The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Avatar 2 $67M-$80M

Puss in Boots 2 $25M-$30M

 

Are these projections 3-day or 5-day? Puss in boots seems a bit bullish

 

I think its 4 day. Deadline is a lot more. Average them out and that might be more likely.  Sing2 did 22m 3 day and went onto to 160M plus from memory. So a 15 to 20m for Puss would still be ok and allow it to do well over 100M.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Ronin46

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Avatar 2 $67M-$80M

Puss in Boots 2 $25M-$30M

 

Are these projections 3-day or 5-day? Puss in boots seems a bit bullish

 4 day, Fri-Mon

[Alex SciChannel]

5 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Avatar 2 $67M-$80M

Puss in Boots 2 $25M-$30M

 

Are these projections 3-day or 5-day? Puss in boots seems a bit bullish

Actually, probably 4-day weekend including the Monday after Christmas day which is the extended weekend. 

[Alex SciChannel]

39 minutes ago, el sid said:

Looks solid, 20M+ 3-day would be my guess at the moment.

Gives me hope

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, wboxoffice said:

1 . Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $79.4 million

 

You can disregard his predictions based on this alone. 

[wboxoffice]

Another prediction for Christmas Weekend:
 

https://www.goldderby.com/article/2022/box-office-preview-avatar-the-way-of-water-christmas/

[Alex SciChannel]

Has there ever been a 7-day *weekend in Box Office history? Disney had an opportunity for 7-day opening for Indiana Jones 5 by releasing it on Wednesday and finishing on 4th of July Tuesday. But instead went for the boring Friday release preventing any parody headlines.

 

I suppose Spider-man: Far From Home was the closest we got. And Top Gun Maverick with Early Access screenings. 

[wboxoffice]

9 minutes ago, XXR 4x OW or Bust said:

 

You can disregard his predictions based on this alone. 

 

There was a lot of talk about the weather being bad on opening weekend so who knows maybe a lot of people didn't see it yet...

 

Also I know that I wouldn't watch Avatar 2 in a sold-out crowd with the new context of respiratory viruses so maybe many people (like me) would watch it in subsequent weeks when crowds are little smaller...

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by wboxoffice

[Verrows]

6 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

 

There was a lot of talk about the weather being bad on opening weekend so who knows maybe a lot of people didn't see it yet...

 

Also I know that I wouldn't watch Avatar 2 in a sold-out crowd with the new context of respiratory viruses so maybe many people (like me) would watch it in subsequent weeks when crowds are little smaller...

 

Maybe, but I feel like this would be a very small minority of people. Most people aren't too concerned and after a long, depressing pandemic are just happy to get back to typical behaviour and attitude towards getting sick (that it's something that happens/part of life etc.).

 

It's definitely a factor though. 

[Alex SciChannel]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/christmas-weekend-box-office-forecast-how-might-avatar-the-way-of-water-hold-up-as-puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-babylon-and-i-wanna-dance-with-somebody-debut/

 

Final Forecast Ranges

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
3-Day Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $14 million — $19 million
5-Day Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $21 million — $30 million
Domestic Total Range: $109 million — $174 million

Babylon
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $4.5 million — $8 million
Domestic Total Range: $18 million — $35 million

I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $7 million — $12 million
Domestic Total Range: $40 million — $70 million

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 25	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Tue)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Avatar: The Way of Water	Disney & 20th Century Studios	$61,300,000	$259,400,000	~4,202	-54%
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation	$16,600,000	$25,600,000	4,093	NEW
I Wanna Dance with Somebody	Sony / Columbia Pictures	$9,600,000	$9,600,000	3,300	NEW
Babylon	Paramount Pictures	$6,700,000	$6,700,000	3,342	NEW
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Disney & Marvel Studios	$3,200,000	$425,800,000	3,200 (Wed) ~2,800 (Fri)	-40%
Violent Night	Universal Pictures	$3,100,000	$41,500,000	2,556	-39%
The Whale	A24	$1,800,000	$3,300,000	~600	+960%
Strange World	Walt Disney Pictures	$1,200,000	$36,600,000	2,525 (Wed) / ~2,300 (Fri)	-46%
The Menu	Disney / Searchlight Pictures	$700,000	$33,700,000	1,825 (Wed) / ~1,100 (Fri)	-57%
The Fabelmans	Universal Pictures	$400,000	$9,700,000	1,118	-46%

Edited December 20, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Eric is Anxious]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

Speaking of things and time, will you and @WrathOfHan still doing 2023 box office predictions?

