Jump to content

Cap

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
Recommended by Shawn Robbins
  • Thanks
  • Like

14 reactions

Go to this post
Recommended

Posted by XXR vs XXR,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

Recommended by XXR vs XXR

  • Disbelief
  • Haha
  • Thanks
  • Like

17 reactions

Go to this post




M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Hmm, your final projections have 335k Alpha/11400 Sacto by Tuesday, and just 453k/15k final? I think that would require fairly poor Wed-Thu trends (extremely poor, for Alpha). 

I think you may be right - those Alpha numbers don't look right, think there may be a formula error somewhere - would be a worse final week than Strange (barely), and it should be higher. I'll revisit when I get back home to a computer 🙁

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 18 30 18 35
Seats Added 0 2,790 2,465 1,738 4,217
Seats Sold 10,747 8,949 10,115 9,050 7,408
           
7/3/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 440 6,528 277,718 1,121,193 24.77%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 24 162 490 969
           
ATP          
$16.75          

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
  Dr. Strange MoM Spider-Man: No Way Home
Total Net
Thursday Only Net
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0            
T-0            
T-1            
T-2            
T-3            
T-4 $25.2 $25.7 $21.8 $25.0 $27.8 $29.4
T-5 $25.5 $26.0 $21.5 $24.7 $27.5 $29.2
T-6 $25.4 $25.9 $21.3 $24.4 $27.5 $29.2
T-7 $25.3 $25.8 $21.0 $24.0 $27.4 $29.1
T-8 $25.2 $25.8 $20.6 $23.6 $27.2 $28.9

 

@ZackM As I requested earlier, it would be great if you do like for like comps without additional theaters tracked. it would be good to keep additional data for future comps(like for Wakanda forever and future MCU movies) but extrapolation from DS2/NWH should be done only with same data. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

Thor Love and Thunder, counted today at 6am EST for Friday, July 8:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 976 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.020 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 191 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 126 (9 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 206 (17 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.101 (23 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.594 (28 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 5.214.
Comps (not all comps fit very well, on Wednesday I have a better range; all four films counted on Monday for Friday): TSS had 940 sold tickets,

F9 had 1.656 sold tickets (but good jumps over the next days),

Morbius had 1.163 sold tickets

and The Batman had 4.894 sold tickets = x1.065 for Thor = 142.7M+ because I counted a bit earlier today.
SC had on Tuesday of its release week 2.672 sold tickets for Friday. Let's say Thor will have ca. 6k sold tickets tomorrow (a jump of 15%) that would be ca. x2.25 = ca. 170M OW from this comp.

 

Over 5k tickets on a (holiday) Monday is decent.
Tomorrow I count the Thursday presales but overall I will stick with the Friday presales because it normally works quite well. It's also a bit too late to get a proper Thursday number because I noticed today several Sell Outs in my theaters and now Idk how many sold tickets I'm missing (I could guess).

Edited by el sid
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, el sid said:

Thor Love and Thunder, counted today at 6am EST for Friday, July 8:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 976 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.020 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 191 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 126 (9 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 206 (17 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.101 (23 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.594 (28 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 5.214.
Comps (not all comps fit very well, on Wednesday I have a better range; all four films counted on Monday for Friday): TSS had 940 sold tickets,

F9 had 1.656 sold tickets (but good jumps over the next days),

Morbius had 1.163 sold tickets

and The Batman had 4.894 sold tickets = x1.065 for Thor = 142.7M+ because I counted a bit earlier today.
SC had on Tuesday of its release week 2.672 sold tickets for Friday. Let's say Thor will have ca. 6k sold tickets tomorrow (a jump of 15%) that would be ca. x2.25 = ca. 170M OW from this comp.

 

Over 5k tickets on a (holiday) Monday is decent.
Tomorrow I count the Thursday presales but overall I will stick with the Friday presales because it normally works quite well. It's also a bit too late to get a proper Thursday number because I noticed today several Sell Outs in my theaters and now Idk how many sold tickets I'm missing (I could guess).

you dont have comps with DS2 or NWH. None of the other comps matter for this movie. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

you dont have comps with DS2 or NWH. None of the other comps matter for this movie. 

Maybe I should stop counting then.

 

Edit: That was rude of me. But look, I don't mostly eyecount 5k tickets to hear that it's irrelevant.

Indeed I have no comps for Friday, otherwise I would have used them. I have Sunday comps though 🤔.

Edited by el sid
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites


XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, el sid said:

Maybe I should stop counting then.

 

Just ignore him. Some people don't have enough tact to use common sense that if you're not using those comps, it's because you don't have them. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, el sid said:

Maybe I should stop counting then.

 

Edit: That was rude of me. But look, I don't mostly eyecount 5k tickets to hear that it's irrelevant.

Indeed I have no comps for Friday, otherwise I would have used them. I have Sunday comp though 🤔.

May be I was rude. Its just that these MCU mega openers are a different beast. Smaller movies behave differently and increase lot more in final days. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


vale9001 Box Office Gold

vale9001

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Crawdads T-10 Jax 6 18 4 51 1,884 2.71%
    Phx 5 15 2 19 1,833 1.04%
    Ral 7 22 17 113 2,101 5.38%
  Total   18 55 23 183 5,818 3.15%
Crawdads (EA) T-9 Jax 1 1 0 17 86 19.77%
  Total   1 1 0 17 86 19.77%
Nope T-17 Jax 7 51 2 74 8,591 0.86%
    Phx 6 20 6 114 4,344 2.62%
    Ral 8 25 2 91 3,411 2.67%
  Total   21 96 10 279 16,346 1.71%
Paws of Fury T-10 Jax 6 24 7 7 2,292 0.31%
    Phx 5 16 10 10 1,628 0.61%
    Ral 7 20 11 11 1,984 0.55%
  Total   18 60 28 28 5,904 0.47%
Thor 4 T-3 Jax 7 111 226 2,739 17,071 16.04%
    Phx 6 114 131 3,120 18,369 16.99%
    Ral 8 90 214 2,958 11,580 25.54%
  Total   21 315 571 8,817 47,020 18.75%

 

Crawdads T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .72x (2.3m)

 - NTTD - .388x (2.016m)

 - Dune - .283x (1.44m)

 

 

 

I'm new in this topic. Can you explain me what T-10 means?

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Ronin46 Box Office Gold

Ronin46

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

Thank you. And the comparison with Elvis means at the same point Elvis pre sales were 72 times bigger?

 

0.72 means it has sold 72% of what Elvis did at the same time

Edited by Ronin46
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites




vale9001 Box Office Gold

vale9001

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

0.72 means it has sold 72% of what Elvis did at the same time

 

oh right.  2.3 M, the 72% of 3M (elvis previews numbers) 😄

 

So it's doing good.  20-30M opening seems right just with these numbers. 

Edited by vale9001
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Ronin46 Box Office Gold

Ronin46

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

oh right.  2.3 M, the 72% of 3M (elvis previews numbers) 😄

 

So it's doing good.  20-30M opening seems right just with these numbers. 

 

Its a bit early to say that. Its a promising start and leave it at that until next week and a clearer picture emerges.

Link to comment
Share on other sites






Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept