The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

16 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Don't Worry Darling Harkins T-1 Day

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
98	26,473	1,806	6.82%	$21,294	$11.79

 

Comps

1.26x of Where the Crawdads Sing - $2.9M

0.49x of Elvis - $1.75M

0.79x of Bullet Train - $3.6M

At 6PM, in Harkins Don't Worry Darling

 

THU - 3031/27236 (101 showings) $35,149

 

Looks like 3.6-3.8K final. That would be around $2.4-2.7M approx. May be around $2.8-3.1M with early access.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Don't Worry Darling Marcus Theaters:

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 579

Seats Sold: 5907/81611

 

0.52x Elvis (4.76m)

 

Poor growth over the last two days. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 6PM, in Harkins Don't Worry Darling

 

THU - 3031/27236 (101 showings) $35,149

 

Looks like 3.6-3.8K final. That would be around $2.4-2.7M approx. May be around $2.8-3.1M with early access.

At 8:50PM, in Harkins Don't Worry Darling

THU - 3704/27236 (101 showings) $43,139

6 shows left, will add another 100-125 or so in those for 3.8-3.83K final. Harkins suggest $2.5-2.75M. It may underindex a bit as it didn't had any early access screenings, so possibly ~$3M. Weekend thinking around $17-20M for now.

[Eric Twister]

15 hours ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Avatar Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Wednesday Before Release (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	587	11809	4.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

2.446x of E.T. Wednesday Before Release (1.2M)

1.696x of Rogue One Wednesday Before Release (849K)

1.319x of Jaws Wednesday Before Release (1.15M)

1.658x of No Way Home Wednesday Before Release (2.91M)

Avatar Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	756	11809	6.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 169

 

Comp

2.908x of E.T. (1.42M)

1.964x of Rogue One (982K)

1.362x of Jaws (1.19M)

1.783x of No Way Home (3.13M)

[snarkmachine]

I wonder what the industry will view as a “win” for DWD. $20m OW seems pretty good for it’s ~45m budget 

[charlie Jatinder]

What is 3D/2D divide for Avatar in regions y'all tracking. I will look more in detail soon but eyeballing the sales 2D is outselling 3D. I expected it to be very 3D heavy.

 

Edit:

 

Ok my bad. The shows I was checking, listed as 2D are actually PLFs. Which though in 2D but are better than normal 2D pricing.

Edited September 23, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[DAJK]

Maybe DWD is just overindexing in BC but the rest of tonight was very strong. My numbers range on the lowest end at $2.6M and high end some locations comped at $6.4M for previews.

 

Removing some outliers, things seem to be settling in at around $3.8M. But quite a few locations still have me confident in over $4M, I just don't want to go too far out on a limb just in case that doesn't pan out.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 8:50PM, in Harkins Don't Worry Darling

THU - 3704/27236 (101 showings) $43,139

6 shows left, will add another 100-125 or so in those for 3.8-3.83K final. Harkins suggest $2.5-2.75M. It may underindex a bit as it didn't had any early access screenings, so possibly ~$3M. Weekend thinking around $17-20M for now.

Don't Worry Darling Harkins

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
101	27,236	3,823	14.04%	$44,596	$11.67

 

Yeah right where it was expected. $2.6-2.8M from these numbers. Giving some previews adjustment can come around $3M, won't be surprised with former numbers though.

 

FRI sales look like $5.75-6.25M.

[DAJK]

Holy crap... looking at Avatar tomorrow and it’s selling WELL. Like, EXTREMELY well.

[Krissykins]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Don't Worry Darling Harkins

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
101	27,236	3,823	14.04%	$44,596	$11.67

 

Yeah right where it was expected. $2.6-2.8M from these numbers. Giving some previews adjustment can come around $3M, won't be surprised with former numbers though.

 

FRI sales look like $5.75-6.25M.

So that should be comfortably over $20m then, a win. 
 

Budget is $35m. 

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So that should be comfortably over $20m then

Not really, no.
 

Maybe over 20. Something like 3.5-6-5.5-3.5 also quite possible. In fact I think it’s very likely to miss 20 with a 6M true fri.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Not really, no.
 

Maybe over 20. Something like 3.5-6-5.5-3.5 also quite possible. In fact I think it’s very likely to miss 20 with a 6M true fri.

Mmm. That -37% Sunday drop looks harsh to me. 
 

We’ll see. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Krissykins

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Mmm. That -37% Sunday drop looks harsh to me. 
 

We’ll see. 

Don't think SUN drop will matter much if first 3 days are what @Legion By Night put lol.

 

Unless Harkins underindex heavily, 20M seems hard. 

[Krissykins]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Don't think SUN drop will matter much if first 3 days are what @Legion By Night put lol.

 

Unless Harkins underindex heavily, 20M seems hard. 

It does when I also don’t think it’ll have as big a drop on Saturday from true Friday, lol. 
 

We’ll find out soon though. Obviously missing $20m from $3m+ previews is already extreme frontloading especially for a film like this, so maybe it’ll drop off a cliff atrer Thu/Fri. 

[Maggie]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Black Adam ($55-70M Opening/$135-175M Domestic Total) and Ticket to Paradise ($12-17M Opening/$40-65M Domestic Total)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-black-adam-and-ticket-to-paradise/

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Black Adam ($55-70M Opening/$135-175M Domestic Total) and Ticket to Paradise ($12-17M Opening/$40-65M Domestic Total)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-black-adam-and-ticket-to-paradise/

 

 

@Porthos

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

@Porthos

 

 

Porthos has sworn to track everything over $5M right? 

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Porthos has sworn to track everything over $5M right? 

There’s no hard line. I think they were 7previews/70 OW prepandemic but started taking swings at 4/40 during recovery.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Black Adam ($55-70M Opening/$135-175M Domestic Total) and Ticket to Paradise ($12-17M Opening/$40-65M Domestic Total)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-black-adam-and-ticket-to-paradise/

 

 

Interestingly, no film has had an OW in that Black Adam range in after times, Between NTTD ($55.2) and Fast9 ($70.0)

[GOGODanca]

On 9/22/2022 at 9:04 AM, GOGODanca said:

DWD Thursday Update

 

472 tickets sold across 50 showtimes (28.6% growth, 1 new showtime)

 

 

Friday Update:

 

DWD:  346 tickets sold across 86 showtimes (34.1% growth, 5 new showtimes)

 

Avatar: 574 tickets sold across 55 showtimes(28.1% growth, 2 less showtimes)

 

On 9/22/2022 at 9:04 AM, GOGODanca said:

DWD Thursday Update

 

472 tickets sold across 50 showtimes (28.6% growth, 1 new showtime)

 

 

Friday Update:

 

DWD:  346 tickets sold across 86 showtimes (34.1% growth, 5 new showtimes)

 

Avatar: 574 tickets sold across 55 showtimes(28.1% growth, 2 less showtimes)

 

Avatar Update about 22 hours later

 

 

750 tickets sold across 55 showtimes (30.7% growth)

 

 

Saturday numbers collected 5 minutes ago:

548 tickets sold across 60 showtimes 

Edited September 23, 2022 by GOGODanca