The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

I don’t expect LOVE AND THUNDER to be as frontloaded as DS2 - and I’ve had enough holiday weekend BBQ at this point that my brain might be melted - but is it possible L&T opens under RAGNAROK’s $122.7M OW? Most comps I’m seeing seem to point around 65% of DS2, which would equate to $121.8M by my math.

Nothing is impossible, but I'd be very surprised. DS2's late sales (Tuesday onward) weren't super amazing, Thor will make up some ground (and as these comps are for previews, I'd expect Thor to be slightly less frontloaded throughout the weekend, although summer will blunt that a bit). 

 

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

Do you guys think L&T will sell more tickets OW than Ragnarok did?

 

Now this is a bigger uncertainty. I lean towards yes, but wouldn't take much to go under. Maybe 60/40 on that atm. 

Edited July 3, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[John Marston]

39 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

I don’t expect LOVE AND THUNDER to be as frontloaded as DS2 - and I’ve had enough holiday weekend BBQ at this point that my brain might be melted - but is it possible L&T opens under RAGNAROK’s $122.7M OW? Most comps I’m seeing seem to point around 65% of DS2, which would equate to $121.8M by my math.

 

 

Thor 4 being a July release should be frontloaded  with previews and opening day 

[charlie Jatinder]

Stop worrying y'all. Atleast till Tuesday. If Tuesday isn't good day then we have something to worry.

 

Pace so far has been on expected note. I am still thinking $28-32M previews.

[ZackM]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	18	30	18	35
Seats Added	0	2,790	2,465	1,738	4,217
Seats Sold	10,747	8,949	10,115	9,050	7,408
7/3/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	6,528	277,718	1,121,193	24.77%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	24	162	490	969
ATP
$16.75

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4	$25.2	$25.7	$21.8	$25.0	$27.8	$29.4
T-5	$25.5	$26.0	$21.5	$24.7	$27.5	$29.2
T-6	$25.4	$25.9	$21.3	$24.4	$27.5	$29.2
T-7	$25.3	$25.8	$21.0	$24.0	$27.4	$29.1
T-8	$25.2	$25.8	$20.6	$23.6	$27.2	$28.9

 

[Eric Lasagna]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	7312	34527	21.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 230

 

Comp

0.372x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-5 (18.6M)

1.122x of The Batman T-5 (24.25M)

0.577x of Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (20.78M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	7727	34527	22.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 415

 

Comp

0.379x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-4 (18.96M)

1.115x of The Batman T-4 (24.08M)

0.576x of Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (20.73M)

[Eric Lasagna]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	255	13040	1.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.447x of F9 T-19 (3.18M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	260	13040	1.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.441x of F9 T-18 (3.13M)

[Porthos]

On 7/2/2022 at 11:45 PM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13445	13698	253	1.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

5

 

T-19 Comps

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	39.59		56	639		0/92	13462/14101	4.53%		4407	5.70%		2.94m
TSS	97.68		18	259		0/81	13693/13952	1.86%		2352	10.76%		4.01m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     40/3966  [1.01% sold]
Matinee:      7/862  [0.81% | 2.77% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13438	13695	257	1.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

4

 

T-18 Comps

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	37.41		48	687		0/92	13414/14101	4.87%		4407	5.79%		2.78m
TSS	95.90		9	268		0/81	13684/13952	1.92%		2352	10.93%		3.93m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     40/3963  [1.01% sold]
Matinee:      7/861  [0.81% | 2.72% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 7/2/2022 at 11:46 PM, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	251	24732	33701	8969	26.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	169
Total Seats Sold Today	302

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	207.62		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		9196	97.53%		28.70m
NWH	45.42		515	19748		1/325	19372/39120	50.48%		28183	31.82%		22.71m
MoM	66.39		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	42.47%		23.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        962/4831  [19.91% sold]
Matinee:    460/2566  [17.93% | 5.13% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	251	24142	33701	9559	28.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

590

 

T-4 Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	206.68		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		9196	103.95%		28.57m
NWH	46.58		774	20522		1/325	18598/39120	52.46%		28183	33.92%		23.29m
MoM	66.60		844	14353		0/353	28327/42680	33.63%		21117	45.27%		23.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      1056/4831  [21.86% sold]
Matinee:    513/2566  [19.99% | 5.37% of all tickets sold]

[M37]

On 7/3/2022 at 8:04 AM, M37 said:

Think this it the right perspective: Alpha (and Drafthouse) are tracking towards a high $20s preview figure, but most of the other samples are in mid if not low $20s range, with Denver and Sacramento (surprise!) tracking closely to the (unweighted) average

 

 

It could be that the advance sale heavy markets are just ahead of the curve, others will catch-up ... or that Thor is going to overindex towards metro areas, not cast as wide a GA/demo net as Dr Strange, and winds up towards the lower end of current tracking. Think I'm going to go start that club after all 😉

 

With the major caveat that a pre-holiday weekend could potentially affecting ticket buying patterns, going to go ahead and roll this out anyway. Based on my analysis of the data posted in the tracking threads, here are projected final totals for ticket sales for Thor L&T for some of the tracking samples:

Tracker	Market/Chain	Current	Projected	% Change	Final vs MoM
Eric	Philly	7,727	12,500	61.8%	$21.85
Inceptionzq	Denver	6,682	10,500	57.1%	$24.60
Inceptionzq	Megaplex	7,082	11,800	66.6%	$22.91
Inceptionzq	Drafthouse	16,925	27,000	59.5%	$30.02
Porthos	Sacto	9,559	15,000	56.9%	$25.57
ZackM	ALPHA	277,718	405,000	45.8%	$26.17
ZackM	ALPHA (Final)	277,718	475,000	71.0%	$26.34

 

NOTES: Now normally I would say a +/- 5% MOE on both ends, but in this specific case its probably as likely the projection undershoots by 10% than comes in over

 

Unless Drafthouse adds a whole lot more shows & seats, that projected sales figure won't verify, as it would be over 93% capacity of current allotment; even if the demand was there, limited supply would push people to other locations within those markets (Strange finished at 69% capacity, Thor is already at 60%)

 

Seeing most tracking samples on pace to converge by Thursday using this methodology leads me to believe there's something there. For official forecast purposes, will round up a bit, including a smallish bump in ATP since Dr Strange: Projected Thor L&T Thursday = $26.5M (+/- $1M)

 

Will follow up with a post-analysis on Friday, after all numbers are in. Happy Independence Day!

 

Alpha numbers revised 7/05

Edited July 5, 2022 by M37
Formula error

[John2015]

How many theaters would open "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" on Jul 15?  

The film just started showing TV spots on some channels; looks like it will have bigger TV marketing than "Mr. Malcolm's List".

Edited July 4, 2022 by John2015

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, John2015 said:

How many theaters would open "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" on Jul 15?  

The film just started showing TV spots on some channels; looks like it will have bigger TV marketing than "Mr. Malcolm's List".

Guessing the typical Focus 1,000-1,500 for their smaller releases.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

With the major caveat that a pre-holiday weekend could potentially affecting ticket buying patterns, going to go ahead and roll this out anyway. Based on my analysis of the data posted in the tracking threads, here are projected final totals for ticket sales for Thor L&T for some of the tracking samples:

Tracker	Market/Chain	Current	Projected	% Change	Final vs MoM
Eric	Philly	7,727	12,500	61.8%	$21.85
Inceptionzq	Denver	6,682	10,500	57.1%	$24.60
Inceptionzq	Megaplex	7,082	11,800	66.6%	$22.91
Inceptionzq	Drafthouse	16,925	27,000	59.5%	$30.02
Porthos	Sacto	9,559	15,000	56.9%	$25.57
ZackM	ALPHA	277,718	395,000	42.2%	$25.52
ZackM	ALPHA (Final)	277,718	453,000	63.1%	$25.12

 

NOTES: Now normally I would say a +/- 5% MOE on both ends, but in this specific case its probably as likely the projection undershoots by 10% than comes in over

 

Unless Drafthouse adds a whole lot more shows & seats, that projected sales figure won't verify, as it would be over 93% capacity of current allotment; even if the demand was there, limited supply would push people to other locations within those markets (Strange finished at 69% capacity, Thor is already at 60%)

 

Seeing most tracking samples on pace to converge by Thursday using this methodology leads me to believe there's something there. For official forecast purposes, will round up a bit, including a smallish bump in ATP since Dr Strange: Projected Thor L&T Thursday = $26.5M (+/- $1M)

 

Will follow up with a post-analysis on Friday, after all numbers are in. Happy Independence Day!

I think Sunday was basically a second Saturday for many people, which will have an illusory downward effect on both today and tomorrow (and I also thought this before we got any numbers, so not just because yesterday came in well below DS2 everywhere). Am expecting Sacto and Alpha (which are the only ones I've really plotted out) to come in much higher than what you have there, with comps closer to 30 than 25.

 

Still, the holiday weekend effect is a bit speculative for now (though I do think BW showed evidence of it). If today did behave like a normal Sunday then your numbers make sense.

[M37]

44 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think Sunday was basically a second Saturday for many people, which will have an illusory downward effect on both today and tomorrow (and I also thought this before we got any numbers, so not just because yesterday came in well below DS2 everywhere). Am expecting Sacto and Alpha (which are the only ones I've really plotted out) to come in much higher than what you have there, with comps closer to 30 than 25.

 

Still, the holiday weekend effect is a bit speculative for now (though I do think BW showed evidence of it). If today did behave like a normal Sunday then your numbers make sense.

I don’t disagree, as Sunday was the first day in nearly a week where Thor & Strange really diverged in growth rate by a decent amount 

With that said, Strange only increased by  45-50% from T-4 to T-1hr for most tracking samples (Alpha was +40%), so the projections here have baked in a bit of a post-holiday catch-up. Think the more plausible optimistic scenario is that reviews will be more GA/family friendly, and that will facilitate a stronger late sales push. But we’ll see; again, not the best week to debut this method, but whether it gets close or misses the mark will be an opportunity to refine methodology 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/3/2022 at 9:09 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-11	Jax	6	18	47	47	1,884	2.49%
		Phx	5	15	17	17	1,833	0.93%
		Ral	7	22	96	96	2,101	4.57%
	Total		18	55	160	160	5,818	2.75%
Nope	T-18	Jax	7	51	4	72	8,591	0.84%
		Phx	6	20	12	108	4,344	2.49%
		Ral	8	25	10	89	3,411	2.61%
	Total		21	96	26	269	16,346	1.65%
Thor 4	T-4	Jax	7	112	262	2,513	17,265	14.56%
		Phx	6	114	276	2,989	18,369	16.27%
		Ral	8	89	212	2,744	11,535	23.79%
	Total		21	315	750	8,246	47,169	17.48%

*New sales since Friday morning

 

First look at Crawdads and it's a bit better than I was expecting.  I don't know anything about it, but interest seems to be there.  I only have one EA show in my theaters and it's sold 17 tickets.

 

Crawdads T-11 comps

 - Elvis - missed (~2.1m)

 - NTTD - .352x (1.83m)

 - Dune - .275x (1.4m)

 

Nope T-18 comps

 - NTTD - 1.06x (5.53m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.3x (5.33m)

 - F9 - .678x (4.81m)

 

Thor 4 T-4 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - missed (~20.27m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.71x (30.12m)

 - No Way Home - .36x (18.02m)

 - Black Widow - 2.43x (32.12m)

 - JW3 - missed

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-10	Jax	6	18	4	51	1,884	2.71%
		Phx	5	15	2	19	1,833	1.04%
		Ral	7	22	17	113	2,101	5.38%
	Total		18	55	23	183	5,818	3.15%
Crawdads (EA)	T-9	Jax	1	1	0	17	86	19.77%
	Total		1	1	0	17	86	19.77%
Nope	T-17	Jax	7	51	2	74	8,591	0.86%
		Phx	6	20	6	114	4,344	2.62%
		Ral	8	25	2	91	3,411	2.67%
	Total		21	96	10	279	16,346	1.71%
Paws of Fury	T-10	Jax	6	24	7	7	2,292	0.31%
		Phx	5	16	10	10	1,628	0.61%
		Ral	7	20	11	11	1,984	0.55%
	Total		18	60	28	28	5,904	0.47%
Thor 4	T-3	Jax	7	111	226	2,739	17,071	16.04%
		Phx	6	114	131	3,120	18,369	16.99%
		Ral	8	90	214	2,958	11,580	25.54%
	Total		21	315	571	8,817	47,020	18.75%

 

Crawdads T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .72x (2.3m)

 - NTTD - .388x (2.016m)

 - Dune - .283x (1.44m)

 

Paws of Fury T-10 comps

 - Bad Guys - .757x (870k)

 

Nope T-17 comps

 - NTTD - .986x (5.13m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.28x (5.27m)

 - F9 - .633x (4.49m)

 

*Yesterday's numbers we input wrong.  Original post will be updated.

