The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It's.... interesting you say that, as I'm now getting constant 431 errors on Fandango as I try to grab seat maps.  I suspect it's either some sort of hidden flood control or much more likely, shitty HTML coding, as even normally I've been recently getting a slight pause between checking shows.  And I suspect there's some sort of caching errors going on between shows from that pause.

 

Only work around I've found is to refresh the landing page I have for all shows EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

 

This keeps up, I might have to be forced to check my chains individually.  Which would not make me happy.  At All.

 

(and, no Jat, Atom isn't really a great option for me)

Isn't that an issue with fandango than chains? I just made the comment based on how MTC1/2 worked this morning. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(and, no Jat, Atom isn't really a great option for me)

What's the issue you facing?

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What's the issue you facing?

 

1] Only covers about 40% of my chains.

2] Checking via HTML source code instead of Inspect Element is a gigantic PITA.  At least for my workflow.

 

The way I do things is just not Atom friendly.

 

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Isn't that an issue with fandango than chains? I just made the comment based on how MTC1/2 worked this morning. 

 

Well, sure.  But I was coming to gripe about Fandango, and this was as good a landing spot as any.

 

Anyway, I can now say with 99% certainty, this is some sort of hidden flood control (probably cookie based) as I'm now getting 431 errors even after refreshing my landing page.

 

Not.

Happy. 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

1] Only covers about 40% of my chains.

2] Checking via HTML source code instead of Inspect Element is a gigantic PITA.  At least for my workflow.

 

The way I do things is just not Atom friendly.

 

 

Well, sure.  But I was coming to gripe about Fandango, and this was as good a landing spot as any.

 

Anyway, I can now say with 99% certainty, this is some sort of hidden flood control (probably cookie based) as I'm now getting 431 errors even after refreshing my landing page.

 

Not.

Happy. 

I hope you figure it out as your data is the most important one considering you tracked BP. I dont think any other tracker have comps with the 1st movie. 

[misterpepp]

As somewhat expected, Disney is extending the run of the Avatar re-release beyond the two weeks that was promoted. Seeing showtimes listed for this weekend.

[Eric Loves Rey]

Quorum Updates

Till T-25: 22.26% Awareness, 5.45 Interest

One Piece Film: Red T-32: 19.89%, 4.57

Bones and All T-51: 12.82%, 4.69

A Man Called Ove T-72: 13.88%, 4.83

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-172: 50.37%, 6.58

 

Amsterdam T-4: 29.2% Awareness, 5.53 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Last Duel w/ 28.89% Awareness & 5.09 Interest, Nightmare Alley w/ 33.92% & 5.41, The 355 w/ 27.69% & 5.26, Moonfall w/ 37.24% & 5.54, The Northman w/ 35.92% & 5.22

*Note the Final number for Amsterdam is subject to change in the coming days*

 

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 88% chance of double-digits, 76% over 20M

Original - High Awareness: 0% chance of double-digit opening

Original - High Interest: 67% of double-digits and 20M

 

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile T-4: 34.99% Awareness, 4.95 Interest

Comps (All Final): Spirit Untamed w/ 38.66% Awareness & 5.2 Interest, Peter Rabbit 2 w/ 41.22% & 5.26, Ron's Gone Wrong w/ 26.4% & 5.05, Paws of Fury w/ 45.27% & 5.23

 

Final General Awareness: 27% chance of double-digit opening, 

General Interest: 24% chance of double-digit opening

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of double-digit opening

Animation/Family Interest: 57% chance of double-digit opening

*Note the Final number for Lyle, Lyle Crocodile is subject to change*

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-39: 61.36% Awareness, 6.76 Interest

Comps (All T-30): Spider-Man: No Way Home w/ 51.47% Awareness & 6.36 Interest, The Batman w/ 69.08% & 6.65, Doctor Strange 2 w/ 54.35% & 6.46, Thor: Love and Thunder w/ 51.58% & 6.35

 

T-30 General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 70M, 71% chance over 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Violent Night T-60: 18.15% Awareness, 5.07 Interest

Comps (All T-60): The Protege w/ 17.79% Awareness & 5.63, Last Night in Soho w/ 18.3% 4.59, Unbearable Weight w/ 17.2% & 4.76, The Woman King w/ 17.2% & 4.8

 

T-60 General Awareness: 46% chance of double-digits, 21% over 20M

General Interest: 80% chance of double-digits, 65% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 30% chance of double-digits, 20% chance of double-digits

Original - Low Interest: 62.5% chance of 5M, 37.5% chance of 10M

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I hope you figure it out as your data is the most important one considering you tracked BP. I dont think any other tracker have comps with the 1st movie. 

