The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Loves Rey]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There are no comps other than 30 & 3? I think T-13 is early enough to have data of multiple movies. Like may be Halloween or Scream.

The issue is that Philly overindexes Black-led movies. Using horror titles like Scream and Halloween likely just leads to inflated comps yet again.

[M37]

Props to @Inceptionzq and @katnisscinnaplex for pretty much nailing True Friday 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

The issue is that Philly overindexes Black-led movies. Using horror titles like Scream and Halloween likely just leads to inflated comps yet again.

I thought Philly overindexed for horror as well.

[MrPink]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There are no comps other than 30 & 3? I think T-13 is early enough to have data of multiple movies. Like may be Halloween or Scream.

would Candyman work as a comp?

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, Tinalera said:

This won't affect US really (except for US/Canada combined BO) but we've a bit of an oopsie up here and about 10 million canadians have lost phone service, internet service, and canadians in general can't access ATMs, Interac (debit), or any thing that connects to Rogers internet as its right now just GONE. ANNND they are now saying it may not be fixed till Monday, so we may see a drop of sales from Canada weekend. Now Canada is a drop in the bucket but if by Monday Thor4 numbers seem soft coming from Canada, well that's why.

Cant they just drive to the plex and get the tickets at the box office? Especially in the absence of tv/internet/cell service, people would rather go to the plex for entertainment. 

[cedec0]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cant they just drive to the plex and get the tickets at the box office? Especially in the absence of tv/internet/cell service, people would rather go to the plex for entertainment. 

I imagine many are desperately waiting at home to check their emails.   No phone or internet also makes coordinating outings harder.

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, MrPink said:

would Candyman work as a comp?

Yeah I think that did look like a peele movie.

 

On checking, seems like Eric only started Candyman 3 days out. It was 203 T-3 days and finaled at 814.

 

Nope is already 333 and should be around 1K by T-3 days I guess.

Edited July 9, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 7/7/2022 at 11:19 PM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13344	13695	351	2.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	36.22		71	969		0/91	13181/14150	6.85%		4407	7.87%		2.69m
TSS	108.33		7	324		0/81	13628/13952	2.32%		2352	14.92%		4.44m
LTBC	39.98		85	878		0/153	24915/25793	3.40%		7712	4.55%		4.64m
NTTD	48.55		49	723		0/135	20536/21259	3.40%		3737	9.39%		3.01m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     70/3963  [1.77% sold]
Matinee:    16/861  [1.86% | 4.56% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13327	13691	364	2.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

13

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	107.69		14	338		0/81	13614/13952	2.42%		2352	15.48%		4.42m
LTBC	37.53		92	970		0/155	24891/25861	3.75%		7712	4.72%		4.35m
NTTD	46.67		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		3737	9.74%		2.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	36.62		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		4407	8.17%		2.72m
Nope (adj)	—		13	360		0/72	11120/11480	3.14%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     71/3959  [1.79% sold]
Matinee:    17/859  [1.98% | 4.67% of all tickets sold]

[Borf the Borf]

Whats best case Saturday is a hold from Friday in 39-40m range? 

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Whats best case Saturday is a hold from Friday in 39-40m range? 

Friday looks to be about $41M. In theory, the best case would be a small (~5%) increase. But in reality, with weak WOM/a B+ CS, and a small % of families reported for Thursday, the actual best case might be holding even, staying above $40M

[Borf the Borf]

38 minutes ago, M37 said:

Friday looks to be about $41M. In theory, the best case would be a small (~5%) increase. But in reality, with weak WOM/a B+ CS, and a small % of families reported for Thursday, the actual best case might be holding even, staying above $40M

Ah one of the few times I wish i had tracking all the days thorugh the OW, intresting case kind of as I thought DrS2MoM was the low bar or high bar for frontloaded but this may take it to another level.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-6	Jax	6	18	6	74	1,884	3.93%
		Phx	5	15	4	31	1,833	1.69%
		Ral	7	22	24	161	2,101	7.66%
	Total		18	55	34	266	5,818	4.57%
Crawdads (EA)	T-5	Jax	1	1	2	24	86	27.91%
	Total		1	1	2	24	86	27.91%
Nope	T-13	Jax	7	50	5	89	8,422	1.06%
		Phx	6	20	18	144	4,344	3.31%
		Ral	8	25	4	117	3,411	3.43%
	Total		21	95	27	350	16,177	2.16%
Paws of Fury	T-6	Jax	6	24	0	9	2,292	0.39%
		Phx	5	16	4	15	1,628	0.92%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
	Total		18	60	4	40	5,904	0.68%

 

Ahh finished today's run in 11 minutes!

 

Crawdads T-6 comps

 - Elvis - .733x (2.34m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Uncharted - .5x (1.85m)

 - Black Phone - 1.97x (5.12m)

 

Paws of Fury T-6 comps

 - Bad Guys - .645x (742k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .93x (837k)

 - Encanto - .488x (732k)

 

Nope T-13 comps

 - NTTD - .854x (4.44m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.31x (5.37m)

 - F9 - .547x (3.88m)

 - Morbius - .7x (3.97m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-5	Jax	6	18	16	90	1,884	4.78%
		Phx	5	15	7	38	1,833	2.07%
		Ral	7	22	27	188	2,101	8.95%
	Total		18	55	50	316	5,818	5.43%
Crawdads (EA)	T-4	Jax	1	1	7	31	86	36.05%
	Total		1	1	7	31	86	36.05%
Easter Sunday	T-26	Jax	6	15	3	3	2,232	0.13%
		Phx	3	9	1	1	1,134	0.09%
		Ral	7	16	0	0	1,976	0.00%
	Total		16	40	4	4	5,342	0.07%
Nope	T-12	Jax	7	50	5	94	8,422	1.12%
		Phx	6	20	19	163	4,344	3.75%
		Ral	8	24	10	125	3,332	3.75%
	Total		21	94	34	382	16,098	2.37%
Paws of Fury	T-5	Jax	6	24	0	9	2,292	0.39%
		Phx	5	16	0	15	1,628	0.92%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
	Total		18	60	0	40	5,904	0.68%

 

Took advantage of a slow day to set up Easter Sunday tracking. I'd like to say I won't look at it again for a while, but with how much time the app is saving me, why not.  

 

Crawdads T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .758x (2.42m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Black Phone - 2.01x (5.23m)

 

Paws of Fury T-5 comps

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Peter Rabbit - .93x (837k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .19x (858k)

 - Encanto - .367x (550k)

 

Nope T-12 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .92x (3.82m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.36x (5.59m)

 - F9 - .543x (3.86m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.94m)

 

Looks like it'll be T-7 for Halloween Kills and T-6 for Candyman comps to start.   

[LegendaryBen]

9 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-5	Jax	6	18	16	90	1,884	4.78%
		Phx	5	15	7	38	1,833	2.07%
		Ral	7	22	27	188	2,101	8.95%
	Total		18	55	50	316	5,818	5.43%
Crawdads (EA)	T-4	Jax	1	1	7	31	86	36.05%
	Total		1	1	7	31	86	36.05%
Easter Sunday	T-26	Jax	6	15	3	3	2,232	0.13%
		Phx	3	9	1	1	1,134	0.09%
		Ral	7	16	0	0	1,976	0.00%
	Total		16	40	4	4	5,342	0.07%
Nope	T-12	Jax	7	50	5	94	8,422	1.12%
		Phx	6	20	19	163	4,344	3.75%
		Ral	8	24	10	125	3,332	3.75%
	Total		21	94	34	382	16,098	2.37%
Paws of Fury	T-5	Jax	6	24	0	9	2,292	0.39%
		Phx	5	16	0	15	1,628	0.92%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
	Total		18	60	0	40	5,904	0.68%

 

Took advantage of a slow day to set up Easter Sunday tracking. I'd like to say I won't look at it again for a while, but with how much time the app is saving me, why not.  

 

Crawdads T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .758x (2.42m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Black Phone - 2.01x (5.23m)

 

Paws of Fury T-5 comps

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Peter Rabbit - .93x (837k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .19x (858k)

 - Encanto - .367x (550k)

 

Nope T-12 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .92x (3.82m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.36x (5.59m)

 - F9 - .543x (3.86m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.94m)

 

Looks like it'll be T-7 for Halloween Kills and T-6 for Candyman comps to start.   

Paws of Fury is nearly locked for sub-$10M while Crawdads is a big wild card, but gut is telling me it will open with $20M.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4 (Sat)	PLF	82	4,597	4,597	16,938	27.14%	$15.02	$69,041.72
		Standard	155	2,987	2,987	20,994	14.23%	$10.70	$31,975.11
	Thor 4 (Sat) Total		237	7,584	7,584	37,932	19.99%	$13.32	$101,016.83

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4 (Sat)	N	122	3,735	3,735	19,598	19.06%	$15.25	$56,973.66
		Y	115	3,849	3,849	18,334	20.99%	$11.44	$44,043.17
	Thor 4 (Sat) Total		237	7,584	7,584	37,932	19.99%	$13.32	$101,016.83

 

Very close to Friday T-1 (7,776 sold).  I only polled Batman and Minions Sat on Fri.

 

Rough Sat T-1 comp

 - Batman - .93x (40.23m)

 

If it continues to follow Friday sales, adjusted comps would put Saturday at 43.5m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4 (Sat)	PLF	82	1,712	6,309	16,938	37.25%	$14.90	$94,019.41
		Standard	155	2,188	5,175	20,994	24.65%	$10.43	$53,965.94
	Thor 4 (Sat) Total		237	3,900	11,484	37,932	30.28%	$12.89	$147,985.35

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4 (Sat)	N	122	1,558	5,293	19,598	27.01%	$15.00	$79,393.10
		Y	115	2,342	6,191	18,334	33.77%	$11.08	$68,592.25
	Thor 4 (Sat) Total		237	3,900	11,484	37,932	30.28%	$12.89	$147,985.35

 

T-1 to T-0 sales for Thor

Thu: 9,248 to 11,332

Fri: 7,776 to 11,239

Sat: 7,584 to 11,484

 

Crazy how close all three days finished in tickets sold.

 

Unadjusted T-0 Sat comps

 - NWH - .542x (40.04m)

 - Batman - 1x (43.43m)

 - DS2 - .643x (37.14m)

 - TG2 - 1.28x (48.77m)

 - JW3 - .742x (34.77m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 41m Fri)

 - NWH - 44.1m

 - Batman - 44.56m

 - DS2 - 39.49m

 - TG2 - 45.94m

 - JW3 - 45.5m

 

Looking at how final presales multipliers change from Fri to Sat, only DS2 has decreased (6%) while all other comps have increased between 5% and 10%.  I want to balance summer (higher walkups) and the slightly worse reception/reviews to give around a 2% increase in multiplier.  That would put Saturday at 42.9m.

Edited July 9, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Updated comps

[LegendaryBen]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4 (Sat)	PLF	82	1,712	6,309	16,938	37.25%	$14.90	$94,019.41
		Standard	155	2,188	5,175	20,994	24.65%	$10.43	$53,965.94
	Thor 4 (Sat) Total		237	3,900	11,484	37,932	30.28%	$12.89	$147,985.35

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4 (Sat)	N	122	1,558	5,293	19,598	27.01%	$15.00	$79,393.10
		Y	115	2,342	6,191	18,334	33.77%	$11.08	$68,592.25
	Thor 4 (Sat) Total		237	3,900	11,484	37,932	30.28%	$12.89	$147,985.35

 

T-1 to T-0 sales for Thor

Thu: 9,248 to 11,332

Fri: 7,776 to 11,239

Sat: 7,584 to 11,484

 

Crazy how close all three days finished in tickets sold.

 

Unadjusted T-0 Sat comps

 - NWH - .53x (39.19m)

 - Batman - .98x (42.5m)

 - DS2 - .629x (36.35m)

 - TG2 - 1.255x (47.73m)

 - JW3 - .726x (34.03m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 41m Fri)

 - NWH - 43.16m

 - Batman - 43.61m

 - DS2 - 38.65m

 - TG2 - 44.96m

 - JW3 - 44.53m

 

Looking at how final presales multipliers change from Fri to Sat, only DS2 has decreased (6%) while all other comps have increased between 5% and 10%.  I want to balance summer (higher walkups) and the slightly worse reception/reviews to give around a 2% increase in multiplier.  That would put Saturday at 42.9m.

Thanks for this as usual. Canada had many technology outages yesterday, so the number may be slightly higher.

[filmlover]

I saw a huge billboard for Paws of Fury along the highway while in Orlando for 4th of July. Too bad for the movie that it probably won't make much of a difference at the box office.

[Legion Again]

Flat Sat PS nationally would certainly lead to an increase for final, so mostly a question of how much the santikos/national PS ratio changed compared to comps. JWD is a pretty great comp as it turned out — similar size OWs, summer vs summer, both meh reception. So that number is encouraging to me.

 

Edit: And @LegendaryBenmakes a good point about Canada. Hmm.    
 

Having more true Fri siphoned to Th than any of the mcu summer comps may help the sat bump — at minimum it is a partially opposing force to the weak side reception.

Edited July 9, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Inceptionzq]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-1 Saturday(335 showings): 7368(+2243)/80933

0.622x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (35.97M) [+2560]

0.956x Batman T-1 (41.34M)

0.315x NWH T-1 (23.29M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-0 Saturday(335 showings): 10294(+2926)/80933

0.674x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (38.99M) [+3423]

0.938x Batman T-0 (40.59M)

0.337x NWH T-0 (24.88M)

 

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Saturday(455 showings): 29452(+6788)/59738 ATP: $14.36

0.753x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (43.54M) [+5500]

0.892x Batman T-1 (38.59M)

0.672x NWH T-1 (49.69M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Saturday(455 showings): 34493(+5041)/59738 ATP: $14.32

0.789x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (45.63M) [+4594]

0.992x Batman T-0 (42.93M)

0.686x NWH T-0 (50.67M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Flat Sat PS nationally would certainly lead to an increase for final, so mostly a question of how much the santikos/national PS ratio changed compared to comps

 

Santikos flat, Megaplex -11%, Alamo +16%.  Not sure how many other samples we'll get this morning but I think that's a good sign for an increase today

[Liiviig 1998]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos flat, Megaplex -11%, Alamo +16%.  Not sure how many other samples we'll get this morning but I think that's a good sign for an increase today

Weekend should be around fallen kingdom numbers or a little more(148-149)