The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [3:50pm* - 4:20pm]

* NOTE: All showtimes that started before 4pm were sampled at the start of that showtime.

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [3:50-4:30]	217.24		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3034	217.24%		9.78m
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	166.82		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	166.82%		10.43m
FB3 [3:50-4:25]	147.91		823	4456		0/207	23332/27788	16.04%		4456	147.91%		8.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  

 

Obviously not gonna claim credit, but damn if Sonic 2 wasn't telling me something.  I just presumed that there were more kids tickets being sold.

 

I will say though that I saw a ton of tickets being sold in the 7pm windows that gave me some pause but I suppose I just wilted to peer-pressure on Minions 2.

 

Nostalgia from kids who saw it and are now teens/twentysomethings?  Your guess is as good as mine.

 

Still, this result is a shocker, no two ways about it.  Who says this thread can't be surprised anymore? 

 

Just glad it's a positive surprise and not a negative one. 👍

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Just don't look at what you said about TGM in that convo. 

 

(yes, I did remember it, but decided not to say anything — until now )

Sssshhhh

[M37]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The point is to see opening numbers far out with sales data. 

It's fine. Would have failed with something someday.

Fair enough, call it a miss 

 

But every “miss” is itself a new data point - now we have a new upper limit for sales growth in the last week, replacing Venom (which itself was a weird outlier)

 

And if there’s going to be a miss, rather it be because a film overshot any reasonable expectation based on early sales data than went the NTTD/Elvis route and limped to finish line 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, M37 said:

Fair enough, call it a miss 

 

But every “miss” is itself a new data point - now we have a new upper limit for sales growth in the last week, replacing Venom (which itself was a weird outlier)

Yeah part of miss was we didn't had a big family flick exploding like that recently. Jurassic World was expected to be so but it had muted bumps in final 3 days. Walkins during weekend were good though.

 

Lightyear was worse in all ways.

 

By Tuesday it was clear Minions is not doing those two did but was too late by then to call it a win.

[Tinalera]

EDIT: Okay was able to get some stuff sorted-I don't have a comparable for JW3  on the Friday at my theatre so all I have is Lightyear, which is better than nothing

 

Minions Rise of Gru (Friday only last count)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

# theatre

#show

Seats Sold

Seats Rem

Ttl seat

Percent

Fri

19

195

7223

41581

48804

0.148

 

 

X4.998 Lightyear (3.74 million) Canadian

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions (Fri)	PLF	48	1,726	3,117	9,682	32.19%	$13.64	$42,508.98
		Standard	120	3,218	5,916	16,527	35.80%	$10.06	$59,531.30
	Minions (Fri) Total		168	4,944	9,033	26,209	34.47%	$11.30	$102,040.28
T-6	Thor 4	PLF	57	111	4,047	11,672	34.67%	$15.85	$64,144.09
		Standard	87	142	2,553	11,439	22.32%	$11.80	$30,134.82
	Thor 4 Total		144	253	6,600	23,111	28.56%	$14.28	$94,278.91

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions (Fri)	N	71	2,163	4,267	11,667	36.57%	$13.01	$55,534.24
		Y	97	2,781	4,766	14,542	32.77%	$9.76	$46,506.04
	Minions (Fri) Total		168	4,944	9,033	26,209	34.47%	$11.30	$102,040.28
T-6	Thor 4	N	103	180	5,266	16,531	31.86%	$14.95	$78,721.33
		Y	41	73	1,334	6,580	20.27%	$11.66	$15,557.58
	Thor 4 Total		144	253	6,600	23,111	28.56%	$14.28	$94,278.91

 

So Thursday ended up pretty close to the Lightyear comp (10.95m) than anything else.  The sales came fast and furious the last day, and we're seeing the same thing already for today.  In my projection post above, the comps pointed to a ~6200 final for Friday.  It almost hit 5k in new sales alone.

