The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

 

MTC1 Wed - 3838/17472 177840.00 58 shows

MTC1 previews(T-18) - 96604/1146549 1724931.56 7005 shows +1499

MTC2 previews - 55615/590055 796403.12 3753 shows 

 

We have our 1st good day for Guardians at least at MTC1. Let us hope this continues. 

 

Unfortunately the data was initially not correct. Some other data creeped in. debugging something else I found out this. So we can continue to panic over Guardians meh presales. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by keysersoze123

[ThomasNicole]

Guardians reviews will be out on April 28th, a full week before release 

 

Considering all the recent MCU movies dropped reviews only 48 hours before previews, i think that´s a win, maybe they did see how the presales was going afterall

 

With good reviews out, a full week can be enough to create some late hype for it and help the OW

[scytheavatar]

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Guardians reviews will be out on April 28th, a full week before release 

 

Considering all the recent MCU movies dropped reviews only 48 hours before previews, i think that´s a win, maybe they did see how the presales was going afterall

 

With good reviews out, a full week can be enough to create some late hype for it and help the OW

 

Remember that Eternals had its review embargo lifted early and look at how it turned out............

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, scytheavatar said:

 

Remember that Eternals had its review embargo lifted early and look at how it turned out............

And? I don´t see any corelation between those 2 movies other than both being from Marvel tbh

[poweranimals]

37 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Guardians reviews will be out on April 28th, a full week before release 

 

Considering all the recent MCU movies dropped reviews only 48 hours before previews, i think that´s a win, maybe they did see how the presales was going afterall

 

With good reviews out, a full week can be enough to create some late hype for it and help the OW

The actual reviews or the social media reviews?

[scytheavatar]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

And? I don´t see any corelation between those 2 movies other than both being from Marvel tbh

 

That early review embargo has no correlation with "good reviews" either.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, poweranimals said:

The actual reviews or the social media reviews?

Actual reviews, social media will be out on April 27 at night and the actual reviews a few hours later on April 28

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, scytheavatar said:

 

That early review embargo has no correlation with "good reviews" either.

For MCU it usually does, Eternals is the only movie they ever put reviews out early and didn´t pay off

 

Anyway, this is not the thread for this, i just posted an information for trackers since this can affect presales directly, let´s move on  

[el sid]

Evil Dead Rise, counted today for Thursday:

 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 84 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 96 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 22 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 20 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 19 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 133 (2 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 174 (2 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 548. 

 

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Prey for the Devil (660k from previews) had 114 sold tickets,
Smile (2M) had 213,
M3gan (2.75M) had 274,
Barbarian (850k) had 156
and The Invitation (775k) had 96 sold tickets.

 

Evil Dead Rise, counted today for Friday:

 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 116 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 34 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 18 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 117 (2 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 139 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 455. 
 

Comps (counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Old had 150 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil had 149 sold tickets,
Smile had 229,
M3gan had 247,
Barbarian had 70
and The Invitation had 87 sold tickets.
 

Good presales so far (20M+) but the comparison films had pretty good jumps over the next few days. I hope EDR can keep the pace.

[ThomasNicole]

48 minutes ago, el sid said:

Evil Dead Rise, counted today for Thursday:

 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 84 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 96 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 22 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 20 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 19 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 133 (2 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 174 (2 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 548. 

 

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Prey for the Devil (660k from previews) had 114 sold tickets,
Smile (2M) had 213,
M3gan (2.75M) had 274,
Barbarian (850k) had 156
and The Invitation (775k) had 96 sold tickets.

 

Evil Dead Rise, counted today for Friday:

 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 116 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 34 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 18 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 117 (2 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 139 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 455. 
 

Comps (counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Old had 150 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil had 149 sold tickets,
Smile had 229,
M3gan had 247,
Barbarian had 70
and The Invitation had 87 sold tickets.
 

Good presales so far (20M+) but the comparison films had pretty good jumps over the next few days. I hope EDR can keep the pace.

