The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[misterpepp]

19 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I’m kind of looking forward to watching this, and I knew it would be Spirited as soon as it was announced. But, at some point, if they’re gonna keep doing mystery movies, they’re gonna have to show something other than Apple movies.

My guess would be that streamers would be the only ones on board to show a new release in advance at a significant discount since they don’t really care about theatrical earnings. Was talking to someone in touch with people at Regal, and he implied the general sentiment was that major theatrical studios wouldn’t be on board as it would be giving away or cheapening their product. My rebuttal to that would be that studios do free WoM-building advance screenings all the time, but I suppose even those are done on a lesser scale than how wide these mystery movie showings are.

[Joyous Legion]

Mystery (always the new apple movie) Movie

 

Not much of a mystery 🤣

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Black Panther 2	PLF	32	562	3,609	7,298	49.45%	$15.30	$55,222.16
		Standard	93	1,128	3,205	10,850	29.54%	$11.51	$36,886.29
	Total		125	1,690	6,814	18,148	37.55%	$13.52	$92,108.45
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2	25	86	317	27.13%	$23.82	$2,048.52
	Total		2	25	86	317	27.13%	$23.82	$2,048.52
T-4	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	67	1,350	4,104	13,617	30.14%	$15.22	$62,451.78
		Standard	84	1,009	2,178	10,984	19.83%	$10.97	$23,901.55
	Total		151	2,359	6,282	24,601	25.54%	$13.75	$86,353.33

*New sales since Wednesday

 

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Black Panther 2	N	95	1,418	5,943	13,669	43.48%	$13.92	$82,749.12
		Y	30	272	871	4,479	19.45%	$10.75	$9,359.33
	Total		125	1,690	6,814	18,148	37.55%	$13.52	$92,108.45
T-4	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	74	1,641	4,669	12,448	37.51%	$14.68	$68,550.50
		Y	77	718	1,613	12,153	13.27%	$11.04	$17,802.83
	Total		151	2,359	6,282	24,601	25.54%	$13.75	$86,353.33

*New sales since Wednesday

 

BP2 Thu T-3 comps

 - NWH - .398x (19.9m)

 - DS2 - .54x (19.46m)

 - Thor 4 - .9x (26.1m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.347x (29.09m)

 

BP2 Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .441x (31.72m)

 - DS2 - .642x (35.11m)

 - Thor 4 - Missed

 - Batman - 1.352x (47.33m)

 

A bit disappointing in Santikos so far.  Hoping things pick up in the next couple of days!  Friday is at 92.2% of Thursday; at the same point, NWH Friday was at 83.2% and DS2 was at 77.6%. Batman was nearly the same at 91.9% of Thursday at this point in time.

Yeah what's the deal with Santikos? That's some pretty bad numbers!

[filmnerdjamie]

2 hours ago, datpepper said:

Found out “Chili” was the codename used in production for Spirited, so up my original 99.9% certainty to 99.99999%

 

Went ahead and got a refund. Thanks for the heads-up.

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/4/2022 at 5:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1046

4265

24.53%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

731

2758

26.50%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5127	200	39051	13.13%	15	293

 

AMCs sold	2911
Cinemarks sold	996
Regals sold	551
Harkins sold	669

 

0.557x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (20.05M)

1.14x Batman T-6 (24.63M)

2.76x Eternals T-6 (26.23M)

 

The showing I mentioned yesterday was added back

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1195

4265

28.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

858

2758

31.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6228	1101	39106	15.93%	15	294

 

AMCs sold	3387
Cinemarks sold	1255
Regals sold	721
Harkins sold	865

 

 

0.864x Thor L&T T-3 (25.05M)

0.576x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (20.74M)

1.14x Batman T-3 (24.59M)

2.77x Eternals T-3 (26.27M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Killmonger said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	255	9963	44580	22.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 496

 

Comp

0.489x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-4 (24.45M)

1.437x of The Batman T-4 (31.05M)

0.742x of Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (26.73M)

1.289x of Thor 4 T-4 (37.39M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	265	10675	45888	23.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 712

 

Comp

0.498x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-3 (24.92M)

1.369x of The Batman T-3 (29.58M)

0.741x of Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (26.67M)

1.291x of Thor 4 T-3 (37.43M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/4/2022 at 5:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-6 Thursday(112 showings): 3532(+246)/32046

0.335x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (12.08M)

0.665x Batman T-6 (14.36M)