 

Minions Fri T-0 comps

 - FB3 - 2.718x (38.12m)

 - NWH - .416x (29.92m)

 - Batman - .917x (32.18m)

 - DS2 - .566x (30.99m)

 - TG2 - 1.07x (34.98m)

 - JW3 - .605x (25.18m)

 

These are unadjusted numbers.  Every single comp that I adjust based on Thursday's multiplier comes out over 40m!  I think >30m true Friday is a given now.  I'll put my prediction at 34m

 

Thor T-6 comps

 - No Way Home - missed

 - DS2 - missed

 - Batman + EA - missed

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions (Sat)	PLF	47	991	991	9,559	10.37%	$12.86	$12,748.88
		Standard	119	1,825	1,825	16,469	11.08%	$9.83	$17,939.50
	Minions (Sat) Total		166	2,816	2,816	26,028	10.82%	$10.90	$30,688.38

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions (Sat)	N	70	785	785	11,522	6.81%	$13.34	$10,474.72
		Y	96	2,031	2,031	14,506	14.00%	$9.95	$20,213.66
	Minions (Sat) Total		166	2,816	2,816	26,028	10.82%	$10.90	$30,688.38

 

Batman is the only other movie that I looked at Saturday presales on Friday.  That comps to 14.9m if it follows Batman trends.  It won't.  We can look at a couple possible scenarios though:

 

Minions Sat T-1 comps - assuming same rate of growth in final day as Friday presales

 - NWH - 21.68m

 - Batman - 23.52m

 - DS2 - 20.12m

 - TG2 - 26.42m

 - JW3 - 18.83m

 

Should we be expecting the same growth rate though?  I checked Batman since it's my only sample size.  From T-1 to T-0, Thursday sales grew 24%, Friday grew 27.3% and Saturday grew 40.3%.  Minions 2 on the other hand: Thursday 76%, Friday 120.9% and Saturday... 180%?  Let's see where that would put us.

 

Hypothetical Sat T-0 comps

 - NWH - 27.47m

 - Batman - 29.8m

 - DS2 - 25.49m

 - TG2 - 33.67m

 

I'll put my target at 7800 sales for tomorrow's run.

[Inceptionzq]

My monitor is giving me problems so probably no numbers from me today 

[SpiderByte]

How's Thor been doing?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

When was last time there was a weekend with two consecutive 100m openers? Assuming Minions hits the 3day 100m

 

2019 was close with FFH's 3day being 90m and in between the 100m of Toy Story 4 and Lion King

[Eric the IF]

34 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

When was last time there was a weekend with two consecutive 100m openers? Assuming Minions hits the 3day 100m

 

2019 was close with FFH's 3day being 90m and in between the 100m of Toy Story 4 and Lion King

2018 with Incredibles/Fallen Kingdom IIRC

[XXR vs XXR]

34 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

When was last time there was a weekend with two consecutive 100m openers? Assuming Minions hits the 3day 100m

 

2019 was close with FFH's 3day being 90m and in between the 100m of Toy Story 4 and Lion King

 

2018, Incredibles 2 followed by JWFK. 

[keysersoze123]

Just to reiterate how crazy Minions performance was, last animation blockbuster I tracked was Frozen 2. That one did

Frozen 2

MTC1 previews - 122237/435797 1736271.79 2519 shows (8.8m previews)

MTC1 friday - 405857/1117861 5387654.72 6116 shows (33m true friday)

 

I dont think I tracked as many theaters as I am doing for Minions, still Minions will comfortably be ahead. I am thinking 525K+ true friday at this point. So 35m+ true friday should happen with those numbers. 

 

[Tinalera]

Thor 4

SW/Toronto Ontario t-7 (no comps)

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	301	8418	36935	45353	0.1856
Fri	20	280	5032	35114	40146	0.1253

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-7 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
512	119,100	13,267	11.14%	$165,838	$12.50

 

+585. Good bump. Need more such good bumps. Since targets work well for it. Expecting 16.6K by Sunday. Will be great if its more. Also Gross is estimate today.

