The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I doubt it. I bet they follow the same strategy as Three Billboards. 2 weeks of platform release, and then like high hundreds/low 1000s in week 3, and then add some here and there for the rest of the run

Maybe, but Disney era Searchlight has mostly been operating differently than they did in the Fox era so you never know what their plans are lol.

[filmnerdjamie]

6 hours ago, Maggie said:

2022’s Last Hopes: Box Office Projections for ‘Avatar 2,’ ‘Black Adam,’ ‘Black Panther 2’

 

 

• 'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million

• 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million

• 'Black Adam': $328 million

• 'Halloween Ends': $130 million

https://variety.com/vip/2022s-last-hopes-box-office-projections-for-avatar-2-black-adam-black-panther-2-1235388447/

 

Black Adam - $328M?

 

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric Smiley said:

Halloween Ends Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	471	13186	3.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 74

 

Comp

1.266x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-14 (24.52M)

5.962x of The Conjuring 3 T-14 (58.46M)

1.658x of Scream T-14 (5.8M)

Halloween Ends Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	522	13263	3.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

1.298x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-13 (25.15M)

6.214x of The Conjuring 3 T-13 (60.93M)

1.844x of Halloween Kills T-13 (8.94M)

1.757x of Scream T-13 (6.15M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric Smiley said:

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	336	18174	1.85%

 

Comp

0.683x of F9 T-21 (4.85M)

0.237x of Black Widow T-21 (3.13M)

2.049x of The Suicide Squad T-21 (8.4M)

1.116x of Venom 2 T-21 (12.95M)

0.307x of Eternals T-21 (2.92M)

0.093x of The Batman T-21 (2.01M)

0.449x of Top Gun 2 T-21 (8.64M)

0.241x of Jurassic World 3 T-21 (4.33M)

 

Little all over the place and these comps are obviously all subject to change. But even though it probably won't reach that high, being double The Suicide Squad with similar patterns seems very very good to me.

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	443	18174	2.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 107

 

Comp

0.831x of F9 T-20 (5.9M)

0.302x of Black Widow T-20 (3.98M)

2.332x of The Suicide Squad T-20 (9.56M)

1.266x of Venom 2 T-20 (14.68M)

1.367x of No Time to Die T-20 (8.61M)

0.388x of Eternals T-20 (3.68M)

0.111x of The Batman T-20 (2.39M)

0.488x of Top Gun 2 T-20 (9.4M)

0.312x of Jurassic World 3 T-20 (5.63M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	21387	21813	426	1.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

426

 

Day 1 Comps    

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	239.33		178	178		0/69	11531/11709	1.52%		2352	18.11%		9.81m
SC	76.90		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		5847	7.29%		6.77m
LTBC	122.41		348	348		0/127	21962/22310	1.56%		7712	5.52%		14.20m
ET	48.74		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		6409	6.65%		4.63m
Bats	14.79		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	3.62%		3.19m
Morb	116.08		367	367		0/124	17244/17611	2.08%		3477	12.25%		6.62m
JW	59.58		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		10966	3.88%		10.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two days of early access only sales totaling 475 tickets, which are counted as part of the total tickets sold but not as “Day 1” sales.

 

===

 

Man, it figures that the film I come back to for tracking has rotten comps locally.  Like, I'm not really sure I have a even a single decent comp for it.  One of the big problems is that historically DC under-performs in Sacramento (at least relative to Marvel), so even using mid-range Marvel movies like Shang-Chi or Eternals is problematic, and that's before getting into the ATP hikes that began to roll out just after Eternals bowed. 

 

In fact, I wasn't planning on using any comps from before Nov last year, but, well, The Batman is a pretty rotten comp, and I highly doubt Black Adam will follow JW:D's pre-sale patterns. Which just left Morbin' Time as a sole comp.  And while that might have been fun for shits and giggles, wouldn't have made for a good comp box.

 

So instead, throw out the outliers of Batsy and LTBC/JW and that gives a range of about 5m to 10m which... I dunno?  Maybe?  Or if one is skeptical of the TSS and Eternals comps,  about 6m to 8m (after adjusting for a diff between Marvel and DC locally)?

 

Honestly, kiiinda like the Shang-Chi comp, but I've already harped on the dangers of comping DC and Marvel locally.  Not to mention it'll need really good reviews to match SC's run.

 

Still, if folks got better ideas (and ideally after Nov '21), I'm open to them.

