The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Brainbug]

My prediction is: 160,887,294 $

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Death on the Nile (EA)	Jacksonville	5	5	1,392	31	1	2.23%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	7	0	1.71%
		Raleigh	2	2	412	0	0	0.00%
	Death on the Nile (EA) Total		8	8	2,214	38	1	1.72%
T-2	Blacklight	Jacksonville	6	15	1,761	7	4	0.40%
		Phoenix	6	14	1,434	6	0	0.42%
		Raleigh	7	12	858	10	2	1.17%
	Blacklight Total		19	41	4,053	23	6	0.57%
T-2	Death on the Nile	Jacksonville	6	23	4,789	34	7	0.71%
		Phoenix	6	18	3,569	58	15	1.63%
		Raleigh	8	16	2,010	112	17	5.57%
	Death on the Nile Total		20	57	10,368	204	39	1.97%
T-2	Marry Me	Jacksonville	6	16	2,328	39	10	1.68%
		Phoenix	6	14	1,988	46	12	2.31%
		Raleigh	8	15	1,747	32	3	1.83%
	Marry Me Total		20	45	6,063	117	25	1.93%
T-9	Uncharted	Jacksonville	6	46	7,536	139	4	1.84%
		Phoenix	6	19	4,030	146	11	3.62%
		Raleigh	7	25	3,553	118	2	3.32%
	Uncharted Total		19	90	15,119	403	17	2.67%

 

Death on the Nile comps

Last Duel - 2.46x (880k)

Ghostbusters - .187x (776k)

Free Guy - .58x (1.28m)

Average - 972k

 

Marry Me comp

West Side Story - .81x (646k)

 

Blacklight comp

The Protege - .49x

 

Uncharted comps

TSS - 1.275x (5.23m)

NTTD - .76x (3.98m)

Dune - .588x (3m)

Average - 4.07m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Death on the Nile (EA)	Jacksonville	5	5	1,392	51	20	3.66%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	9	2	2.20%
		Raleigh	2	2	412	7	7	1.70%
	Death on the Nile (EA) Total		8	8	2,214	67	29	3.03%
T-1	Blacklight	Jacksonville	6	15	1,761	11	4	0.62%
		Phoenix	7	15	1,447	7	1	0.48%
		Raleigh	7	12	858	17	7	1.98%
	Blacklight Total		20	42	4,066	35	12	0.86%
T-1	Death on the Nile	Jacksonville	6	24	5,241	41	7	0.78%
		Phoenix	7	20	3,753	79	21	2.10%
		Raleigh	8	16	2,010	129	17	6.42%
	Death on the Nile Total		21	60	11,004	249	45	2.26%
T-1	Marry Me	Jacksonville	6	18	2,666	44	5	1.65%
		Phoenix	7	18	2,654	55	9	2.07%
		Raleigh	8	15	1,747	42	10	2.40%
	Marry Me Total		21	51	7,067	141	24	2.00%
T-8	Uncharted	Jacksonville	6	46	7,536	157	18	2.08%
		Phoenix	6	21	4,242	157	11	3.70%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,637	123	5	3.38%
	Uncharted Total		19	93	15,415	437	34	2.83%

 

Death on the Nile comps

Last Duel - 2.93x (1.025m)

Ghostbusters - .178x (737k)

Free Guy - .62x (1.36m)

Average - 1.04m

 

Marry Me comp

West Side Story - .76x (610k)

 

Blacklight comp

The Protege - .63x

 

Uncharted comps

TSS - 1.278x (5.24m)

NTTD - .742x (3.86m)

Dune - .588x (3m)

Average - 4.03m

[BruiseCruise]

What kind of OW are you guys seeing for Uncharted? 30-35m FSS is what i'd guess

[Dragoncaine]

I'm just guessing $185m for The Batman OW including these wild previews

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

What kind of OW are you guys seeing for Uncharted? 30-35m FSS is what i'd guess

Yea something around there. Previews will probably be $3.5-4.5M and it should go 8-10x off that. Right now I’d lean towards $4M and 9x for $36M.

[Krissykins]

I wonder if Death on the Nile could do $12-14m this weekend, or if it’ll be sub $10m. 
 

I seen Deadline saying Marry Me is tracking for mid teens, I wouldn’t be surprised with single digits.

[LegendaryBen]

14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I wonder if Death on the Nile could do $12-14m this weekend, or if it’ll be sub $10m. 
 

I seen Deadline saying Marry Me is tracking for mid teens, I wouldn’t be surprised with single digits.

I agree with DOTN. However, MM is also available on Peacock same day. How come you're predicting high for this? It would be great though for J. Lo.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

I agree with DOTN. However, MM is also available on Peacock same day. How come you're predicting high for this? It would be great though for J. Lo.

I wouldn’t considering single digits to be high. 

[LegendaryBen]

2 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

I wouldn’t considering single digits to be high. 

I thought he said double digits. My bad. Single digits will happen for MM.

[BruiseCruise]

I don't see anyway Marry Me does mid teens

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Now not really a comp, but NWH sold 1042 seats on 3 IMAX shows in its first 24 hours in Harkins while Eternals was 115 on 2 shows.

 

Batman so far has 137 sold.

 

348/435 so far in Harkins on 1 show.

 

NWH had 1042 on 3 IMAX shows and 1912 at the location in all 13 shows.

 

Eternals had 115 in IMAX and 152 overall. 

 

Not much to read here yet.

[charlie Jatinder]

So we have 6130 seats sold in 24 shows. 255 per. 

There are 365 shows I believe other day, so likely 70-75k tickets demand burned.

