The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Krissykins]

22 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

It's some Christian TV show about Jesus. The first two episodes are being shown on the big screen because...I dunno, they were bored?

 

 

Ah thank you. Jesus Christ 😂

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Bones and All T-4: 16.95% Awareness, 5.05 Interest

Strange World T-9: 32.3%, 5.32

Violent Night T-18: 37.24%, 5.84

Empire of Light T-25: 11.33%, 4.7

The Whale T-39: 24.27%, 5.12

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-130: 48.77%, 6.54

 

She Said T-4: 19.78% Awareness, 4.74 Interest

*Note that She Said's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 4% chance of 10M

General Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 10% chance of 5M

Original - Low Interest: 20% chance of 5M

 

The Menu T-4: 24.42% Awareness, 5.18 Interest

*Note that The Menu's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 4% chance of 10M

General Interest: 44% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 10% chance of 5M

Original - Low Interest: 64% chance of 5M, 36% chance of 10M

 

Avatar: The Way of Water T-32: 66.38% Awareness, 6.68 Interest

T-30 General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[misterpepp]

(Edited for correction)

Edited November 17, 2022 by datpepper
Tickets went on sale earlier than this date

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Those Chosen sales......Jesus Christ!

Jesus fandom is gonna be very presales heavy

[Eric is Quiet]

46 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Jesus fandom is gonna be very presales heavy

The original influencer tbh

[Inceptionzq]

The Chosen Megaplex

 

T-4 Friday(78 showings): 3862/13261

0.959x Black Panther WK T-4 (53.98M)

 

T-5 Saturday(79 showings): 2983/13753

1.18x Black Panther WK T-5 (66.23M)

 

T-6 Sunday(62 showings): 445/10762

0.673x Black Panther WK T-6 (27.55M)

 

Utah's White Panther

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Chosen Megaplex

 

T-4 Friday(78 showings): 3862/13261

0.959x Black Panther WK T-4 (53.98M)

 

T-5 Saturday(79 showings): 2983/13753

1.18x Black Panther WK T-5 (66.23M)

 

T-6 Sunday(62 showings): 445/10762

0.673x Black Panther WK T-6 (27.55M)

 

Utah's White Panther

Martin Freeman feeling like those strong boys.

Edited November 15, 2022 by charlie Jatinder
HoTD reference

[Cmasterclay]

Who appears in the mid-credits scene for The Chosen? God?

[Eric is Quiet]

She Said Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	26	2511	1.04%

 

Comp

0.176x of Dear Evan Hansen T-3 (140K)

0.867x of The Last Duel T-3 (303K)

0.183x of West Side Story T-3 (146K)

0.176x of Death on the Nile T-3 (193K)

0.133x of Dog T-3 (168K)

0.134x of Crawdads T-3 (308K)

0.684x of Bros T-3 (342K)

0.144x of Amsterdam T-3 (79K)

[misterpepp]

Would not be surprised if Chosen S3 Begins opens higher than at least one of the new studio openers this weekend. The Menu is probably too high to reach, but if She Said goes low like a lot of these heavy awards-bait dramas have (say $4-6m), that gives Chosen a solid chance at pulling in higher. Xmas with Chosen did $4.2m OW but opened mid-week, it was at a $9.1m total after the first weekend.

[Eric is Quiet]

The Menu Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	183	3688	4.96%

 

Comp

1.355x of Old T-3 (2.03M)

6.536x of The Night House T-3 (1.7M)

3.210x of Antlers T-3 (1.19M)

2.473x of X T-3 (1.09M)

4.463x of Firestarter T-3 (1.67M)

2.905x of Men T-3 (1.23M)

3.268x of The Invitation T-3 (2.53M)

2.205x of Barbarian T-3 (1.87M)

3.812x of Prey for the Devil T-3 (2.52M)

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

Would not be surprised if Chosen S3 Begins opens higher than at least one of the new studio openers this weekend. The Menu is probably too high to reach, but if She Said goes low like a lot of these heavy awards-bait dramas have (say $4-6m), that gives Chosen a solid chance at pulling in higher. Xmas with Chosen did $4.2m OW but opened mid-week, it was at a $9.1m total after the first weekend.

I’ll be surprised if She Said opens to more than $5M at this point tbh. I’m going to see it (and The Menu) over the weekend, but I’ve barely seen any advertising for it. After an excellent summer, Universal is having a rather rough fourth quarter with the exception of Ticket to Paradise.

 

On a similar note, it’s confirmed that The Fabelmans will indeed be on PVOD by middle of December (not a death sentence for box office legs as we’ve seen).

