The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/24/2022 at 10:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Format Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-5	Batman (Tue)	PLF	1	1	441	446	98.88%	$17.05	$7,519.05
	Batman (Tue) Total		1	1	441	446	98.88%	$17.05	$7,519.05
T-7	Batman (Thu)	PLF	25	259	1,908	5,928	32.19%	$14.97	$28,565.20
		Standard	68	325	1,527	9,487	16.10%	$11.93	$18,211.78
	Batman (Thu) Total		93	584	3,435	15,415	22.28%	$13.62	$46,776.98
T-8	Batman (Fri)	PLF	43	870	1,687	10,229	16.49%	$15.26	$25,740.64
		Standard	101	807	1,209	15,100	8.01%	$11.96	$14,465.57
	Batman (Fri) Total		144	1,677	2,896	25,329	11.43%	$13.88	$40,206.21

 

Matinee Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-5	Batman (Tue)	N	1	1	441	446	98.88%	$17.05	$7,519.05
	Batman (Tue) Total		1	1	441	446	98.88%	$17.05	$7,519.05
T-7	Batman (Thu)	N	70	512	2,999	11,320	26.49%	$14.03	$42,083.03
		Y	23	72	436	4,095	10.65%	$10.77	$4,693.95
	Batman (Thu) Total		93	584	3,435	15,415	22.28%	$13.62	$46,776.98
T-8	Batman (Fri)	N	71	1,505	2,613	12,980	20.13%	$14.22	$37,160.82
		Y	73	172	283	12,349	2.29%	$10.76	$3,045.39
	Batman (Fri) Total		144	1,677	2,896	25,329	11.43%	$13.88	$40,206.21

 

**Thursday new sales are since Saturday morning (2/19)

**Friday new sales are since 2/10 (two weeks)

 

Spider-Man T-7 - 15,711/22,311 (70.4% sold)

Spider-Man Fri T-8 - 12,901/25,577 (50.44% sold)

 

Spider-Man comps

Thursday - .219x (10.93m)

Friday - .224x (16.15m)

 

***Note: Spider-Man is the only other movie I've tracked in Santikos; these are not predictions.***

Santikos Tracking

 

Format Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Batman (Tue)	PLF	1	0	441	446	98.88%	$17.05	$7,519.05
	Batman (Tue) Total		1	0	441	446	98.88%	$17.05	$7,519.05
T-3	Batman (Thu)	PLF	25	394	2,302	5,928	38.83%	$14.96	$34,427.27
		Standard	68	789	2,316	9,687	23.91%	$11.69	$27,068.90
	Batman (Thu) Total		93	1,183	4,618	15,615	29.57%	$13.32	$61,496.17
T-4	Batman (Fri)	PLF	43	793	2,480	10,229	24.24%	$15.14	$37,549.44
		Standard	101	958	2,167	15,100	14.35%	$11.67	$25,288.90
	Batman (Fri) Total		144	1,751	4,647	25,329	18.35%	$13.52	$62,838.34

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Batman (Tue)	N	1	0	441	446	98.88%	$17.05	$7,519.05
	Batman (Tue) Total		1	0	441	446	98.88%	$17.05	$7,519.05
T-3	Batman (Thu)	N	70	996	3,995	11,520	34.68%	$13.76	$54,961.22
		Y	23	187	623	4,095	15.21%	$10.49	$6,534.95
	Batman (Thu) Total		93	1,183	4,618	15,615	29.57%	$13.32	$61,496.17
T-4	Batman (Fri)	N	71	1,480	4,093	12,980	31.53%	$13.95	$57,093.23
		Y	73	271	554	12,349	4.49%	$10.37	$5,745.11
	Batman (Fri) Total		144	1,751	4,647	25,329	18.35%	$13.52	$62,838.34

 

**New sales are since Thursday morning (2/24)

 

Spider-Man T-3 - 17,123/22,311 (76.75% sold)

Spider-Man Fri T-4 - 14,253/26,157 (54.49% sold)

 

Spider-Man comps

Thursday - .27x (13.485m)

Friday - .326x (23.46m)

 

Friday really picking up compared to Spider-Man.  

 

***Note: Spider-Man is the only other movie I've tracked in Santikos; these are not predictions.***

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

If it opens 140 sure, but most in the tracking thread were saying 130 or under which is what I was speaking about and the notion that comic fans wouldn't see a comic movie on Thursday.

 

And 117 for Homecoming was higher than TASM2 and TASM1. This will open under BVS, TDKR, TDK. 2.86 multiplier is also very solid for what Homecoming opened to

BvS not a pure Batman film, there happened to be another huge character in that film and people were excited to see them share the screen. A solo Batman film in 2016 would have opened significantly lower. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

BvS not a pure Batman film, there happened to be another huge character in that film and people were excited to see them share the screen. A solo Batman film in 2016 would have opened significantly lower. 

