The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

Part of Deadline article. 

 

Quote

Advance tickets sales for GOTG3 are pacing currently at $26M and building. Last year at this time, Marvel Studio’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had $60M in presales before charting the post-pandemic’s second best opening stateside behind Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1M) with $187.4M.

 

I am surprised its so high relative to MOM. Most of the data we have is less than that. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

9 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

GotG2 wasn't as well received as the original film. It's not shocking that the third film will decrease. Quantumania probably knocked off 10-20M off the OW but who the heck was expecting this to open close to 200M even before Ant-Man 3? The revisionism to make the doom and gloom worse is unnecessary lmao

Yeah even before recent events I never got the $200M opening predictions. I could get expecting it to have a notable increase in its opening from part 2 but not that far. 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

now that’s just mean dude.

if you see in that thread, I thought this was most promising of all MCU Sequels but 200m is tough. But it did not even pan out relative to my expectations. I thought Rocket was among the popular character after he had a prominent role in Endgame and we have a movie focused on his origin. I think at this point it does not matter. People are jaded around SH movies. Does not bode well for anything not just MCU. 

I did not agree with Spidey's post that GOTG2 impacted this movie's OW and so I tagged XXR. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

13 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

GotG2 wasn't as well received as the original film. It's not shocking that the third film will decrease. Quantumania probably knocked off 10-20M off the OW but who the heck was expecting this to open close to 200M even before Ant-Man 3? The revisionism to make the doom and gloom worse is unnecessary lmao

 

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

@XXR Metro Boomin

 

I never actually thought it would reach $200M, as one of my early comments on that club states. 
 

However, I did absolutely think an IM3/BP2 level opening would happen. I am disappointed with where it’s going to end up. Looks like Deadpool x Wolverine will be out next realistic shot at $200M.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Part of Deadline article. 

 

 

I am surprised its so high relative to MOM. Most of the data we have is less than that. 

Not sure how that is even possible. It's not even at that ratio for Thu and MoM presales were at a point where they had spilled over into the weekend so all the post-Thu days should have a lower ratio. I'm guessing Deadline mixed something up. 

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

@XXR Metro Boomin

 

 

What is crazy about this club is that it wasn't an old club...it was made just 4 weeks before Ant Man 3's open...and had a lot of interest and "almost" people...

 

While we can debate the profitability later, from the presale tracking, GOTG 3 looks like it will be disappointing a lot of folks if we base it on our Jan 1 2023 thoughts for the movie (I know it's gonna be $100M or more DOM below mine, without some crazy legs)...

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

 

I never actually thought it would reach $200M, as one of my early comments on that club states. 
 

However, I did absolutely think an IM3/BP2 level opening would happen. I am disappointed with where it’s going to end up. Looks like Deadpool x Wolverine will be out next realistic shot at $200M.

its possible they are under reporting MOM. Presales for that movie was crazy strong. Every PLF was almost sold out and regular shows were filling up fast at this point. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

 

I never actually thought it would reach $200M, as one of my early comments on that club states. 
 

However, I did absolutely think an IM3/BP2 level opening would happen. I am disappointed with where it’s going to end up. Looks like Deadpool x Wolverine will be out next realistic shot at $200M.

Do you agree with Spidey that Vol2 impacted this movie?

[Reed121]

30 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Big disagree. The OW for GotG 2 adjusts past BP2 and MCU has gotten way more frontloaded since then. Zero reason this shouldn’t have pushed 200 on OW given a “healthy” MCU. The fact that we might get like half that OW just speaks volumes to how unhealthy of a stage the franchise is in now. 

 Black Panther 2 didn’t hit 200m so why would Guardians 3.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if you see in that thread, I thought this was most promising of all MCU Sequels but 200m is tough. But it did not even pan out relative to my expectations. I thought Rocket was among the popular character after he had a prominent role in Endgame and we have a movie focused on his origin. I think at this point it does not matter. People are jaded around SH movies. Does not bode well for anything not just MCU. 

I did not agree with Spidey's post that GOTG2 impacted this movie's OW and so I tagged XXR. 

Oh I wasn’t being serious I was just fooling around lol. Sorry if it came off differently.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Do you agree with Spidey that Vol2 impacted this movie?

Not sure. V2 definitely didn’t have the reception of V1 but it didn’t have bad reception either. It feels like the general sentiment around these characters didn’t pull over quite as much as other MCU characters. 
 