 

Not gonna comp for BP as the local theater landscape is ****FAR**** too different now.  Like, immensely too different.  I don't think it'd be possible for me to adjust it, frankly.

 

(not to mention BP2 will be much more frontloaded than BP1)

((plus, I didn't start to track BP1 until partway into the track)

[Porthos]

Anyway, after fighting with Fandango for the better part of the day, finally got done setting up my sheets.

 

BP2 2:15pm:                  2197/33919 [6.48% sold] 270 showtimes

 

NWH 2am:                     6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                  10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman 12:45 pm:      1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:              5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

L&T 12:15pm:              2519/31603 [7.97% sold]

 

 

===

 

Pattern observation is a little skewed given I didn't get to some theaters until later in the day than I normally do, but I will say that this is, unsurprisingly, playing much stronger in the urban/black parts of the Greater Sacramento region and not nearly as strong in the bedroom communities/exurbs.

 

Can't comment more than that tho, simply coz I had to fight Fandango so much (ended up clearing out all my cookies, and even then it was a chore).

Edited October 3, 2022 by Porthos

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

As somewhat expected, Disney is extending the run of the Avatar re-release beyond the two weeks that was promoted. Seeing showtimes listed for this weekend.

what country? I have to assume domestic

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Hey guys how do you get the ticket sales data without doing it manually?

 

 

This got lost in all of the handwringing comments about BP2's start, so I'll give it a response now.

 

Some folks here have developed scrapers that work with some chains.

Some folks here use keyword searches from individual theater chains' showtimes (either via HTML source code or via Inspect Element) or have some other shortcut method to speed up a count

And some folks here are mad enough to actually count the seats in each showtime manually.

 

So, the answer it, it depends on the tracker.

[Potiki]

34 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

what country? I have to assume domestic

It got extended in New Zealand as well until at least next Tuesday.

 

However it loses PLF screens on Thursday and goes down to one 3D regular screen showing a day so don't expect it to make nearly as much as in the first 2 weeks. 

 

edit: just looked up the theatre I used to go to fairly regularly in Australia and it has been extended there as well through at least Wednesday 12th of October, 2 screenings a day in 4DX. 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Potiki

[keysersoze123]

On 6/14/2022 at 10:03 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Thor Love and Thunder MTC2 Previews

 56942/511129 820531.90 3219 shows

 

Not bad at all but even the release is smaller in MTC2 unlike MTC1 which has started with 6K+ shows. So this will have huge MTC1 ratio. So for 25m previews I am expecting ~ 460K AT MTC1 and around 350K in MTC2. Let us see how things go. 

 

  

On 4/6/2022 at 9:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dr Strange 2 MTC2 Previews - 96972/649166 1346875.55 4371 shows

 

That took EONS for sure. 

 

 

 

BP:WF MTC2 previews - 32238/576655 478810.54 4233 shows

 

Here you go 1st number for BP2 from MTC2. Thor 4 above is overnight run and so this is slightly shorter though PS tend to be heavily frontloaded on OD. Good news is it already has 1K+ shows more than Thor 4. Bad news is in raw number. Let us see how things go. I will update tomorrow before looking at friday data as this takes a long time to run. 

 

I am more curious as to how MTC1 is going and of course based on expectations set @Eric Smiley's update should be at NWH level considering the target audience. Let us see how things go. At least the BO tracking has woken up from extended slumber. Black Adam looking at cursory glance looks BAD.