See, I understand that reasoning but the previous Superman film was a disappointment and Affleck's casting was very divisive. Reviews were not good, though I suppose it's arguable that bad reviews impact legs more than the opening

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

See, I understand that reasoning but the previous Superman film was a disappointment and Affleck's casting was very divisive. Reviews were not good, though I suppose it's arguable that bad reviews impact legs more than the opening

MoS was divisive, but crossovers create interest in general and it was Batman and Superman, two of the top 3 biggest superhero names (plus Wonder Woman who is also very high up). Reviews were bad but as you said I think that hurt the legs more, there was enough hype for the invested to still check it out OW. Here, reviews are great but it just doesn't have that buzz that BvS was able to manage with the crossovers. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

 

And 117 for Homecoming was higher than TASM2 and TASM1. This will open under BVS, TDKR, TDK. 2.86 multiplier is also very solid for what Homecoming opened to

Silly comparing it to direct sequels. 
 

TASM and TASM2 weren’t hard to beat for Spider-Man, they already dropped big from the previous Spider-Man films. 

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

BvS not a pure Batman film, there happened to be another huge character in that film and people were excited to see them share the screen. A solo Batman film in 2016 would have opened significantly lower. 

Agreed. I'm stoked for The Batman, but overall hype is nowhere NEAR where the level was the week leading up to BvS in 2016. 

[Porthos]

Variety: 100m-125m OW.

 

Quote

The comic book film, starring Robert Pattinson as the Caped Crusader, looks like it will be more than up for the task at hand. “The Batman” is targeting a huge opening weekend, somewhere between $100 million and $125 million at the domestic box office. Should those estimates hold, “The Batman” would be only the second pandemic-era movie to cross the $100 million mark in a single weekend. (The first was Sony’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which debuted last December to a staggering $260 million.) Given positive early reviews, some box office watchers believe $100 million is actually a conservative projection and wouldn’t be surprised if “The Batman” collected at least $140 million in its first three days of release.

 

"wouldn't be surprised at 140m+  OW" is a hell of a fudge, I have to say though.  

Edited February 28, 2022 by Porthos

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-2 days
2/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	182	183	47,716	56,898	83.86%
ATP
$23.34

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-3 days
2/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	29,238	39,928	73.23%
ATP
$19.29

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	9	15	0	6
Seats Added	322	1,110	1,757	0	1,566
Seats Sold	10,307	5,992	6,998	4,203	4,152
2/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,385	162,299	935,623	17.35%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	63	200	387
ATP
$16.71

 

Thursday Only:

.255x NWH T-4

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.291x NWH T-4

 

All Previews:

.375x NWH T-4

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.471x NWH T-4

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

736

3112

23.65%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

477

3405

14.01%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3007	208	29933	10.05%	14	193

 

AMCs sold	2047
Cinemarks sold	274
Regals sold	440
Harkins sold	246

 

Tuesday:

Total

1081

4

1428

Wednesday:

Total

958

39

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

5046

251

32588

 

0.322x NWH T-4 (16.10M)

2.44x Eternals T-4 (23.22M)
1.79x Black Widow T-4 (23.63M)

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

796

3112

25.58%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

516

3405

15.15%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3374	367	29933	11.27%	14	193

 

AMCs sold	2228
Cinemarks sold	322
Regals sold	504
Harkins sold	320

 

Tuesday:

Total

1092

11

1428

Wednesday:

Total

1005

47

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

5471

425

32588

 

0.334x NWH T-3 (16.70M)

2.43x Eternals T-3 (23.09M)

1.75x Black Widow T-3 (23.10M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2351(+8)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(110 showings): 3446(+252)/30278 in 15 theaters

 

0.266x NWH's T-4 (13.30M)

3.02x Eternals' T-4 (28.69M)

1.69x Black Widow T-4 (22.31M)

 

Friday(145 showings): 3423(+364)/44973 in 15 theaters

0.200x NWH's T-5 (14.39M)

2.16x Eternals' T-5 (46.09M)

1.19x Black Widow T-5 (31.30M)

 

Saturday(152 showings): 1894(+228)/46754 in 15 theaters

0.174x NWH's T-6 (12.86M)

2.21x Eternals' T-6 (53.31M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 453(+55)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.172x NWH's T-7 (11.04M)

2.50x Eternals' T-7 (40.83M)

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2409(+58)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(118 showings): 4066(+620)/31046 in 15 theaters

 

0.283x NWH's T-3 (14.15M)

2.99x Eternals' T-3 (28.41M)

1.71x Black Widow T-3 (22.57M)

 

Friday(205 showings): 4204(+781)/54179 in 15 theaters

0.231x NWH's T-4 (16.62M)

2.35x Eternals' T-4 (50.15M)

1.28x Black Widow T-4 (33.66M)

 

Saturday(190 showings): 2286(+392)/52155 in 15 theaters

0.189x NWH's T-5 (13.97M)

2.29x Eternals' T-5 (55.23M)

