Ral	2	2	2	10	108	9.26%
	Total		8	10	19	94	617	15.24%
Watcher	T-0	Jax	2	2	0	4	77	5.19%
		Phx	4	5	7	9	555	1.62%
		Ral	2	3	0	4	207	1.93%
	Total		8	10	7	17	839	2.03%

 

Watcher comps are pointing to around 70k for previews.  Probably was too small to be worth tracking, but it only took a couple minutes so why not.

 

Crimes of Future T-0 comps

 - Resident Evil - .309x (289k)

 - Antlers - .797x (294k)

 - Firestarter - .635x (238k)

 - X - .42x (185k)

 

We should get a number for this one.  Tentative prediction is 250k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crimes of Future	1-Hr	Jax	3	4	16	55	257	21.40%
		Phx	3	4	1	46	252	18.25%
		Ral	2	2	11	21	108	19.44%
	Total		8	10	28	122	617	19.77%
Watcher	1-Hr	Jax	2	2	8	12	77	15.58%
		Phx	4	5	2	11	555	1.98%
		Ral	2	3	3	7	207	3.38%
	Total		8	10	13	30	839	3.58%

 

Watcher T-1 hr comps

 - Stillwater - .22x (63k)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - .08x (77k)

 - Old - .045x (68k)

All horror movies - 66.8k

All R movies - 58.5k

All movies - 60.7k

 

Prediction - 70k (won't report)

 

Crimes of Future T-1 hr comps

 - Resident Evil - .323x (303k)

 - Antlers - .642x (238k)

 - Firestarter - .542 (203k)

 - X - .36x (157k)

All horror movies - 271k

All R movies - 238k

All movies - 247k

 

Prediction - 250k

[M37]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you correcting me? I used to track Venom 2 back then daily at both MTC. I did not even post all the numbers and so I can see a trend. 

 

That said this does not mean its going to behave exactly like Venom rest of the run. But trend is there for sure. F9 I tracked as well and its PS was horrible at this point. It only made a move in the final week. 

I don't know that its "correcting" to have a different view of the data. Yes, both titles sold ~8K total tickets from T-10 to T-8 given the MTC numbers you have posted - that's factual.

 

But given that JWD had a much longer pre-sale period and significantly higher volume up to T-10, the daily rate of growth - what I personally would consider to be the trend - does not line up. JWD adding another ~172K tickets by T-0 at MTC1 (the same total Venom added from this point) would only be ~250K total, which would be pretty weak, no?

 

 

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	16	34	21	10	1
Seats Added	1,137	5,781	1,486	1,091	391
Seats Sold	4,138	4,359	3,182	2,674	2,322
6/2/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,357	82,330	768,484	10.71%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	14	49	118
ATP
$17.66

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

[Alex SciChannel]

How's the Morbius reissue looking like this weekend?😏

[John2015]

Just saw "Nope" TV spot during NBA final, so I guess the film won't get delayed. 

Edited June 3, 2022 by John2015

[Joyous Legion]

59 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

How's the Morbius reissue looking like this weekend?😏

Morbust

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

How's the Morbius reissue looking like this weekend?😏

[Eric the Minion]

On 6/1/2022 at 11:18 PM, Eric Mitchell said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2132	23705	8.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 115

 

Comp

2.128x of F9 T-8 (15.11M)

2.216x of Venom 2 T-8 (25.71M)

2.266x of No Time to Die T-8 (14.27M)

1.110x of Top Gun 2 T-8 (21.39M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2237	23705	9.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 105

 

Comp

2.120x of F9 T-7 (15.05M)

2.155x of Venom 2 T-7 (25M)

2.118x of No Time to Die T-7 (13.35M)

1.067x of Top Gun 2 T-7 (20.55

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	16	34	21	10	1
Seats Added	1,137	5,781	1,486	1,091	391
Seats Sold	4,138	4,359	3,182	2,674	2,322
6/2/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,357	82,330	768,484	10.71%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	14	49	118
ATP
$17.66

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

eww. It went down a bit. its still down from BW which was at 86623/542525. Plus went to 97755/564418 in next 2 days. Probably wont catch up until final week. 

[motionpic05]

I definitely think Dominion will be impacted by Top Gun's massive overperformance, mixed reviews, etc. 

I still feel like beating Fallen Kingdom's OW is a foregone conclusion at this point though. 

[John2015]

Correction: "Crimes of the Future" did have TV spot.  Some friends clarified that the film's TV spot was (at least) shown on TNT.

Edited June 3, 2022 by John2015

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	223	24183	27754	3571	12.87%

 

Total Showings Added Today	33
Total Seats Added Today	2530
Total Seats Sold Today	191

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	217.61		149	1641		0/108	15846/17487	9.38%		5847	61.07%		19.15m
NTTD	304.69		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	95.56%		18.89m
Dune	363.65		82	982		0/78	11060/12042	8.15%		2915	122.50%		18.55m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	254.95		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		4407	76.54%		18.95m
BW	97.12		204	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		9196	38.83%		13.42m
JWD (F9 adj)	---		180	3373		0/201	21645/25018	13.48%		---	---		---
JWD (BW adj)	---		186	3506		0/215	23630/27136	12.92%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (F9 adj) and JWD (BW adj) are the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's and BW's track, respectively.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.57464x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-8 [21.68m adj]
JW3 = 3.25938x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-8 [18.48m adj]
JW3 = 0.87692x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-8 [18.15m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       527/6145  [8.58% sold]
Matinee:    197/1535  [12.83% | 5.52% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	223	23869	27754	3885	14.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

314

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	101.86		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		9196	42.25%		14.08m
SC	219.00		133	1774		0/111	15837/17611	10.07%		5847	66.44%		19.27m
NTTD	298.39		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3737	103.96%		18.50m
Dune	370.71		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		2915	133.28%		18.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	259.48		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.65%		4407	83.25%		19.29m
JWD (F9 adj)	---		296	3669		0/201	21349/25018	14.67%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.60221x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [22.06m adj]
JW3 = 3.17758x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [18.02m adj]
JW3 = 0.88683x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [18.36m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       623/6145  [10.14% sold]
Matinee:    221/1535  [14.40% | 5.69% of all tickets sold]

[Juby]

11 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

 

 

Warner should do the same with The Batman to cross $370m dom.

[Borobudur]

11 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

 

Uncharted had similar expansion to even more theaters but nobody give a damn but Morbius seem gaining some cult status......

[Brainbug]

58 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Uncharted had similar expansion to even more theaters but nobody give a damn but Morbius seem gaining some cult status......

 

Its not merely a cult status, its a pop culture phenomenon and already the box office story of the century.

 

#MorbiusSweep #ItsMorbinTime

[Eric the Minion]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-minions-the-rise-of-gru/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/2/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	3-Day (FSS) Pinpoint Opening Forecast	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Domestic Total Pinpoint Forecast	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
6/10/2022	Jurassic World Dominion	$160,000,000 – $210,000,000	$180,000,000		$443,000,000 – $590,000,000	$503,000,000	-1%	Universal Pictures
6/17/2022	Lightyear	$90,000,000 – $120,000,000			$300,000,000 – $415,000,000			Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022	The Black Phone	$17,000,000 – $22,000,000			$45,000,000 – $70,000,000			Universal Pictures
6/24/2022	Elvis	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000			$110,000,000 – $170,000,000			Warner Bros. Pictures
7/1/2022	Minions: The Rise of Gru	$65,000,000 – $80,000,000			$244,000,000 – $287,000,000			Universal Pictures