I also retain some bias as GOTG is my favorite MCU sub-franchise. That probably blinded me to more obvious problems with interest/hype,

[keysersoze123]

Just now, XXR Metro Boomin said:

Not sure. V2 definitely didn’t have the reception of V1 but it didn’t have bad reception either. It feels like the general sentiment around these characters didn’t pull over quite as much as other MCU characters. 
 

I also retain some bias as GOTG is my favorite MCU sub-franchise. That probably blinded me to more obvious problems with interest/hype,

If 2nd movie impacted 3rd Ragnarok should not have increaed that much either. Nor should IM3 after IM2. I just feel we are in different era and be conservative until next mega breakout like NWH or DS2. 

[JustLurking]

I don't get why Vol 2 would have impacted it negatively. It wasn't as well received as 1 but by all metrics it was still very well regarded. That just doesn't make any sense to me.

[vafrow]

I always felt that GOTG3 was going to be one of the stronger films out of the post Endgame MCU, but, clearly it wasn't unanimous.

 

However, even if people felt it wasn't due for any big increase, I think most people would have felt it was one of the safer films. 

 

I think that's the part that's hardest to reconcile, especially now that it has decent reviews.

[MovieMan89]

59 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

GotG2 wasn't as well received as the original film. It's not shocking that the third film will decrease. Quantumania probably knocked off 10-20M off the OW but who the heck was expecting this to open close to 200M even before Ant-Man 3? The revisionism to make the doom and gloom worse is unnecessary lmao

Again, strongly disagree. Disney positioned this as their “big” 2023 MCU release all along. You really think they did that expecting it wouldn’t be scraping at least 175 OW at the time? Since when was the last premiere MCU release of the year not on that level? 
 

Much more importantly: since when do MCU trilogy cappers decrease on OW? Oh yeah… never before just now. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

We stopped getting those Fandango reports for movie presales. Even when they are bad they would massage it by comparing with random movie like for Guardians they can say like its doing 3x the presales compared to Black Adam or something like that or even compare the presales with the last movie that released 6 years ago. 

 

Studio will come up with conservative OW projection. I think we will get it tomorrow. @Shawn would know for sure. 

Yep, Disney is usually willing to put out what they think is a conservative number for Marvel movies.

 

However, sometimes the conservative one ends up being pretty close lately. They said they're in the same ballpark as my 110-125 range at the moment. So I'd figure they're expecting 110+.

 

My gut says there won't be many surprises in the next few days with this one but we'll see. Walk-ups should be stronger than DSITMOM, at least.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Walk-ups should be stronger than DSITMOM, at least.

That wont be easy considering how big that movie was. we will know for sure with thursday walkups but I would be shocked if its anywhere near DS2. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/1/2023 at 3:57 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

821

4344

18.90%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

674

3222

20.92%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4064	360	34608	11.74%	14	225

 

AMCs sold	2614
Cinemarks sold	678
Regals sold	316
Harkins sold	456

 

0.829x Ant-Man 3 T-3 (14.51M)

0.653x Black Panther WF T-3 (18.27M)

0.564x Thor L&T T-3 (16.34M)

0.376x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (13.53M)

0.743x Batman T-3 (16.05M)

1.80x Eternals T-3 (17.14M)

 

Unfortunately it looks like Megaplex tracking is dead

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

887

4344

20.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

749

3222

23.25%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4509	445	34794	12.96%	14	226

 

AMCs sold	2847
Cinemarks sold	768
Regals sold	353
Harkins sold	541

 

0.853x Ant-Man T-2 (14.94M)

0.662x Black Panther WF T-2 (18.53M)

0.568x Thor L&T T-2 (16.47M)

0.380x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (13.67M)

0.721x Batman T-2 (15.58M)

1.81x Eternals T-2 (17.19M)

[Mr Roark]

I kept on saying there isn’t that much hype for this one and the reasons are multiple and obvious.

Even if was fine it also had the worst reception of the three… and the second one was met as a significant downgrade from the first…

[Shawn Robbins]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That wont be easy considering how big that movie was. we will know for sure with thursday walkups but I would be shocked if its anywhere near DS2. 

Oh I don't mean on a pound-for-pound level, just in terms of daily hold ratios. Definitely scaled down from DSITMOM in terms of actual butts in seats.