 

Edit: Updated with DS2 numbers as well. That was a beast. FYI I do not have NWH od presales as it was just not working at all that day :-)

 

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by keysersoze123

[misterpepp]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

what country? I have to assume domestic

 

Correct. Sorry, I should've specified. Although, as Potiki pointed out, it seems to be getting extended in a few other territories as well.

Edited October 4, 2022 by datpepper

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/2/2022 at 4:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

101

1482

6.82%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

68

1436

4.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
348	44	20747	1.68%	14	99

 

AMCs sold	267
Cinemarks sold	46
Regals sold	15
Harkins sold	20

 

0.208x Jurassic World 3 T-18 (3.75M)

0.387x Eternals Day 4 (3.68M)

0.538x Shang-Chi Day 4 (4.73M)

1.51x Suicide Squad T-18 (6.18M)

 

No Batman comp today. Gonna switch to T-X comps for Eternals tomorrow. SC will have to be sidelined for a bit because of its shorter presale window.

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

110

1482

7.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

68

1436

4.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
406	58	20747	1.96%	15	99

 

AMCs sold	315
Cinemarks sold	49
Regals sold	18
Harkins sold	24

 

0.232x Jurassic World 3 T-17 (4.18M)

0.134x Batman T-17 (2.89M)

0.359x Eternals T-17 (3.41M)

1.71x Suicide Squad T-17 (6.99M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/2/2022 at 5:01 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Megaplex

 

T-18 Thursday(68 showings): 217(+26)/22864

0.168x Jurassic World T-18 (3.06M)

0.289x Eternals Day 4 (2.74M)

0.353x Shang-Chi Day 4 (3.11M)

 

T-19 Friday(111 showings): 146(+10)/38878

0.123x Jurassic World T-19 (5.12M)

0.435x Eternals Day 4 (9.28M)

0.401x Shang-Chi Day 4 (8.30M)

 

T-20 Saturday(105 showings): 113(+21)/37304

0.133x Jurassic World T-20 (6.24M)

0.562x Eternals Day 4 (13.56M)

 

T-21 Sunday(102 showings): 48(+6)/35906

0.211x Jurassic World T-21 (8.14M)

0.716x Eternals Day 4 (11.69M)

Black Adam Megaplex

 

T-17 Thursday(68 showings): 271(+54)/22864

0.200x Jurassic World T-17 (3.60M)

0.072x Batman T-17 (1.55M)

0.312x Eternals T-17 (2.97M)

 

T-18 Friday(111 showings): 183(+37)/38878

0.144x Jurassic World T-18 (5.99M)

0.159x Batman T-18 (5.56M)

0.380x Eternals T-18 (8.11M)

 

T-19 Saturday(105 showings): 168(+55)/37304

0.187x Jurassic World T-19 (8.77M)

0.297x Batman T-19 (12.86M)

0.606x Eternals T-19 (14.62M)

 

T-20 Sunday(102 showings): 62(+14)/35906

0.256x Jurassic World T-20 (9.88M)

0.579x Batman T-20 (19.78M)

0.785x Eternals T-20 (12.82M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/2/2022 at 5:06 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-18 Thursday(111 showings): 838(+68)/17669 ATP: $15.39

0.216x Jurassic World T-18 (3.89M)

0.253x Eternals T-18 (2.40M)

 

T-19 Friday(132 showings): 614(+49)/21196 ATP: $15.56

0.173x Jurassic World T-19 (7.19M)

0.224x Eternals T-19 (478M)

 

T-20 Saturday(139 showings): 680(+82)/22286 ATP: $14.93

0.195x Jurassic World T-20 (9.15M)

0.256x Eternals T-20 (6.18M)

 

T-21 Sunday(118 showings): 199(+26)/18818 ATP: $13.77

0.134x Jurassic World T-21 (5.18M)

0.136x Eternals T-21 (2.22M)

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-17 Thursday(111 showings): 995(+157)/17669 ATP: $15.32

0.248x Jurassic World T-17 (4.46M)

0.140x Batman T-17 (2.46M, Thurs only)

0.284x Eternals T-17 (2.70M)

 

T-18 Friday(132 showings): 736(+122)/21196 ATP: $15.61

0.109x Batman T-18 (3.82M)

0.255x Eternals T-18 (5.45M)

 

T-19 Saturday(139 showings): 794(+114)/22286 ATP: $14.86

0.139x Batman T-19 (6.05M)

0.283x Eternals T-19 (6.83M)

 

T-20 Sunday(118 showings): 230(+31)/18818 ATP: $13.51

0.148x Jurassic World T-20 (5.71M)

0.100x Batman T-20 (3.43M)

0.149x Eternals T-20 (2.44M)

 

JW Friday and Saturday were giving me errors that day, so no comps.

