The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[bakedpotato]

Interesting. What are we looking at for Crawdads OD (Previews/TFri)?

[Krissykins]

Hopefully Crawdads can open in the high teens and Nope high 30’s (at least). 

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-4	Jax	6	18	9	99	1,884	5.25%
		Phx	5	15	2	40	1,833	2.18%
		Ral	7	22	16	204	2,101	9.71%
	Total		18	55	27	343	5,818	5.90%
Crawdads (EA)	T-3	Jax	1	1	5	36	86	41.86%
	Total		1	1	5	36	86	41.86%
Easter Sunday	T-25	Jax	6	15	0	3	2,232	0.13%
		Phx	3	9	0	1	1,134	0.09%
		Ral	7	16	4	4	1,976	0.20%
	Total		16	40	4	8	5,342	0.15%
Nope	T-11	Jax	7	50	5	99	8,422	1.18%
		Phx	6	20	3	166	4,344	3.82%
		Ral	8	24	8	133	3,332	3.99%
	Total		21	94	16	398	16,098	2.47%
Paws of Fury	T-4	Jax	6	24	1	10	2,292	0.44%
		Phx	5	16	1	16	1,628	0.98%
		Ral	7	20	7	23	1,984	1.16%
	Total		18	60	9	49	5,904	0.83%

 

Crawdads T-4 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - NTTD - .345 (1.8m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Halloween Kills - .478x (2.32m)

 - Ghostbusters - .427x (1.77m)

 

I added some more comps since I missed most of the T-4 updates.

 

Paws of Fury T-4 comps

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Peter Rabbit - .72x (649k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .188x (849k)

 - Encanto - .302x (454k)

 

Nope T-11 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .913x (3.79m)

 - NTTD - .875x (4.55m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.35x (5.55m)

 - F9 - .534x (3.79m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.95m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-3	Jax	6	18	31	130	1,884	6.90%
		Phx	5	15	11	51	1,833	2.78%
		Ral	7	22	51	255	2,101	12.14%
	Total		18	55	93	436	5,818	7.49%
Crawdads (EA)	T-2	Jax	1	1	12	48	86	55.81%
	Total		1	1	12	48	86	55.81%
Easter Sunday	T-24	Jax	6	15	2	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	3	9	0	1	1,134	0.09%
		Ral	7	16	0	4	1,976	0.20%
	Total		16	40	2	10	5,342	0.19%
Mrs. Harris	T-3	Jax	2	4	6	6	200	3.00%
		Phx	2	4	5	5	190	2.63%
		Ral	3	5	12	12	454	2.64%
	Total		7	13	23	23	844	2.73%
Nope	T-10	Jax	7	50	5	104	8,422	1.23%
		Phx	6	20	8	174	4,344	4.01%
		Ral	8	25	13	146	3,411	4.28%
	Total		21	95	26	424	16,177	2.62%
Paws of Fury	T-3	Jax	6	24	2	12	2,292	0.52%
		Phx	5	16	2	18	1,628	1.11%
		Ral	7	20	1	24	1,984	1.21%
	Total		18	60	5	54	5,904	0.91%

 

Added Mrs. Harris for opening week.  Only 13 shows in my regions but most have a ticket or two sold.

 

Crawdads T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Dune - .37x (1.886m)

 - Uncharted - .645x (2.39m)

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Halloween Kills - .508x (2.46m)

 - Ghostbusters - .477x (1.98m)

 

Really liking the pace on Crawdads.  I don't love that Raleigh is over 50% share of the sales, but it tracks for movies like this.  Respect (54.7%), In the Heights (53.97%) and Downton (47.91%) were all heavily concentrated in Raleigh compared to the other regions.  They also all came in much lower than my comps suggested.  I'll keep that in mind when making my projections later this week.

 

Paws of Fury T-3 comps

 - Bad Guys - .563x (647k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .62x (559k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .128x (580k)

 - Encanto - .283x (424k)

 

Thinking with it being summer maybe we'll see a very late rush on Wed/Thu.  Maybe comps will get to 750k in the end?

 

Mrs. Harris T-3 comps

 - Stillwater - .885x (248k)

 - Respect - .359x (233k)

 - House of Gucci - .105x (136k)

 

Nope T-10 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .896x (3.72m)

 - NTTD - .898x (4.67m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.4x (5.76m)

 - F9 - .525x (3.73m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.94m)

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Hopefully Crawdads can open in the high teens and Nope high 30’s (at least). 

