The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, datpepper said:

Little Mermaid tickets this Wednesday at 9am EST

so what's the expection. slower, at par or faster start than Mario. I think half of Mario is good enough start and then hope its backloaded. 

[ThomasNicole]

I think a good numbers would be at least half of Mario, should be enough for 100M 3-Day OW

 

Hopefully a little better tho, i don´t think Mermaid will be that big OS so it would be nice to get 300M DOM, and i think for that an OW around 125M would be better 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I think a good numbers would be at least half of Mario, should be enough for 100M 3-Day OW

 

Hopefully a little better tho, i don´t think Mermaid will be that big OS so it would be nice to get 300M DOM, and i think for that an OW around 125M would be better 

Let me warn you. Mario's late surge was simply insane. Doing even half of that is not a joke. Mario kept climbing without any catalyst as reviews were out only a day before release. 

 

To provide a context Mario T-10 which happed over a weekend is stronger than Guardians T-10 which is a Monday :-)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

So today (or I guess yesterday by my time) seemed like Guardians’ first sign of improvement right? I know there was that error last week but it seems like there’s a bit of optimism from the updates.

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Let me warn you. Mario's late surge was simply insane. Doing even half of that is not a joke. Mario kept climbing without any catalyst as reviews were out only a day before release. 

 

To provide a context Mario T-10 which happed over a weekend is stronger than Guardians T-10 which is a Monday 🙂

The joys of having an audience that doesn´t care about what others think, not every franchise have that, we love to see

 

2 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

So today (or I guess yesterday by my time) seemed like Guardians’ first sign of improvement right? I know there was that error last week but it seems like there’s a bit of optimism from the updates.

I´m so sad at this point that i´m just ready to get bad news in a few hours, last weekend i was so happy that it showed some pulse and then it blows up in my face lol

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I hope we get an update from @Inceptionzq soon as well. 

I’ll be back with daily updates for the last week. I really wanted to do daily updates for Guardians, but I’ve been buried with school this semester. Especially this past month. Just a couple more days and I’m basically done. Almost there…

 

I have been getting numbers most days for Drafthouse, Megaplex, and Event but I just haven’t been posting them.

[Porthos]

On 4/24/2023 at 12:29 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26954	27700	746	2.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

23

 

T-25 Comp:

%

Sold T-25

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

44.14

60

1690

0/171

22094/23784

7.11%

33839

2.20%

7.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10105  [1.18% sold]
Matinee:    15/3518  [0.43% | 2.01% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26945	27700	755	2.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

9

 

T-24 Comp:

%

Sold T-24

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

44.10

22

1712

0/171

22072/23784

7.20%

33839

2.23%

7.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10105  [1.18% sold]
Matinee:    15/3518  [0.43% | 1.99% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 26, 2023 by Porthos
corrected comp box

[Porthos]

On 4/24/2023 at 12:30 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25171	29054	3883	13.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

111

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	35.22		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	18.39%		12.68m
L&T	54.05		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	22.89%		15.67m
Bats	86.91		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	33.03%		18.77m
BP2	50.98		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	23.11%		14.28m
AM3	75.00		162	5177		0/238	27617/32794	15.79%		10475	37.07%		13.13m
JWD	129.69		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	35.41%		23.34m
TGM	80.09		235	4848		0/259	31085/35933	13.49%		11474	33.84%		15.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       754/11010  [6.85% sold]
Matinee:    124/3372  [3.68% | 3.19% of all tickets sold]
3D:            456/5457  [8.36% | 11.74% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

For all the lurkers from reddit, Twitter, and elsewhere who are just joining us:

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	25321	29357	4036	13.75%

 

Total Showings Added/Restored Today	2
Total Seats Added/Restored Today	303
Total Seats Sold/Restored Today	153

NOTE:  One of the showings that was removed last Tuesday was restored today, with the same number of tickets sold (29).  With those seats not counted as sold, the total number of seats sold locally today was 124.

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	35.75		265	11290		0/353	31386/42676	26.46%		21117	19.11%		12.87m
L&T	54.82		178	7362		0/228	24235/31597	23.30%		16962	23.79%		15.90m
Bats	87.11		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	34.33%		18.82m
BP2	51.63		201	7817		2/295	29214/37031	21.11%		16800	24.02%		14.46m
AM3	75.88		142	5319		0/238	27475/32794	16.22%		10475	38.53%		13.28m
JWD	126.68		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	36.80%		22.80m
TGM	80.11		190	5038		0/259	30895/35933	14.02%		11474	35.18%		15.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       799/11130  [7.18% sold]
Matinee:    126/3372  [3.74% | 3.12% of all tickets sold]
3D:            465/5457  [8.52% | 11.52% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

***IMPORTANT NOTE***

As I noted in the info boxes, one of the showtimes that was removed at a local theater last Tuesday was restored today, with all of the previous seats that were at the time sold, still sold (29, for the record).  Without those 29 tickets, the "real" total today, for pace purposes, was 124 seats sold.

