The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[cooldude97]

An opening of a solo MCU movie with the Legs of an A+ cinema score animated film would be the absolute best-case scenario for Mario IMO (if it gets an A+ CS)

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

My run this morning for comparison was:

 

Near Shazam 2 at T-12 (437 to 427)

Near Sonic 2 at T-14 (437 to 427)

Near Minions 2 at T-7 (437 to 445)

Near Lightyear at T-7 (437 to 418)

Near Black Adam at T-17 (437 to 467)

 

(My post had 403 but that was before including a few midnight shows I had missed)

My run

more than Shazam 2 at T-8 (690 to 597)

Near Sonic 2 at T-14 (437 to 427)

Near Minions 2 at T-10 (690 to 688)

less than Lightyear at T-8 (690 to 747)

Near Black Adam at T-18 (690 to 679)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/9/2023 at 9:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-8

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	176	3139	5.6%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
8	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-8

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	18	1780	1.0%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	0

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS CHAINS IN THE GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-8

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
22	184	3815	4.8%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
17	0

 

This is going completely opposite of what should be happening. It should be picking up steam, not slowing down. Let's see how things go once review embargo lifts on Wednesday.

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-7

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	197	3139	6.3%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
21	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-7

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	20	1780	1.1%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
2	0

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS CHAINS IN THE GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-7

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
22	187	3815	4.9%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
3	0

[Eric is Quiet]

20 hours ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	373	17155	2.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 18

 

Comp - T-7

0.899x of The Suicide Squad (3.68M)

0.242x of Shang-Chi (2.13M)

0.178x of Eternals (1.69M)

0.520x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.34M)

0.418x of Morbius (2.38M)

0.465x of Sonic 2 (2.91M)

0.419x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.51M)

0.167x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3M)

0.361x of Black Adam (2.75M)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	393	17155	2.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Comp - T-6

0.852x of The Suicide Squad (3.49M)

0.235x of Shang-Chi (2.07M)

0.180x of Eternals (1.71M)

0.518x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.33M)
0.411x of Morbius (2.34M)

0.422x of Sonic 2 (2.64M)
0.406x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.44M)

0.171x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.07M)

0.350x of Black Adam (2.66M)

[Eric is Quiet]

20 hours ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	709	13153	5.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

 

Comp - T-14

2.696x of The Suicide Squad (11.05M)

1.120x of Venom 2 (12.99M)

1.255x of No Time to Die (7.91M)

1.111x of Dune (5.67M)

2.906x of Uncharted (10.75M)

1.611x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (9.67M)

0.534x of Top Gun 2 (10.28M)

0.423x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.61M)

0.383x of Avatar 2 (6.51M)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	754	13153	5.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp - T-13

2.741x of The Suicide Squad (11.24M)

1.117x of Venom 2 (12.96M)

1.289x of No Time to Die (8.12M)

1.119x of Dune (5.7M)

2.824x of Uncharted (10.45M)

1.523x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (9.14M)

0.523x of Top Gun 2 (10.08M)

0.431x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.76M)

4.626x of Bullet Train (21.28M)

0.386x of Avatar 2 (6.56M)

[Eric is Quiet]

20 hours ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	363	30968	1.17%

 

Comp - T-27

0.367x of Sing 2 (3.57M)

 

Little early to get Sonic or Minions onto here, and Sing is a little wonky because of its Early Access shows. Still, it does feel like OD is pretty soft, which is kind of understandable? This feels like a Shrek 2 situation where there's not a lot of people going day 1, but will be there when Friday hits. Or maybe I'm talking out of my ass? Who knows? I tracked six movies today! I'm going to sleep soon!

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	723	31960	2.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 360

 

Comp - T-26

0.585x of Sing 2 (5.7M)

 

Okay...this is what I was looking for. We golden now.

[Porthos]

On 3/10/2023 at 12:29 AM, Porthos said:

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	88	12191	13342	1151	8.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

64

 

T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	28.38		259	4055		0/259	31878/35933	11.28%		11474	10.03%		5.47m
JWD	44.35		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		4456	25.83%		7.98m
BA	126.21		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	25.61%		9.59m
A2	41.12		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	12.81%		6.99m
Scream 6	175.46		36	656		0/70	7662/8318	7.89%		3134	36.73%		????