Crawdads' sales are making it appear as if the opening day could be high enough that $20M+ might be in the cards unless it proves to be especially frontloaded (sort of doubt it given how old its audience is looking to be for the most part), making that three movies over $20M+ for the weekend (Paws of Fury feels like another Ron's Gone Wrong that will have no notable impact on Minions). Would be more solid news for the return of box office stability, especially with the release schedule looking to be in a lull for at least a month after the weekend Bullet Train comes out.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Nope	PLF	14	116	116	3,670	3.16%	$15.43	$1,789.47
		Standard	15	45	45	1,782	2.53%	$10.44	$470.02
	Nope Total		29	161	161	5,452	2.95%	$14.03	$2,259.49

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Nope	N	20	129	129	3,846	3.35%	$14.95	$1,929.02
		Y	9	32	32	1,606	1.99%	$10.33	$330.47
	Total		29	161	161	5,452	2.95%	$14.03	$2,259.49
T-3	Crawdads	N	20	129	129	2,060	6.26%	$12.39	$1,597.73
		Y	10	47	47	1,036	4.54%	$8.56	$402.16
	Total		30	176	176	3,096	5.68%	$11.36	$1,999.89
T-3	Mrs. Harris	N	4	12	12	276	4.35%	$12.99	$155.88
	Total		4	12	12	276	4.35%	$12.99	$155.88
T-3	Paws of Fury	N	18	6	6	1,798	0.33%	$12.27	$73.62
		Y	9	8	8	899	0.89%	$8.80	$70.36
	Total		27	14	14	2,697	0.52%	$10.28	$143.98

 

Getting right back on schedule with three new releases this week and starting to track Nope.  These combine for 90 shows while Thor was averaging like 240 per day over the weekend.  

 

Crawdads T-3 comp

 - Northman - 1.676x (2.26m)

 

Paws of Fury T-3 comp

 - The Bad Guys - .378x (435k)

 

Nope T-10 comps

 - TG2 - .093x (1.37m)

 - FB3 - .352x (2.11m)

 

Bad Guys is probably the only actual comp I have; just putting what I can find for the others.

[Tinalera]

Nope (T-11)(t-0 fri)

SW/Toronto Ontario No Comps

 

NOPE	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	5	15	169	4922	5091	0.0343
Fri	5	21	84	6563	6647	0.0127

Edited July 11, 2022 by Tinalera

[vale9001]

20M+ for Crawdads will be a great news for a lot of reasons. This is the kind of product producers nowdays prefers to sell to streaming services, like it's gonna happen with others two of recent more than a year bestsellers like The seven husband of Evelyn Hugo and  It all end with us.

The last title in particular is really really big with teenagers, i mean even bigger than Twilight and Hunger Games before the release of their movie versions. This could have been easily a 50 shades of grey kind of opener (70-100M) 

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

20M+ for Crawdads will be a great news for a lot of reasons. This is the kind of product producers nowdays prefers to sell to streaming services, like it's gonna happen with others two of recent more than a year bestsellers like The seven husband of Evelyn Hugo and  It all end with us.

The last title in particular is really really big with teenagers, i mean even bigger than Twilight and Hunger Games before the release of their movie versions. This could have been easily a 50 shades of grey kind of opener (70-100M) 

It seems like the book really took off once Reese Witherspoon endorsed it shortly after it came out, hence why it's been so popular ever since and why she's a producer on the movie (and has been actively involved in the promo for it even though she's not in it). Imagine she had a lot of say in how the movie would be released. Also likely why Sony chose a prime summer release date vs. a more awards-friendly fall one.

Edited July 11, 2022 by filmlover

[vale9001]

54 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It seems like the book really took off once Reese Witherspoon endorsed it shortly after it came out, hence why it's been so popular ever since and why she's a producer on the movie (and has been actively involved in the promo for it even though she's not in it). Imagine she had a lot of say in how the movie would be released. Also likely why Sony chose a prime summer release date vs. a more awards-friendly fall one.

 

It's definitely non an awards-friendly movie 😄.

From now to on summer is really empty of projects for the core audience of this movie so the release date is okay. Also thillers are a good genre for summer, in particular this has a very "acquatic" scenario so it's the right season. 

[John2015]

I suspect the film's reviews will be mostly negative.  Don't know if it will hut the box office, though.

 

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by John2015

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The reviews will be bad but I think it can reach low 20s opening

[ringedmortality]

I'd say the barometer for this would be like The Notebook. If critical reception is lower than that then it's a problem, but if it's akin or higher it's probably in pretty good shape.

[filmlover]

I have a feeling reviews will be similar to The Girl on the Train (44% RT/48 MC). Approaching that movie's $24M opening would be considered pretty solid for this though, due to the noted lack of obvious star power among the cast.

[filmlover]

Deadline has the updated official wide release schedule for the rest of 2022.

 

Box Office: August & Fall To Go Dry After Summer Of $100M+ Openings – Deadline

 

Bodies Bodies Bodies will now open limited that weekend followed by a wide expansion a week later. Also Three Thousand Years of Longing is missing even though it's still set for August 31...is it now being dumped?

[Grebacio]

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252230830-2022-market-prediction-Maverick-gives-theatrical-business-a-giant-lift

Lmao The Numbers predicts 300M for Black Panther Wakanda Forever

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252230830-2022-market-prediction-Maverick-gives-theatrical-business-a-giant-lift

Lmao The Numbers predicts 300M for Black Panther Wakanda Forever

Personally I am thinking 170/425 or so.

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Personally I am thinking 170/425 or so.

 

215/540

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

215/540

Yeah, I remember how it went with Love & Thunder and JW3. I will stick with my number for now. Marketing and reviews will dictate if I change it or not.

[Menor the Destroyer]

260/710

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Yeah, I remember how it went with Love & Thunder and JW3. I will stick with my number for now. Marketing and reviews will dictate if I change it or not.

Well if BP also gets poor reception then the predictions fo a weak OW will indeed go 3 for 3.