Really hoping Evil Dead can overperform to at least 20M, movie is getting stellar reviews for this type of movie, fans catching early screenings are very happy wirh it, it would be sad seeing a flop just because WB keeps doing shitty marketing campaigns 

[keysersoze123]

Bad news is my presales count above had an issue. When I fixed it numbers for Guardians previews did go down. So we can continue to doom Guardians for now. Hopefully the tide reverses soon. 

 

I also hope @ZackM will start posting Guardians numbers as well. his comps and tables are wonderful. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/12/2023 at 5:50 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
207	4657	31332	14.9%

*Numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD IN MONDAY

154

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE MONDAY

0

 

Roughly 2 days of sales 

 

Yikes...It has sold 154 tickets in the past 2 days. It isn't even pacing with John Wick anymore. 

 

I thought it would rebound because we are post-Mario frenzy, but looks like things are still slow

 

I agree with the general consensus in here: Marvel should lift the embargo earlier to gain some traction 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
207	4983	31332	15.9%

*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-22

326

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-22

0

 

Roughly 5 days of sales

 

Still pacing more like John Wick than a MCU title 

 

These arent great comps but they seem to point to the same range other trackers have seen, so here they are:

 

Mario Wednesday: (0.401x) ~$13M THUR

John Wick Thursday: (1.385x) ~$12M THUR

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/16/2023 at 3:09 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	543	2471	21.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

 

*0 New Showings Added Today 

*13 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

Renfield T-4 (1.853x) ~$1.67M THUR 

The Pope's Exorcist T-0 (2.056x) ~$1.75M THUR 

 

Upping my prediction to $1.5M-$2M THUR

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
23	641	3161	20.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

*6 New Showings Added Today 

*98 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (2.428x) ~$2.4M THUR 

 

Good news for Evil Dead, showing count is finally ticking upwards...Still behind Pope's Exorcist and Renfield

 

prediction right now: $2.5M THUR

 

Going to agree with @el sid and say it has a solid chance at $20M

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

14 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
23	641	3161	20.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

*6 New Showings Added Today 

*98 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (2.428x) ~$2.4M THUR 

 

Good news for Evil Dead, showing count is finally ticking upwards...Still behind Pope's Exorcist and Renfield

 

prediction right now: $2.5M THUR

 

Going to agree with @el sid and say it has a solid chance at $20M

Glad to see this for Evil Dead. Might be WB’s first hit since Elvis (nearly a year damn).

[kayumanggi]

How is EVIL DEAD RISE doing? BoxOfficePro has revised their prediction significantly downwards.

[kayumanggi]

EVIL DEAD RISE

11M - 16M opening weekend

22M - 36M total

Edited April 17, 2023 by kayumanggi

[CJohn]

Still in the Evil Dead Rise over 20M OW train. Theaters need more hits than just one giant movie and everything else doing under 10M.

[Eric Onion]

Quorum Updates

Beau is Afraid T-4: 15.07%, 4.79

Asteroid City T-67: 11.95%, 4.79

Talk To Me T-102: 15.36%, 5.10

The Marvels T-207: 41.86%, 6.42

 

The Covenant T-4: 29.51% Awareness, 5.65 Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 66% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Evil Dead Rise T-4: 40.09% Awareness, 5.61 Interest

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 66% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 50% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

 

The Blackening T-60: 18.98% Awareness, 5.32 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 26% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 65% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 31% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Elemental T-60: 34.23% Awareness, 5.61 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 92% chance of 10M, 69% chance of 20M, 54% chance of 30M, 31% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 70M

T-60 Interest: 76% chance of 10M, 64% chance of 20M, 52% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M, 28% chance of 60M, 24% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M

[filmlover]

Evil Dead Rise sales are pretty good near me. Lower-to-mid-teens will happen at least IMO.

[ZackM]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bad news is my presales count above had an issue. When I fixed it numbers for Guardians previews did go down. So we can continue to doom Guardians for now. Hopefully the tide reverses soon. 

 

I also hope @ZackM will start posting Guardians numbers as well. his comps and tables are wonderful. 

I will start posting GotG3 numbers tomorrow.  Had an issue this weekend that prevented me from getting started on it.