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

276

3301

8.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

217

2758

7.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 4.5 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1238	1238	30977	4.00%	14	214

 

AMCs sold	914
Cinemarks sold	165
Regals sold	85
Harkins sold	74

 

0.487x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (14.12M)

0.461x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (16.59M)

0.820x Batman first 6 hours (17.71M)

2.07x Black Widow first 7 hours (27.33M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

395

3301

11.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

282

2758

10.22%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 7 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1759	521	31920	5.51%	15	220

 

AMCs sold	1191
Cinemarks sold	305
Regals sold	121
Harkins sold	142

 

0.692x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (20.06M)

0.407x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (14.67M)

2.37x Black Widow first 18 hours (31.25M)

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-38 Thursday(82 showings): 532/25667

0.260x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (7.55M)

0.164x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (5.90M)

0.242x Batman first 6 hours (5.23M)

 

T-39 Friday(162 showings): 285/45630

0.335x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (16.60M)

0.232x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (12.70M)

0.467x Batman first 6 hours (16.35M)

 

T-40 Saturday(149 showings): 102/43450

0.291x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (12.25M)

0.218x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (12.60M)

0.400x Batman first 6 hours (17.304M)

 

T-41 Sunday(137 showings): 20/41486

0.220x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (7.15M)

0.244x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (9.49M)

0.833x Batman first 6 hours (28.45M)

 

Half of the theaters didn't have showtimes up until around 2 hours ago. I also expect it to massively underindex here

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-38 Thursday(86 showings): 1003(+471)/26721

0.491x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (14.24M)

0.234x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (8.41M)

 

T-39 Friday(162 showings): 464(+179)/45630

0.545x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (27.00M)

0.268x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (14.66M)

 

T-40 Saturday(149 showings): 185(+83)/43450

0.529x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (22.28M)

0.247x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (14.28M)

 

T-41 Sunday(137 showings): 30(+10)/41486

0.330x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (10.73M)

0.227x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (8.83M)

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-38 Thursday(219 showings): 5081/30510 ATP: $16.22

0.707x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (20.50M)

0.581x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (20.92M)

1.02x Batman first 6.5 hours (17.99M, Thurs only)

 

T-39 Friday(327 showings): 3342/46457 ATP: $16.05

0.726x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (35.94M)

0.636x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (34.80M)

0.808x Batman first 6.5 hours (28.28M)

 

T-40 Saturday(330 showings): 2361/47364 ATP: $15.81

0.611x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (25.73M)

0.545x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (31.51M)

0.767x Batman first 6.5 hours (33.18M)

 

T-41 Sunday(319 showings): 770/45087 ATP: $15.60

0.441x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (14.32M)

0.586x Doctor Strange MoM first 4.5 hours (22.81M)

0.682x Batman first 6.5 hours (23.28M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-38 Thursday(219 showings): 6399(+1318)/30510 ATP: $16.15

0.890x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (25.81M)

0.585x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (21.07M)

 

T-39 Friday(327 showings): 4909(+1567)/46457 ATP: $16.11

1.07x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (53.02M)

0.666x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (36.46M)

 

T-40 Saturday(330 showings): 3664(+1303)/47364 ATP: $15.66

0.948x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (39.92M)

0.558x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (32.27M)

 

T-41 Sunday(319 showings): 1293(+523)/45087 ATP: $15.27

0.740x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (24.04M)

0.566x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours (22.03M)

[misterpepp]

Another date that might get lost in the shuffle of Black Panther tracking, and one that was announced a while back (so I'm running the risk of sounding redundant, but I guess this can be a reminder): One Piece Film: Red goes on sale this Thursday.