 

Sunday(140 showings): 545(+92)/38248 in 15 theaters

0.186x NWH's T-6 (11.94M)

2.14x Eternals' T-6 (34.95M)

[excel1]

4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2409(+58)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(118 showings): 4066(+620)/31046 in 15 theaters

 

0.283x NWH's T-3 (14.15M)

2.99x Eternals' T-3 (28.41M)

1.71x Black Widow T-3 (22.57M)

 

Friday(205 showings): 4204(+781)/54179 in 15 theaters

0.231x NWH's T-4 (16.62M)

2.35x Eternals' T-4 (50.15M)

1.28x Black Widow T-4 (33.66M)

 

Saturday(190 showings): 2286(+392)/52155 in 15 theaters

0.189x NWH's T-5 (13.97M)

2.29x Eternals' T-5 (55.23M)

 

Sunday(140 showings): 545(+92)/38248 in 15 theaters

0.186x NWH's T-6 (11.94M)

2.14x Eternals' T-6 (34.95M)

 

Eternals comp shown here is a good starting point I think 

[keysersoze123]

Definitely its accelerating but the reviews start dropping around noon eastern. So we will see full impact tomorrow. Key thing is release is so big that there is huge potential with walkups as well. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(226 showings): 12792(+707)/32028 ATP: $14.82

0.458x NWH's T-4 (22.90M)

2.10x Eternals T-4 (19.95M)

 

Friday(329 showings): 13521(+1007)/46925 ATP: $14.92

0.516x NWH's T-5 (37.12M)

2.27x Eternals T-5 (48.44M)

 

Saturday(347 showings): 14241(+1286)/50030 ATP: $14.33

0.533x NWH's T-6 (39.39M)

2.40x Eternals T-6 (57.89M)

 

Sunday(320 showings): 6919(+873)/45569 ATP: $14.15

0.456x NWH's T-7 (29.27M)

2.01x Eternals T-7 (32.82M)

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(243 showings): 13964(+1172)/33461 ATP: $14.80

0.489x NWH's T-3 (24.45M)

2.14x Eternals T-3 (20.33M)

 

Friday(382 showings): 15250(+1729)/51932 ATP: $14.91

0.561x NWH's T-4 (40.35M)

2.37x Eternals T-4 (50.58M)

 

Saturday(398 showings): 16233(+1992)/54597 ATP: $14.32

0.580x NWH's T-5 (42.86M)

2.53x Eternals T-5 (61.02M)

 

Sunday(366 showings): 8329(+1410)/49591 ATP: $14.10

0.510x NWH's T-6 (32.73M)

2.12x Eternals T-6 (34.62M)

[keysersoze123]

On 2/26/2022 at 1:46 PM, keysersoze123 said:

The Batman MTC2

Saturday - 54529/784061 660960.18 5049 shows

 

This will have a great multi for sure. Weekend sales are rock solid for sure.

The Batman MTC2

Saturday - 75000/786754 900485.86 5045 shows

 

Good growth over past 2 days. 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Definitely its accelerating but the reviews start dropping around noon eastern. So we will see full impact tomorrow. Key thing is release is so big that there is huge potential with walkups as well. 

 

Depending on who else posts late tonight, Philly and Sacto should be the first real tests, IMO.  Maybe Sacto more than Philly since they dropped at 9am here and I'll be taking my sample about 2 hours or so later than Eric will be.

 

Damned curious to see how it does locally, really.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

31 minutes ago, ZackM said:

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-2 days
2/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	182	183	47,716	56,898	83.86%
ATP
$23.34

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-3 days
2/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	29,238	39,928	73.23%
ATP
$19.29

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	9	15	0	6
Seats Added	322	1,110	1,757	0	1,566
Seats Sold	10,307	5,992	6,998	4,203	4,152
2/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,385	162,299	935,623	17.35%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	63	200	387
ATP
$16.71

 

Thursday Only:

.255x NWH T-4

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.291x NWH T-4

 

All Previews:

.375x NWH T-4

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.471x NWH T-4

Not in love with that pace, but you did post around 6 hours earlier than yesterday. Is this an 18-hour pace or were yesterday's numbers just posted late? 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just bought a Saturday imax seat. Saturday seats starting to sell out well around me for general showings as well. I wouldn’t call it a major acceleration but 130-140 is on the table I think 

[TwoMisfits]

Maybe it should be BOT vs Tracking Thread vs Contest Thread - 4 people including myself have guesses within 1 million-ish of each other.  So, if we did a Mean, Median, Mode, it would be interesting to see which is closest...

 

For the record, the OW Batman contest number with 4 people zeroing in is $159-$160M...I made my guess without seeing tracking, but going with my gut...so YMMV...

[charlie Jatinder]

one of the circuits

Edited March 1, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[DAJK]

41 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

one of the circuits

Just for comparison’s sake, are you able to add NWH to that graph just for fun?