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	21311	21813	502	2.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

76

 

Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	236.79		34	212		0/81	13740/13952	1.52%		2352	21.34%		9.71m
SC	69.15		172	726		0/99	15764/16490	4.40%		5847	8.59%		6.08m
LTBC	120.38		69	417		0/146	23960/24377	1.71%		7712	6.51%		13.96m
ET	46.78		199	1073		0/96	14470/15543	6.90%		6409	7.83%		4.44m
Bats	15.52		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	4.27%		3.35m
Morb	103.51		118	485		0/127	18290/18775	2.58%		3477	14.44%		5.90m
JW:D	53.58		222	937		0/158	21395/22332	4.20%		10966	4.58%		9.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

[Factcheck]

14 hours ago, Maggie said:

2022’s Last Hopes: Box Office Projections for ‘Avatar 2,’ ‘Black Adam,’ ‘Black Panther 2’

 

 

• 'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million

• 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million

• 'Black Adam': $328 million

• 'Halloween Ends': $130 million

https://variety.com/vip/2022s-last-hopes-box-office-projections-for-avatar-2-black-adam-black-panther-2-1235388447/

This Variety guy has either overestimated all by $50-150M or underestimated BP2 & Avatar 2 by atleast $100M.

[charlie Jatinder]

Friday Harkins

 

Smile - 10363/58986 (223 showings) $116,729

 

Looks like $6.25-6.5M from this. $20M weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

Black Adam not bad at all. Better than I expected. Was expecting it to be around Morbius.

[Borf the Borf]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Black Adam not bad at all. Better than I expected. Was expecting it to be around Morbius.

Doesnt the rock have a decent BO track recrod? 

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Black Adam not bad at all. Better than I expected. Was expecting it to be around Morbius.

🤣

[ringedmortality]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Black Adam not bad at all. Better than I expected. Was expecting it to be around Morbius.

 

You were the only one

[DlAMONDZ]

Even if all they showed was that boring first trailer, this was opening above Morbius just on Rock's star power alone

[Menor the Destroyer]

I mean the sales aren't that much bigger than Morbius...seems like a bit of a premature call here. 

 

Going back through the thread.

 

Sacramento barely ahead of Morbius first 2 days.

Philly under Morbius first 2 days.

Phoenix/Raleigh/Jacksonville first day is under Morbius first day.

 

Overall it seems like a softer start than Morbius, a slightly shorter presale period, true, but...hardly worthy of the surety in some of the above posts. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/30/2022 at 9:39 AM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

74

1482

4.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

53

1436

3.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
249	249	20171	1.23%	14	95

 

AMCs sold	207
Cinemarks sold	31
Regals sold	9
Harkins sold	2

 

0.328x Jurassic World Dominion first 36 hours (5.90M)

0.104x Batman first 24 hours (2.24M)

0.356x Eternals first 17 hours (3.38M)

0.621x Shang-Chi first 17 hours (5.46M)

1.32x Suicide Squad T-20 (5.43M)

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

80

1482

5.40%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

64

1436

4.46%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
304	55	20747	1.47%	14	99

 

AMCs sold	239
Cinemarks sold	44
Regals sold	11
Harkins sold	10

 

0.190x Jurassic World T-19 (3.42M)

0.112x Batman T-19 (2.42M)

0.365x Eternals Day 3 (3.46M)

0.549x Shang-Chi Day 3 (4.83M)

 

No Suicide Squad comp today

Edited October 1, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/30/2022 at 9:52 AM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Megaplex

 

T-20 Thursday(68 showings): 150/23890

0.350x Jurassic World first 36 hours (6.29M)

0.05x Batman first 24 hours (1.10M)

0.303x Eternals first 17 hours (2.88M)

0.392x Shang-Chi first 17 hours (3.45M)

 

T-21 Friday(107 showings): 77/39510

0.296x Jurassic World first 36 hours (12.31M)

0.126x Batman first 24 hours (4.41M)

0.320x Eternals first 17 hours (6.83M)

0.356x Shang-Chi first 17 hours (7.37M)

 

T-22 Saturday(101 showings): 54/37936

0.280x Jurassic World first 36 hours (13.13M)

0.212x Batman first 24 hours (9.17M)

0.391x Eternals first 17 hours (9.43M)

 

T-23 Sunday(98 showings): 34/36538

1.13x Jurassic World first 36 hours (43.62M)

1.42x Batman first 24 hours (48.48M)

0.493x Eternals first 17 hours (8.05M)

 

Black Adam Megaplex

 

T-19 Thursday(68 showings): 191(+41)/22864

0.154x Jurassic World T-19 (2.76M)

0.053x Batman T-19 (1.15M)

0.307x Eternals Day 3 (2.92M)

0.353x Shang-Chi Day 3 (3.11M)

 

T-20 Friday(111 showings): 136(+59)/38878

0.119x Jurassic World T-20 (4.95M)

0.134x Batman T-20 (4.69M)

0.481x Eternals Day 3 (10.26M)

0.437x Shang-Chi Day 3 (9.05M)

 