2.02x Eternals T-6 (19.17M)

 

T-7 Friday(169 showings): 2766(+205)/48520

0.417x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (22.83M)

0.994x Batman T-7 (34.77M)

1.98x Eternals T-7 (42.16M)

 

T-8 Saturday(176 showings): 1647(+161)/50950

0.416x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (24.03M)

1.10x Batman T-8 (47.50M)

2.25x Eternals T-8 (54.09M)

 

T-9 Sunday(139 showings): 384(+33)/41926

0.372x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (14.48M)

1.13x Batman T-9 (38.45M)

2.48x Eternals T-9 (40.46M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex [+3 days of sales]

 

T-3 Thursday(204 showings): 4647(+1115)/44942

0.603x Thor L&T T-3 (17.50M)

0.363x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (13.06M)

0.718x Batman T-3 (15.50M)

2.15x Eternals T-3 (20.42M)

 

T-4 Friday(312 showings): 4027(+1261)/71699

0.821x Thor L&T T-4 (33.29M)

0.454x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (24.83M)

0.958x Batman T-4 (33.53M)

2.25x Eternals T-4 (48.01M)

 

T-5 Saturday(319 showings): 2519(+872)/73714

0.879x Thor L&T T-5 (37.00M)

0.443x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (25.62M)

1.10x Batman T-5 (47.67M)

2.52x Eternals T-5 (60.76M)

 

T-6 Sunday(297 showings): 661(+277)/69732

0.653x Thor L&T T-6 (21.23M)

0.429x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (16.67M)

1.21x Batman T-6 (41.41M)

2.59x Eternals T-6 (42.33M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/4/2022 at 5:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-6 Thursday(275 showings): 16558(+718)/36764 ATP: $15.92

0.813x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (29.28M)

1.43x Batman T-6 (25.20M, Thurs only)

 

T-7 Friday(384 showings): 20388(+1893)/52915 ATP: $15.59

1.10x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (60.24M)

1.76x Batman T-7 (61.58M)

 

T-8 Saturday(387 showings): 17095(+890)/54038 ATP: $15.21

0.891x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (51.50M)

1.48x Batman T-8 (64.02M)

 

T-9 Sunday(361 showings): 10059(+551)/49930 ATP: $15.22

0.975x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (37.92M)

1.88x Batman T-9 (64.27M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

 

T-3 Thursday(348 showings): 19855(+3297)/43127 ATP: $15.82

1.12x Thor L&T T-3 (32.39M)

0.856x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (30.83M)

1.42x Batman T-3 (25.02M, Thurs only)

 

T-4 Friday(519 showings): 23627(+3239)/61805 ATP: $15.25

1.51x Thor L&T T-4 (61.08M)

1.07x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (58.40M)

1.55x Batman T-4 (54.23M)

 

T-5 Saturday(527 showings): 22475(+5380)/65757 ATP: $15.11

1.54x Thor L&T T-5 (64.85M)

0.955x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (55.19M)

1.38x Batman T-5 (59.89M)

 

T-6 Sunday(501 showings): 13221(+3162)/61071 ATP: $15.01

1.49x Thor L&T T-6 (48.57M)

0.966x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (37.56M)

1.59x Batman T-6 (54.19M)

[ZackM]

 

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	0	0	2	0
Seats Added	320	0	0	313	0
Seats Sold	905	291	226	235	234
11/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	215	795	13,386	127,116	10.53%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	1	4	13
ATP
$13.51

[filmlover]

Things I noticed while booking tickets for Black Panther on Saturday:

 

1. Bones and All is now on sale at a number of locations (it's being booked for one of the smallest auditoriums at all of the ones I've checked so far).

2. Devotion showtimes are starting appear and will be starting at 2:00 that Tuesday.

[ZackM]

On 11/6/2022 at 11:05 PM, ZackM said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	8	17	59	39	111
Seats Added	584	1,388	6,892	2,844	11,934
Seats Sold	14,436	10,642	10,457	8,960	9,058
11/6/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,841	265,511	1,199,102	22.14%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	46	227	547	967
ATP
$16.64
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
11/6/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	97	8,582	22,354	38.39%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	6	11	25	36
ATP
$17.54