 

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     247/3784  [6.53% sold]
Matinee:    45/1253  [3.59% | 3.91% of all tickets sold]

 

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	89	12253	13484	1231	9.13%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	142
Total Seats Sold Today	80

 

T-13 Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	28.52		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	10.73%		5.49m
JWD	45.47		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		4456	27.63%		8.19m
BA	126.26		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	27.39%		9.60m
A2	41.77		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	13.70%		7.10m
Scream 6	174.86		48	704		0/78	9156/9860	7.14%		3134	39.28%		9.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     262/3784  [6.92% sold]
Matinee:    44/1253  [3.51% | 3.57% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
John Wick 4	T-13	Jax	6	42	15	241	7,238	3.33%
		Phx	6	28	27	284	5,746	4.94%
		Ral	8	37	32	270	5,199	5.19%
	Total		20	107	74	795	18,183	4.37%
Shazam 2	T-6	Jax	5	57	10	164	9,846	1.67%
		Phx	6	29	11	172	6,134	2.80%
		Ral	8	54	1	182	7,817	2.33%
	Total		19	140	22	518	23,797	2.18%
Super Mario	T-26	Jax	5	113	105	105	17,638	0.60%
		Phx	6	48	127	127	8,167	1.56%
		Ral	8	97	171	171	13,569	1.26%
	Total		19	258	403	403	39,374	1.02%

 

Shazam 2 T-6 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .858x (4.27m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .396x (2.38m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .497x (3.53m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .399x (3.51m)

 - Venom 2 - .54x (6.26m)

 - Black Adam - .432x (3.29m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.22x (5m)

 

John Wick 4 T-13 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 2.98x (12.21m)

 - F9 - 1.242x (8.82m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.94x (10.08m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .428x (6.29m)

 - Jurassic 3 - .374x (6.62m)

 

Super Mario T-26 comps

 - DBZ - 1.975x (8.5m)

 - Black Widow - .53x (6.99m)

 - Scream VI - 1.308x (7.56m)

 

(Just as a starting point, not bad!)

 

Super Mario (17hrs) Day 1 comps

 - Eternals (24hrs) - .528x (5.02m)

 - Black Widow (24hrs) - .75x (9.91m)

 - F9 (24hrs) - 1.482x (10.52m)

 - Shang-Chi - .695x (6.12m)

 - JW3 (23hrs) - .405x (7.3m)

 - Black Adam (23hrs) - 1.313x (9.98m)

 - Shazam 2 (22hrs) - 2.96x

 - Sonic 2 (24hrs) - 2.167x (13.54m)

 

18 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
D&D (3-26 EA)	T-16	Jax	4	4	0	0	450	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
		Ral	2	2	0	0	387	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	0	960	0.00%
D&D (3-29 EA)	T-19	Jax	5	5	0	0	1,456	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	410	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	261	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	0	2,127	0.00%
D&D	T-20	Jax	5	43	24	24	6,624	0.36%
		Phx	6	24	20	20	4,821	0.41%
		Ral	7	28	14	14	4,346	0.32%
	Total		18	95	58	58	15,791	0.37%

 

Not sure when these went on sale, but since I noticed I went ahead and added them to the sheet.  No EA sales yet - looked like most tickets sold are for PLF so far (no surprise).

 

D&D T-20 comps

 - F9 - .171x (1.21m)

 - Sonic 2 - .264x (1.31m)

 - Shazam 2 - .195x

 

(quickly does math to find that Shazam 2 will make 6.46m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
D&D	T-19	Jax	5	43	5	29	6,624	0.44%
		Phx	6	24	0	20	4,821	0.41%
		Ral	7	28	11	25	4,346	0.58%
	Total		18	95	16	74	15,791	0.47%
D&D (3-26 EA)	T-15	Jax	4	4	0	0	450	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
		Ral	2	2	0	0	387	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	0	960	0.00%
D&D (3-29 EA)	T-18	Jax	5	5	0	0	1,456	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	410	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	261	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	0	2,127	0.00%
John Wick 4	T-12	Jax	6	42	31	272	7,238	3.76%
		Phx	6	28	33	317	5,746	5.52%
		Ral	8	37	9	279	5,199	5.37%
	Total		20	107	73	868	18,183	4.77%
Shazam 2	T-5	Jax	5	56	14	178	9,457	1.88%
		Phx	6	29	15	187	6,134	3.05%
		Ral	8	54	1	183	7,817	2.34%
	Total		19	139	30	548	23,408	2.34%
Super Mario	T-25	Jax	6	119	45	184	18,328	1.00%
		Phx	6	48	105	232	8,167	2.84%
		Ral	8	100	146	317	13,912	2.28%
	Total		19	267	296	733	40,407	1.81%

 

Shazam 2 T-5 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .814x (4.06m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .481x (3.41m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .381x (3.35m)