Edited February 10, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Tuesday Showings(6 hours)

 

Denver: 659 tickets sold in 4 theaters

Megaplex: 1274 tickets sold in 4 theaters

 

Denver has surpassed Black Widow's first 7 hours, which was 598 tickets sold. Megaplex is already close to Black Widow's T-22's 1519 tickets sold, which was like 5 days of sales.

The Batman Tuesday Showings(25 hours)

 

Denver: 832(+173) sold in 4 theaters

Megaplex: 1780(+506) sold in 4 theaters

 

Still strong as expected. The first day outpaced Black Widow in both areas. Megaplex looks very strong. But let's see how much this will deflate the first day of sales for the Wednesday/Thursday slates.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So we have 5624 seats sold in 24 shows. 234 per. 

There are 365 shows I believe other day, so likely 70-75k tickets demand burned.

I think Alpha sales will be off the chart. Lincoln sq itself has almost sold off its 2 imax shows and that is 480 seats per show. There are many other big imax shows that are nearly sold out as well. I hope @ZackM can run for early imax shows as there must be about 100 odd shows at alpha. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Alpha sales will be off the chart.

Off of which chart? I don’t think it’ll be even 50% of NWH (1st 24HR specifically).

[el sid]

Death on the Nile, counted today at 6am EST (earlier than usual) for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 74 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 27 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 24 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 130 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 95 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 359.
Up 69.5% since Monday.

Death on the Nile, counted today at 6am EST for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 62 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 19 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 14 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 25 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 120 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 108 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 357.
Up 80.5% since Monday. Decent. And it does not seem to be frontloaded (for the first two days).

Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): The Last Duel (4.8M OW) had 96 sold tickets in 7 theaters,

Stillwater (5.2M OW) had 41 in 6 theaters,

West Side Story (10.6M OW) had 511 sold tickets,

Jungle Cruise (35.0M OW) had 655 sold tickets

and Moonfall (9.9M OW) had 288 sold tickets.
House of Gucci's (14.4M OW) final number (on Friday for Friday) was 1.048.
 

For the Early Access shows today it had 289 sold tickets in 4 theaters (Lincoln Square instead of Fresh Meadows).
Comps: NTTD had also on Wednesday for Wednesday 926 sold tickets also in 4 theaters

and The Investor Connect Screening of Jackass (not exactly the same genre) had 155 sold tickets on Tuesday for Tuesday.
I stay cautiously optimistic that it can reach mid-teens.

Blacklight had today 63 and 21 sold tickets for Thursday respectively Friday.
Comp: Copshop (2.3M OW) had on the same day 34 and 26 sold tickets.

The The Batman Tuesday show in the AMC Fresh Meadows was - also 8 hours ago - sold out. Additionally I had tons of error reports today, clearly too much traffic.
 

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Off of which chart? I don’t think it’ll be even 50% of NWH (1st 24HR specifically).

I am saying relative to other chains the number of imax are higher. No comps with NWH for now. i am just looking at early imax sales for now. Let us wait until tomorrow for regular preview sales. I think It will not be close to NWH but crush everything else by a mile looking at how demand is consistent almost everywhere. 

 

FYI I just looked at few imax at alpha and see 6155/7249(22 shows) among non sold out shows(including lincoln sq). I saw another half a dozen sold out imax shows at NYC(34th st), LA area(all 3 shows) and 1 imax show at Austin/San Antonio Tx. 

 

Plus with inflated ticket prices in many theaters in alpha and big release for thursday(I already see 3AM listing at Empire 25 !!! ), previews will be huge. I feel good about my 35m prediction for thursday previews at this point. 

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	56	427	371	86.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

371

 

COMPS WILL APPEAR STARTING THURSDAY

 

===

 

Actually down a smidge from an hour or two ago, as people presumably cancel placeholder tickets. 

 

The reason there is only two showings locally instead of the three I mentioned last night is because the local TrueIMAX was originally listed on The Batman website as one of the locations that was gonna show the Fan First Event. It never put up a showtime, however, and tickets never went on sale there. 

 

At some point this morning, that theater location was removed from the official website, so I presume either the deal to show it fell through, or more likely, someone just plugged in all of the IMAX locations in the US and never cross-referenced it with the actual site that were booked to have the early screening.

 

Since there's only two showings, no reason at all to bring in comps.  Will roll in the tickets sold for the Day One Comps once Thursday comes to pass.

 

NB: Tuesday March 1st has no listings at all for the theater in question, so if it ever pops up (unlikely as that might be), I'll make a note of it and add it to the totals. 

 

LOOOOLLLL.  Tickets now up for the local TrueIMAX theater for March 1st.   388 more seats added to Tuesday Sneaks.

 

(really curious to see how well it sells given this is a day later than expected — decent amount of sales so far today, but nowhere close to the tsunami of yesterday)

 

Anyone reading this in the Sacto area, lots of reasonably good seats still available AND at the normal price for that theater ($18 +$2 service fee).

Edited February 9, 2022 by Porthos

[grim22]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

LOOOOLLLL.  Tickets now up for the TrueIMAX local theater for March 1st.   388 more seats added to Tuesday Sneaks.

 

(really curious to see how well it sells given this is a day later than expected — decent amount of sales so far today, but no where close to the tsunami of yesterday)

 

Anyone reading this in the Sacto area, lots of reasonably good seats still available AND at the normal price for that theater ($18 +$2 service fee).

Someone at that theater definitely screwed up by releasing the tickets in between 2 different sales windows opening. Will likely sell out tomorrow instead of today just because anyone who was looking for those tickets yesterday probably decided to wait till tomorrow to get Thursday ones.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

FWIW, my theater looks to be starting with 28 showtimes for Thursday. This doesn’t include the Tuesday IMAX.
 

NWH started with 15 but that was clearly a miscalculation on their part. They expanded it to 31 in less than 36 hours.

 

NWH ended with 58 Thursday showtimes, while Endgame had 50.