 

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/steven-spielberg-the-fabelmans-box-office-1235431888/

[Grebacio]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

 

On a similar note, it’s confirmed that The Fabelmans will indeed be on PVOD by middle of December (not a death sentence for box office legs as we’ve seen).

 

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/steven-spielberg-the-fabelmans-box-office-1235431888/

Can't believe how desperates studios are into rushing their films to streaming platforms

[snarkmachine]

How’s Bones and All tracking?

[CJohn]

She Said is gonna open with like 3M. Nobody is gonna pay to see that.

 

The Menu in a different release date with a different studio would open with 15M. As it stands, it will be lucky to open with 7M.

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, snarkmachine said:

How’s Bones and All tracking?

It’s being placed among the smallest auditoriums everywhere for Thanksgiving weekend and has barely sold anything near me so far. It’s gonna flop something ugly.

[filmlover]

Tickets for both Strange World and Puss in Boots are live now.

[M37]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

She Said is gonna open with like 3M. Nobody is gonna pay to see that.

I mean, Bombshell grossed $31M in 2019, despite never expanding beyond 1700 locations. She Said is on track to maybe pull in a third of that?

 

The entire rest of the year looks awfully bleak. I know its been discussed how the specialty/drama market has been struggling, but now it seems like the industry has kinda given up? Tar has basically come and gone, Armageddon barely made noise. Till goes wide on Halloween weekend, then loses 60% of show vs BPWF and will barely be around through Thanksgiving weekend. Bones and All looks to have a forgettable TG debut, expansions in December may not do much. Fabelmans has potential, but going PVOD before Christmas doesn't suggest confidence in a long run. Banshees is doing fine, but Oct Searchlight release French Dispatch maxed out at 1200 locations last year, so this may be the peak. Have to see how The Whale does, but that one seems to be a tough sell IMO. And it's not like there's a packed release calendar competing for screens, yet these titles are just being pushed aside quickly

 

On the wide release front, Menu, Devotion, and Violent Night have limited potential, Disney has given up on Strange World, and their Avatar push thusfar has been ... curious. The film with the most buzz is Glass Onion, which is only a 1 week engagement. I think Puss in Boots has real surprise potential ($200M+), but my lower expectations for Avatar 2 are documented, and if it does come in at the ~$600M range, there just isn't much else to push up the December numbers.

 

tl;dr - YUCK

(/end of rant)

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

I mean, Bombshell grossed $31M in 2019, despite never expanding beyond 1700 locations. She Said is on track to maybe pull in a third of that?

 

The entire rest of the year looks awfully bleak. I know its been discussed how the specialty/drama market has been struggling, but now it seems like the industry has kinda given up? Tar has basically come and gone, Armageddon barely made noise. Till goes wide on Halloween weekend, then loses 60% of show vs BPWF and will barely be around through Thanksgiving weekend. Bones and All looks to have a forgettable TG debut, expansions in December may not do much. Fabelmans has potential, but going PVOD before Christmas doesn't suggest confidence in a long run. Banshees is doing fine, but Oct Searchlight release French Dispatch maxed out at 1200 locations last year, so this may be the peak. Have to see how The Whale does, but that one seems to be a tough sell IMO. And it's not like there's a packed release calendar competing for screens, yet these titles are just being pushed aside quickly

 

On the wide release front, Menu, Devotion, and Violent Night have limited potential, Disney has given up on Strange World, and their Avatar push thusfar has been ... curious. The film with the most buzz is Glass Onion, which is only a 1 week engagement. I think Puss in Boots has real surprise potential ($200M+), but my lower expectations for Avatar 2 are documented, and if it does come in at the ~$600M range, there just isn't much else to push up the December numbers.

 

tl;dr - YUCK

(/end of rant)

The theaters I’ve checked for Puss in Boots are giving it the same amount of theater space as Sing 2 last year (some theaters are even relegating it to smaller auditoriums after 7), so I’m guessing tracking/interest among non-family audiences isn’t looking too great. Avatar 2 better deliver because this Christmas is clearly depending on it.

[M37]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The theaters I’ve checked for Puss in Boots are giving it the same amount of theater space as Sing 2 last year (some theaters are even relegating it to smaller auditoriums after 7), so I’m guessing tracking/interest among non-family audiences isn’t looking too great. Avatar 2 better deliver because this Christmas is clearly depending on it.

It might just be a function of Avatar 2 being penciled into the PLF, 3D and other large auditoriums for the entire 3 week holiday period, unlike NWH, which didn't go on sale until a month later (and with more releases behind it competing for screen space). But I also wouldn't be surprised if Puss was currently tracking below Sing; just think its going to outrun those expectations, as Sonic and Minions did this year (for similar reasons)