T-21 Saturday(105 showings): 92(+38)/37304

0.116x Jurassic World T-21 (5.44M)

0.201x Batman T-21(8.71M)

0.505x Eternals Day 3 (12.18M)

 

T-22 Sunday(102 showings): 42(+8)/35906

0.192x Jurassic World T-22 (7.41M)

0.583x Batman T-22 (19.92M)

0.677x Eternals Day 3 (11.06M)

Edited October 2, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/30/2022 at 10:00 AM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-20 Thursday(111 showings): 630/17669 ATP: $15.53

0.330x Jurassic World first 36 hours (5.94M)

0.108x Batman first 24 hours (1.90M)

0.207x Eternals T-20 (1.97M)

 

T-21 Friday(132 showings): 456/21196 ATP: $15.58

0.357x Jurassic World first 36 hours (14.85M)

0.088x Batman first 24 hours (3.07M)

0.190x Eternals T-21 (4.05M)

 

T-22 Saturday(139 showings): 463/22286 ATP: $14.79

0.382x Jurassic World first 36 hours (17.91M)

0.114x Batman first 24 hours (4.94M)

0.206x Eternals T-22 (4.97M)

 

T-23 Sunday(118 showings): 133/18818 ATP: $13.50

0.304x Jurassic World first 36 hours (11.73M)

0.09x Batman first 24 hours (3.08M)

0.101x Eternals T-23 (1.65M)

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-19 Thursday(111 showings): 770(+140)/17669 ATP: $15.43

0.204x Jurassic World T-19 (3.67M)

0.118x Batman T-19 (2.08M)

0.243x Eternals T-19 (2.30M)

 

T-20 Friday(132 showings): 565(+109)/21196 ATP: $15.54

0.169x Jurassic World T-20 (7.03M)

0.093x Batman T-20(3.26M)

0.219x Eternals T-20 (4.67M)

 

T-21 Saturday(139 showings): 598(+135)/22286 ATP: $14.86

0.181x Jurassic World T-21 (8.49M)

0.121x Batman T-21(5.22M)

0.244x Eternals T-21 (5.89M)

 

T-22 Sunday(118 showings): 173(+40)/18818 ATP: $13.72

0.127x Jurassic World T-22 (4.90M)

0.092x Batman T-22 (3.16M)

0.126x Eternals T-22 (2.05M)

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

I mean the sales aren't that much bigger than Morbius...seems like a bit of a premature call here. 

 

Going back through the thread.

 

Sacramento barely ahead of Morbius first 2 days.

Philly under Morbius first 2 days.

Phoenix/Raleigh/Jacksonville first day is under Morbius first day.

 

Overall it seems like a softer start than Morbius, a slightly shorter presale period, true, but...hardly worthy of the surety in some of the above posts. 

Morbius started better than SC and Venom 2 at MTC2...

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Morbius started better than SC and Venom 2 at MTC2...

And despite that, it still ended up where it did. The whole point here was that a lot of people were prematurely declaring that Black Adam was doing better than Morbius. Sure, it's likely to do better if it doesn't get the same dogshit WOM, but it has had a start that is more or less similar to Morbius, or perhaps a bit weaker. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric Smiley said:

Halloween Ends Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	522	13263	3.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

1.298x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-13 (25.15M)

6.214x of The Conjuring 3 T-13 (60.93M)

1.844x of Halloween Kills T-13 (8.94M)

1.757x of Scream T-13 (6.15M)

Halloween Ends Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	603	13402	4.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Comp

1.331x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-12 (25.78M)

5.912x of The Conjuring 3 T-12 (57.96M)

1.861x of Halloween Kills T-12 (9.03M)

1.902x of Scream T-12 (6.66M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric Smiley said:

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	443	18174	2.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 107

 

Comp

0.831x of F9 T-20 (5.9M)

0.302x of Black Widow T-20 (3.98M)

2.332x of The Suicide Squad T-20 (9.56M)

1.266x of Venom 2 T-20 (14.68M)

1.367x of No Time to Die T-20 (8.61M)

0.388x of Eternals T-20 (3.68M)

0.111x of The Batman T-20 (2.39M)

0.488x of Top Gun 2 T-20 (9.4M)

0.312x of Jurassic World 3 T-20 (5.63M)

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	501	18174	2.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.879x of F9 T-19 (6.24M)

0.332x of Black Widow T-19 (4.39M)

2.456x of The Suicide Squad T-19 (10.07M)

1.358x of Venom 2 T-19 (15.75M)

1.275x of No Time to Die T-19 (8.03M)

0.417x of Eternals T-19 (3.97M)

0.119x of The Batman T-19 (2.56M)

0.501x of Top Gun 2 T-19 (9.65M)

0.347x of Jurassic World 3 T-19 (6.25M)