 

Thor 4 T-3 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .58x (20.86m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.65x (29.11m)

 - No Way Home - .368x (18.41m)

 - Black Widow - 2.46x (32.5m)

 - JW3 - .78x (31.59m)

 

I ran a few numbers to look at possible outcomes based on these comps.  I'm going to set my T-0 morning update sales prediction at 14,200 - essentially holding with Black Widow's last week pace.  This would put the comps average right at 27m.

[charlie Jatinder]

The significant day for Thor is Tuesday. 

[M37]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The significant day for Thor is Tuesday. 

Mostly agree in spirit, but given how we are expecting a post-holiday catch-up and review bump, may be difficult to gauge that day in isolation (unless it really explodes)

 

Personally, I’m looking more at Wednesday (in relation w/ Tuesday) to really pin down final projections 

 

EDIT: By Tuesday (T-2)

 

To keep pace with Strange:

Alpha = ~322K

Sacto = 10,900

 

Estimated based on final projections posted above:

Alpha = ~335K

Sacto = 11,400

 

We'll see if Thor can meet/exceed those checkpoints

Edited July 4, 2022 by M37

[Legion Again]

Personally I am looking at Thursday night update to really pin down the trajectory for good 

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

Mostly agree in spirit, but given how we are expecting a post-holiday catch-up and review bump, may be difficult to gauge that day in isolation (unless it really explodes)

 

Personally, I’m looking more at Wednesday (in relation w/ Tuesday) to really pin down final projections 

 

EDIT: By Tuesday (T-2)

 

To keep pace with Strange:

Alpha = ~322K

Sacto = 10,900

 

Estimated based on final projections posted above:

Alpha = ~335K

Sacto = 11,400

 

We'll see if Thor can meet/exceed those checkpoints

Hmm, your final projections have 335k Alpha/11400 Sacto by Tuesday, and just 453k/15k final? I think that would require fairly poor Wed-Thu trends (extremely poor, for Alpha). 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/3/2022 at 10:30 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-4	Thor 4	PLF	57	250	4,297	11,672	36.81%	$15.79	$67,857.51
		Standard	87	324	2,877	11,439	25.15%	$11.74	$33,763.50
	Thor 4 Total		144	574	7,174	23,111	31.04%	$14.17	$101,621.01

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-4	Thor 4	N	103	379	5,645	16,531	34.15%	$14.86	$83,893.30
		Y	41	195	1,529	6,580	23.24%	$11.59	$17,727.71
	Thor 4 Total		144	574	7,174	23,111	31.04%	$14.17	$101,621.01

*New sales since Friday morning

 

Thor T-4 comps

 - No Way Home - .43x (21.49m)

 - DS2 - .65x (23.365m)

 - Batman + EA - missed

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Thor 4	PLF	57	181	4,478	11,672	38.37%	$15.77	$70,610.41
		Standard	87	215	3,092	11,439	27.03%	$11.70	$36,190.72
	Thor 4 Total		144	396	7,570	23,111	32.75%	$14.11	$106,801.13

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Thor 4	N	103	277	5,922	16,531	35.82%	$14.82	$87,776.06
		Y	41	119	1,648	6,580	25.05%	$11.54	$19,025.07
	Thor 4 Total		144	396	7,570	23,111	32.75%	$14.11	$106,801.13

 

Thor T-3 comps

 - No Way Home - .442x (22.1m)

 - DS2 - .6x (21.61m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.5x (32.32m)

 - JW3 - 1.476x (26.56m)

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/29/2022 at 5:42 PM, Menor Reborn said:

Thor T-9 Marcus

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 904 (+2)

Seats Sold: 24503/135497(+964)

 

Friday has too many errors, and don't have time to manually check things, so skipping it for today. Not a bad day at all here yesterday, though since other markets were more mixed, thinking it might've been just a blip;. 

Thor T-4 Marcus

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 916 (+12)

Seats Sold: 30507/136711 (+6004 in 5 days)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1391 (-4)

Seats Sold: 20700/209035 (+5940 in 6 days)

 

Not a super great pace, but as I have said, I have been expecting the holiday weekend to depress things. 

 

*for Friday, the website has gone a bit wacky and a few shows aren't reachable even manually.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Menor Reborn