 

Comps

0.579x of DSitMoM admits - $21M

3.210x of Black Widow admits - $44.1M

4.119x of Eternals admits - $39.1M

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-6 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
512	121,237	14,051	11.59%	$175,638	$12.50

 

+784. Good day in right direction. Need to continue this.

 

Comps

0.582x of DSitMoM admits - $21.2M

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13461	13704	243	1.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Sunday

47

 

T-21 Comps

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	44.26		78	549		0/92	13434/13983	3.93%		4407	5.47%		3.29m
TSS	114.62		34	212		0/81	13740/13952	1.52%		2352	10.33%		4.70m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the

 

 

Regal:     39/3969  [0.98% sold]
Matinee:      7/863  [0.81% | 2.88% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Switching back to daily reports, starting tonight.  Also roping in a couple of comps, as bad as they are.  Don't exactly have many good ones.  Only other one I have on my home sheet is AQP II (adj) which is currently comping at 4.28m, but I'm shying away from that for right now for a variety of reasons.  Might bring it in later though. 

 

If anyone has any suggestions for comps, be open to hear them, though my options at T-21 aren't exactly great.  NTTD starts at T-20, so that could be a possibility.  And I suppose I could hold my nose and bring in Sonic 2, only because horror films are notoriously backloaded and just make a mental note that the comp will probably be higher for far more adult tickets sold.  But aside from that, my options ain't exactly grand right now.

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13443	13691	248	1.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

5

 

T-20 Comps

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	42.54		34	583		0/92	13400/13983	4.17%		4407	5.58%		3.16m
TSS	102.90		29	241		0/81	13711/13952	1.73%		2352	10.54%		4.22m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     40/3962  [1.01% sold]
Matinee:      7/862  [0.81% | 2.82% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	24544	32818	8274	25.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	204
Total Seats Sold Today	340

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	216.94		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		9196	89.97%		29.99m
NWH	44.31		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		28183	29.36%		22.15m
MoM	65.89		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	39.18%		23.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         855/4831  [17.70% sold]
Matinee:    406/2566  [15.82% | 4.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

No longer have to adjust for Black Widow anymore, as by this point in the track I had fully reliable seat maps.  Also decided to jettison The Batman comp as it really isn't worthwhile anymore, if it ever was.  DC and Marvel just play too differently here (at least the 'darker' DC titles) for it to still be of any use.  So just sticking with these three Marvel films and we'll see where it lands in the end.

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	249	24865	33532	8667	25.85%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	714
Total Seats Sold Today	393

 

T-6 Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	212.95		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		9196	94.25%		29.43m
NWH	45.06		559	19233		1/325	19887/39120	49.16%		28183	30.75%		22.53m
MoM	66.35		506	13063		0/353	29617/42680	30.61%		21117	41.04%		23.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        905/4831  [18.73% sold]
Matinee:    431/2566  [16.80% | 4.97% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@Legion and Thunder The Batman sold 220 tickets at T-6, meaning the comp would have gone up (from 33.08m to 34.66m).  Make of that what you will (besides my stance that DC and Marvel just play differently locally).

[charlie Jatinder]

For reference, Minions 2 Harkins Friday - 75391/161902 (696 showings) ~$800K

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	249	24865	33532	8667	25.85%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	714
Total Seats Sold Today	393

 

T-6 Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	212.95		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		9196	94.25%		29.43m
NWH	45.06		559	19233		1/325	19887/39120	49.16%		28183	30.75%		22.53m
MoM	66.35		506	13063		0/353	29617/42680	30.61%		21117	41.04%		23.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        905/4831  [18.73% sold]
Matinee:    431/2566  [16.80% | 4.97% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@Legion and Thunder The Batman sold 220 tickets at T-6, meaning the comp would have gone up (from 33.08m to 34.66m).  Make of that what you will (besides my stance that DC and Marvel just play differently locally).