 - Venom 2 - missed

 - Black Adam - .426x (3.24m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.16x (4.75m)

 - Free Guy - 2.3x (5.07m)

 - Creed III (Total) - .97x (5.29m)

 - Snake Eyes - 5.07x (7.1m)

 

Gonna keep throwing comps at it because it certainly isn't performing like a CBM

 

John Wick 4 T-12 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 3.1x (12.71m)

 - F9 - 1.235x (8.77m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - .443x (6.52m)

 - Jurassic 3 - .392x (6.93m)

 - Scream VI - 1.29x (7.35m)

 

 

D&D T-19 comps

 - F9 - .2x (1.42m)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Shazam 2 - .246x

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.423x (2.06m)

 

Super Mario T-25 comps

 - DBZ - 2.725x (11.73m)

 - Black Widow - .83x (10.92m)

 - Thor 4 - .51x (14.79m)

 - JW3 - .515x (9.12m)

 

(Just as a starting point, not bad!)

 

Super Mario (~39hrs) Day 2 comps

 - Eternals - .455x (4.32m)

 - Black Widow  - .53x (6.99m)

 - F9  - 1.18x (8.42m)

 - Shang-Chi - .634x (5.58m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.775x (11.1m)

[M37]

Just want to take a moment to note, given the natural inclination to gravitate towards that comp, that Minions had the highest growth rate in sales the final week of any film tracked (post-pandemic). More than any notorious late selling horror film, over 60% higher than even WTF just happened Venom!

 

With that said, Sonic 2 is also among the higher end outlier group, and it is reasonable to presume animated/family movies are just natural late bloomers, as families are less inclined to plan out that far ahead. But if Mario is going to be huge as some expect, it's likely going to get there with an added bump from adult fans .... which are driving these early sales.

 

Throw in the major wrench of this being an OD rather than Thursday preview, and a mid-week opening where some schools are off but others are not, plus the Good Friday & Easter effects when looking at the 5-day weekend, and ... yeah

 

tl;dr - good luck finding any kind of precision in tracking, other than its good but we don't really know how good

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

good luck finding any kind of precision in tracking, other than its good but we don't really know how good

Is that a challenge. 😌

[keysersoze123]

On 3/9/2023 at 9:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1 Wednesday - 16588/694022 293093.00 3410 shows

 

I take my earlier comment back. Its definitely not bad at all. I guess the trailer release did amp up the sales. I dont have MTC2 data as well but release is already uber wide (4894 shows) 

Mario Wednesday

MTC1 - 31124/715423 540233.28 3524 shows

MTC2 - 18202/780758 221907.66 4890 shows

 

MTC2 was as of yesterday evening(its takes for ever to get data). MTC1 i just got the data. Still awesome growth at MTC1 and bigger than any non MCU movie for a while. Only big blockbuster openers like JWD or TGM were bigger last year. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario Wednesday

MTC1 - 31124/715423 540233.28 3524 shows

MTC2 - 18202/780758 221907.66 4890 shows

 

MTC2 was as of yesterday evening(its takes for ever to get data). MTC1 i just got the data. Still awesome growth at MTC1 and bigger than any non MCU movie for a while. Only big blockbuster openers like JWD or TGM were bigger last year. 

Wow, that's a crazy start. 15+ OD looks probable to me. Btw I think Friday may also be worth a look, quite good sales there from what I have seen.

[M37]

41 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is that a challenge. 😌

If you want to it be? If anyone can nail down Mario OD (+/- like 5%) a week from release like the process in here can with previews, I’ll be impressed 

[keysersoze123]

I am thinking ~125m over 5 days and around 350-400m domestic at this point with Good reviews/reception. Plus this should play well overseas. I think we have our potential 1B WW grosser. 

[TwoMisfits]

28 minutes ago, M37 said:

If you want to it be? If anyone can nail down Mario OD (+/- like 5%) a week from release like the process in here can with previews, I’ll be impressed 

 

I mean, can my gut take that challenge?  At least for directional correctness?

 

If it can, expect a high number:).

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Need to see couple of more days data but I feel OD can be much higher than any of comps I have seen here.

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Need to see couple of more days data but I feel OD can be much higher than any of comps I have seen here.

 

 

See, Charlie's even joining my gut brigade already:)...

[GOGODanca]

$150m 5 day OW

[kayumanggi]

I was laughed at when I said THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE would be the biggest movie of the year. I could still be very wrong, but that movie is a strong contender.

[cookie]

50 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

$150m 5 day OW

$150m 3-day OW 👀