I can neither confirm nor deny that this is happening.

[ZeeSoh]

3 hours ago, wboxoffice said:

Another prediction for next weekend that I found here:

 

https://toddmthatcher.com/category/box-office-predictionsresults/

 

For the 3-day weekend:
 

1 . Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $79.4 million

2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $37.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Predicted Gross: $14 million

4. Babylon

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

5. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Been following his predictions for a few months now. He tends to over predict frequently. If you wish to get more accurate predictions I would suggest stick to BoxofficePro and BoxofficeReport. I have actually compared predictions between these sites (as well as JoBlo and others) and the 2 I mentioned are almost always the most accurate out of all of them. 

[wboxoffice]

Apparently a huge winter storm will come over a big part of the USA and Canada in the upcoming days and weekend and this could hurt the box office. 😒

[poweranimals]

6 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Actually, probably 4-day weekend including the Monday after Christmas day which is the extended weekend. 

Why include Monday when it's not a holiday?

[DC Rich]

1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

Why include Monday when it's not a holiday?

 

Christmas is Sunday therefore Monday is the national holiday. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

Why include Monday when it's not a holiday?

It is a holiday for Federal government employees & banks. A lot of private companies will follow this as well. So you end up with a huge chunk of population available for moviegoing. 

[wboxoffice]

Box Office to be down by at least 25%?

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-storm-watches-issued-across-central-us-as-millions-brace-for-blizzard-conditions/1387482

 

 

[Eric is Anxious]

On 12/20/2022 at 12:32 AM, Eric in Boots said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	615	16775	3.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 29

 

Comp

2.651x of Encanto T-2 (3.98M)

0.234x of Sing 2 (2.28M)

0.347x of Sonic 2 T-2 (2.17M)

0.770x of Lightyear T-2 (4M)

0.636x of Minions 2 T-2 (6.84M)

3.534x of Super Pets T-2 (7.78M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	121	707	17996	3.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 92

 

Comp

2.288x of Encanto (3.43M)

0.231x of Sing 2 (2.25M)

0.292x of Sonic 2 (1.82M)

0.643x of Lightyear (3.34M)

0.466x of Minions 2 (5.01M)

2.472x of Super Pets (5.44M)

[Eric is Anxious]

On 12/20/2022 at 12:44 AM, Eric in Boots said:

Babylon Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	28	134	3134	4.28%

 

Comp

0.086x of No Time to Die T-3 (541K)

4.467x of The Last Duel T-3 (1.56M)

0.663x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (464K)

3.722x of The 355 T-3 (1.3M)

0.905x of Death on the Nile T-3 (996K)

1.489x of Ambulance T-3 (1.04M)

0.413x of The Northman T-3 (558K)

0.694x of Unbearable Weight T-3 (580K)

0.203x of Bullet Train T-3 (934K)

0.118x of Don't Worry Darling T-3 (366K)

0.744x of Amsterdam T-3 (409K)

Babylon Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	162	4621	3.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp

3.767x of The Last Duel T-2 (1.32M)

0.661x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (463K)

2.893x of The 355 T-2 (1.01M)

0.905x of Death on the Nile T-2 (995K)

1.514x of Ambulance T-2 (1.06M)

0.438x of The Northman T-2 (591K)

0.689x of Unbearable Weight T-2 (576K)

0.168x of Bullet Train T-2 (773K)

0.129x of Don't Worry Darling T-2 (401K)

0.826x of Amsterdam T-2 (454K)

[Eric is Anxious]

On 12/20/2022 at 12:54 AM, Eric in Boots said:

I Wanna Dance with Somebody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	218	7119	3.06%

 

Comp

7.517x of Respect T-3 (4.89M)

0.924x of Candyman T-3 (1.75M)

0.231x of Nope T-3 (1.48M)

2.018x of Beast T-3 (1.87M)

0.717x of The Woman King T-3 (1.22M)

I Wanna Dance with Somebody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	243	8543	2.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp

2.250x of Respect T-2 (1.46M)

0.633x of Candyman T-2 (1.2M)

0.194x of Nope T-2 (1.24M)
1.687x of Beast T-2 (1.56M)

0.581x of The Woman King T-2 (988K)