Along with DC/Marvel, Batman also appears to have had a significant review bump in those last few days, as it really outpaced where trends indicated it was heading - not likely to repeat with Thor 

 

Was hoping for 20-25% growth for Thor over the pre-opening weekend, and after 1 day, it’s well on its way to that mark 

[katnisscinnaplex]

16 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions (Sat)	PLF	47	991	991	9,559	10.37%	$12.86	$12,748.88
		Standard	119	1,825	1,825	16,469	11.08%	$9.83	$17,939.50
	Minions (Sat) Total		166	2,816	2,816	26,028	10.82%	$10.90	$30,688.38

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions (Sat)	N	70	785	785	11,522	6.81%	$13.34	$10,474.72
		Y	96	2,031	2,031	14,506	14.00%	$9.95	$20,213.66
	Minions (Sat) Total		166	2,816	2,816	26,028	10.82%	$10.90	$30,688.38

 

Batman is the only other movie that I looked at Saturday presales on Friday.  That comps to 14.9m if it follows Batman trends.  It won't.  We can look at a couple possible scenarios though:

 

Minions Sat T-1 comps - assuming same rate of growth in final day as Friday presales

 - NWH - 21.68m

 - Batman - 23.52m

 - DS2 - 20.12m

 - TG2 - 26.42m

 - JW3 - 18.83m

 

Should we be expecting the same growth rate though?  I checked Batman since it's my only sample size.  From T-1 to T-0, Thursday sales grew 24%, Friday grew 27.3% and Saturday grew 40.3%.  Minions 2 on the other hand: Thursday 76%, Friday 120.9% and Saturday... 180%?  Let's see where that would put us.

 

Hypothetical Sat T-0 comps

 - NWH - 27.47m

 - Batman - 29.8m

 - DS2 - 25.49m

 - TG2 - 33.67m

 

I'll put my target at 7800 sales for tomorrow's run.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions (Sat)	PLF	47	1,258	2,249	9,559	23.53%	$13.03	$29,312.63
		Standard	120	2,260	4,085	16,537	24.70%	$9.67	$39,492.43
	Total		167	3,518	6,334	26,096	24.27%	$10.86	$68,805.06

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions (Sat)	N	71	1,151	1,936	11,590	16.70%	$13.27	$25,685.01
		Y	96	2,367	4,398	14,506	30.32%	$9.80	$43,120.05
	Total		167	3,518	6,334	26,096	24.27%	$10.86	$68,805.06

 

Before I get into comps, I wanted to look back at this..

 

Quote

These are unadjusted numbers.  Every single comp that I adjust based on Thursday's multiplier comes out over 40m!  I think >30m true Friday is a given now.  I'll put my prediction at 34m

 

I think the last estimate I saw was ~38m for true Friday.  That would match the Santikos FB3 comp unadjusted.  Most other movies comped to 32-34 unadjusted and 40-42 using Thursday adjustment.  This may not be wise, but I want to factor in a little higher multiplier for Canada Day (we'll know more once we see some Canada numbers).  

 

When it comes to final Sat presales, it didn't come close to my prediction from yesterday.  This run was about 4 hours earlier, but that would only be a difference of 4am and 8am local for Santikos and I don't think many tickets are sold in that period.  Only having one comp (and Batman at that) didn't help either.  I wish I had run FB3 for Sat and Sun to see if that comp held up, but alas.

 

Minions Sat T-0 straight comps

 - NWH - .299x (22.08m)

 - Batman - .554x (23.95m)

 - DS2 - .354x (20.49m)

 - TG2 - .707x (26.9m)

 - JW3 - .409x (19.18m)

 

Friday adjusted comps

 - NWH - 28.05m

 - Batman - 28.34m

 - DS2 - 25.12m

 - TG2 - 29.2m

 - JW3 - 28.9m

 

These aren't really inspiring, but I've learned not to count out the Minions walkups.  I guess I'll put my Sat prediction at.... 29m and plan to be pleasantly surprised.

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins Saturday ~16.7K for Minions 2 vs 23K FRI. FRI finaled at 75K+, SAT could be 65K range. That's looks like a big drop. 

 

Santikos seems like same thing.

 

But let's see how day pan out as this is first time I am checking days other than previews.