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4	$27.7	$27.5	$23.5	$23.8
T-5	$27.3	$27.1	$23.4	$23.7
T-6	$27.0	$26.9	$23.1	$23.4
T-7	$26.9	$26.8	$22.8	$23.2
T-8	$26.8	$26.7	$22.7	$23.1
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	380	8	17	59	39
Seats Added	41,073	584	1,388	6,892	2,844
Seats Sold	22,067	14,436	10,642	10,457	8,960
11/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	8,221	287,578	1,240,175	23.19%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	56	258	628	1,119
ATP
$16.53
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
11/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	97	8,962	22,354	40.09%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	5	12	25	39
ATP
$17.56

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3	$28.4	$28.1	$23.8	$24.1
T-4	$27.7	$27.5	$23.5	$23.8
T-5	$27.3	$27.1	$23.4	$23.7
T-6	$27.0	$26.9	$23.1	$23.4
T-7	$26.9	$26.8	$22.8	$23.2
T-8	$26.8	$26.7	$22.7	$23.1
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

[ringedmortality]

Let me just quickly say, I thought Spirited was good. It was fun.

Edited November 8, 2022 by ringedmortality

[Verrows]

Is it just me or has everyone been a little quiet in terms of predictions and commentary on previews/OW guesses for BP: WF? Not complaining, just genuinely asking. It feels like for an opener of this size there is usually some numbers floating around by now. 

 

I can see tracking is oddly.... unremarkable for this. Are you guys thinking this will open lower than any of us would have imagined? Again, genuinely asking.

[Porthos]

On 11/7/2022 at 1:57 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	308	27930	38064	10134	26.62%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	104
Total Seats Sold Today	618

 

T-4 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	70.61		844	14353		0/353	28327/42680	33.63%		21117	47.99%		25.42m
L&T	106.02		590	9559		0/251	24142/33701	28.36%		16962	59.75%		30.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2515/12390  [20.30% sold]
Matinee:     551/4316  [12.77% | 5.44% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	355	30945	41993	11048	26.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today	47
Total Seats Added Today	3929
Total Seats Sold Today	914

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	71.79		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	52.32%		25.84m
L&T	109.29		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	65.13%		31.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2801/13034  [21.49% sold]
Matinee:      617/4875  [12.66% | 5.58% of all tickets sold]

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, Verrows said:

Is it just me or has everyone been a little quiet in terms of predictions and commentary on previews/OW guesses for BP: WF? Not complaining, just genuinely asking. It feels like for an opener of this size there is usually some numbers floating around by now. 

 

I can see tracking is oddly.... unremarkable for this. Are you guys thinking this will open lower than any of us would have imagined? Again, genuinely asking.

A lot of uncertainty that depends on today's RT scores and walk-ups. The first BP surprised us all with the weekend hold. Veterans Day also makes things less certain.

 

Seems most comps point to around $28 million for previews. However, there are a few hold-outs (Megaplex, Denver, and Santikos) that could pull it lower. I think after DSMoM and ThLT having higher preview numbers, expectations may be a bit tempered. Despite preview numbers being lower than ThorLT, it will have a higher OW. However, while it is expected to be lower than DSMoM, I don't think it will be an even ratio based on the preview number.

 

However, things REALLY need to shoot up this week.

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 minutes ago, jedijake said:

A lot of uncertainty that depends on today's RT scores and walk-ups. The first BP surprised us all with the weekend hold. Veterans Day also makes things less certain.

 

Seems most comps point to around $28 million for previews. However, there are a few hold-outs (Megaplex, Denver, and Santikos) that could pull it lower. I think after DSMoM and ThLT having higher preview numbers, expectations may be a bit tempered. Despite preview numbers being lower than ThorLT, it will have a higher OW. However, while it is expected to be lower than DSMoM, I don't think it will be an even ratio based on the preview number.

 

However, things REALLY need to shoot up this week.

OW expected to be lower than MoM by who? The way the weekend is selling I think it's going higher.

[Joyous Legion]

Yeah weekend is expected higher than DS2. Maybe not by much though.

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

OW expected to be lower than MoM by who? The way the weekend is selling I think it's going higher.

 

3 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Yeah weekend is expected higher than DS2. Maybe not by much though.

As of right now I’m thinking 30-52-62-47 for 191.

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

As of right now I’m thinking 30-52-62-47 for 191.

From 30 to 191, would look more like 30-59-58-44

[jedijake]

I  hope that BPWF beats the Lion King remake in domestic. That's my hope and goal.

 

@Menor RebornI was just going off of the tabloid projections and lower range of the BOP numbers (since the last two MCU movies came in under theirs).

Edited November 8, 2022 by jedijake