 

I am very very likely going to adjust my home sheet and retroactively restore those 29 seats to last Tue's daily total and subtract it from this one.  If those other two showtimes are ever restored, probably do the same for them.  I very likely will not be adjusting the charts in my posts here for the last six days as it would be a gigantic PITA to do so, especially the comp boxes.

 

If folks are monitoring this on their own (for curve/pace purposes), just subtract 29 from today (T-10) and restore it to T-16's entry.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric Prime]

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	197	5695	3.46%

 

Comp - T-3

1.331x of Death on the Nile (1.46M)

3.078x of Marry Me (1.62M)

1.010x of Dog (1.27M)

0.380x of The Lost City (1.24M)

0.364x of Elvis (1.27M)

1.015x of Where the Crawdads Sing (2.33M)

0.174x of Don't Worry Darling (538K)

3.863x of Ticket to Paradise (4.25M)

[Eric Prime]

Big George Foreman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	30	36	3732	0.96%

 

Comp - T-3

0.022x of Creed III (118K)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Williams said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3358	39919	8.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp - T-11

1.597x of Black Widow (21.09M)

3.177x of Shang-Chi (27.96M)

1.972x of Eternals (18.73M)

0.334x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.02M)

0.564x of Thor 4 (16.37M)

0.447x of Black Panther 2 (12.53M)

0.759x of Ant-Man 3 (13.29M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3498	39919	8.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 140

 

Comp - T-10

1.581x of Black Widow (20.87M)

2.959x of Shang-Chi (26.04M)

1.923x of Eternals (18.27M)

0.340x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.25M)

0.570x of Thor 4 (16.53M)

0.455x of Black Panther 2 (12.74M)

0.768x of Ant-Man 3 (13.44M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Williams said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	507	17734	2.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp - T-25

0.397x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.15M)

2.522x of Nope (16.14M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	517	17734	2.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp - T-24

0.389x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7M)

2.474x of Nope (15.83M)

[vafrow]

I guess GOTG3 is finally having a pretty good day. Let's hope it's the start of a really good week.

[JayPrimetown]

Sisu getting Dolby screens this weekend at the sampling of AMC Theaters I track.

 

It is taking them over from what was a split between Mario and The Covenant. Could be a nice little overperform for Sisu.

 

I'll have numbers up for Are You There God, George Foreman, and Sisu on Wednesday evening.

[TwoMisfits]

Locals set...and in a nod to how bad its presales have been, even with the Atom deal releasing today, my locals have decided to NOT expand Margaret past its one presale screen.  So, maybe think low, even with the help.  I'm actually surprised b/c normally, with the $5 tickets, they expand even if it looks like a lousy open (see Plane, which then surprised)...

 

Mario keeps 3 at both places, including 1/2 the Dolby (PS-2 and ROTJ share the rest).  DnD and Air stay alive on full screens at both, but JW4 finally gets dropped from one, so it may be a casualty of the other next week.  Other casualties are almost all the post-Mario April openers, so don't look for great holds if it's week 3 for the movies...

Edited April 25, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[stripe]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians MTC2 Previews - 69623/594509 989638.98 3768 shows +8236

 

This is 4 days and few hours of run.  20m previews would normally mean 260-280K finish. Let us see if it can get there. 

 

It stopped working since thursday and then started working today. 🙂

 

And is it possible to gain 200k from now on?

[Menor the Destroyer]

25 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

And is it possible to gain 200k from now on?

Yes. It needs strong reviews. BW added 160k from this point, Guardians pace is similar to what BW was doing but BW already had the reviews out. If Guardians reviews can provide a further catalyst then that number is reachable. I expect them to do just that, but review bumps are not always predictable.

 

[YM!]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

so what's the expection. slower, at par or faster start than Mario. I think half of Mario is good enough start and then hope it’s backloaded. 

I’m expecting slower/at par. I do think it can be a bit backloaded like Aladdin was at first but also I do think Halle has a sizeable fanbase to drive up ticket sales.

[Mickiland16]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

I’m expecting slower/at par. I do think it can be a bit backloaded like Aladdin was at first but also I do think Halle has a sizeable fanbase to drive up ticket sales.

Also, maybe it's just the online burble but the discussion around it on social media specially Twitter, Instagram and TikTok seems more like an event compared to Aladdin, the dolls are apparently selling out too. Not like it's going to be MCU type of presales but I think there is anticipation for the tickets. 

[Tinalera]

Just dropping this off while I had a moment

 

Guardians of the Galaxy

Thurs May 4 and Fri May 5

Vancouver and Calgary Canada (T-10)

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	4	21	728	3573	4301	0.1692
	Fri	4	26	654	4390	5044	0.1296
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	21	546	3080	3626	0.1505
	Fri	4	25	400	3592	3992	0.1002

 

Antman comp

 

Antman Quantumania 

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17 (taken Feb 7)

Vancouver BC

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	1147	2345	3492	0.3284
	Fri	3	21	900	3273	4392	0.2049

 

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17 (taken Feb 08)

Calgary AB Canada

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	23	560	6072	4884	0.1146
Fri	4	30	424	5887	6311	0.0671