The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[MrPink]

Don’t recall F9 having very good presales to begin with so it’d need to probably pace ahead in the final days

[ChipDerby]

15 hours ago, von Kenni said:

I'm not sure what makes $318 mil really good if the movie cost $250 mil and with that DOM number the WW can barely reach $750 mil, I.e. even breakeven is threatened and surpassing that isn't really good. $1B+ would be really good IMHO.

 

 

Maybe you didn't read my post.

[keysersoze123]

On 5/3/2023 at 6:52 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians MTC2 Previews(T-2) - 123100/743048 1754747.99 5335 shows +14289

 

Relative to MTC1 this is a good increase. I think this will over index in MTC2. 

Guardians MTC2 Previews(T-1) - 147878/767040 2085849.41 5622 shows

 

I think its finishing close to Ant 3 at MTC2 as well. 

 

Ant comps

 

On 2/16/2023 at 10:01 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man MTC2 previews - 162147/794420 2297441.32 5680 shows

 

Overnight run that just wrapped up. its about 70% of Wakanda. So about 18.6m. 

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by keysersoze123

[stripe]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians MTC2 Previews(T-2) - 147878/767040 2085849.41 5622 shows

 

I think its finishing close to Ant 3 at MTC2 as well. 

 

Ant comps

 

 

 

Are you expecting 17.5M as AMQ?

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Are you expecting 17.5M as AMQ?

Let us wait and see how walkups go. It will be better than Ant 3 for sure. I mentioned it finishing below Ant as its behind in presales even a day before release. 

[reddevil19]

I've been pulling for a movie to finally finish in the 250-300 million range domestically for ages. 110-ish OW makes that quite possible, I feel like. So... here's hoping for 110 OW. 😛 

[M37]

3 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

What do you mean by PSM here? My usual interpretation of that phrase would imply Final/PS, but we don't have a final number. 

Yeah I was using final, which for each of the last 4 MCU films back to MoM, 1 ticket sold for Alpha = $55/$56 in total preview gross. 

 

The comp values, even the the unweighted ones, seem to be way off from that value at present (but I’m not by computer so maybe I’m just thinking about it wrong)

[ZackM]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah I was using final, which for each of the last 4 MCU films back to MoM, 1 ticket sold for Alpha = $55/$56 in total preview gross. 

 

The comp values, even the the unweighted ones, seem to be way off from that value at present (but I’m not by computer so maybe I’m just thinking about it wrong)

Looking at my records, you've got BPWF at the high end with $57.41 per ticket sold and NWH at the low end with $53.21 per ticket sold.  If GotG3 does 18.5m on 315K tickets, that would be $58.73 per ticket.  So higher than we've seen since I started tracking Alpha, but nothing crazy like we got from movies like Jurassic World and Maverick, which were both near $70 per ticket.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Looking at my records, you've got BPWF at the high end with $57.41 per ticket sold and NWH at the low end with $53.21 per ticket sold.  If GotG3 does 18.5m on 315K tickets, that would be $58.73 per ticket.  So higher than we've seen since I started tracking Alpha, but nothing crazy like we got from movies like Jurassic World and Maverick, which were both near $70 per ticket.

how about bats. Both bats and maverick had early imax/plf shows over 2 days that caused spike in ATP. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah I was using final, which for each of the last 4 MCU films back to MoM, 1 ticket sold for Alpha = $55/$56 in total preview gross. 

 

The comp values, even the the unweighted ones, seem to be way off from that value at present (but I’m not by computer so maybe I’m just thinking about it wrong)

Ah, I see. Definitionally that ratio must be the same for the comp value as it was for the film that is generating that comp value, so I don't see how it could be off. Unless the comp values themselves are wrong.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[ZackM]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

how about bats. Both bats and maverick had early imax/plf shows over 2 days that caused spike in ATP. 

The Batman was $51.31

Black Adam was $51.75

 

Those are the two lowest values.

 

It actually maps out really nicely.  In terms of indexing there are perfect groupings from DC < Marvel < Non-Superhero.

[GOGODanca]

https://deadline.com/2023/05/box-office-little-mermaid-opening-projection-1235356151/

 

$110m 4 day for TLM

 

Quote

Disney will have a $100M+ opening title stateside this weekend in Marvel Studios’ Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 which is eyeing around $110M, possibly north of $120M. I hear the pic’s advance tickets sales are pacing 6% behind Ant-Man and the Wasp:

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by GOGODanca

[ringedmortality]

Little Mermaid gonna hit 130 4-day

[PrinceRico]

Looks like The Little Mermaid will brake out. Should see a big bump next Monday when reactions hit. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Deadline's tracking source is only a little above our low end ranges, so that's a good early signal of some cohesion in various signs. Will be curious to see how the next few weeks pan out as pre-sales are tricky to look at for the moment.

 

FYI, a $110m 4-day would translate to around $84-86M 3-day. Basically right in the middle of our $70-90M range.

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
252	9376	42141	22.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

703

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

ATP - $14.59

 

I was expecting well north of 1k tickets sold today but oh well. Going to pull back my prediction to $18M-$19M THUR ; $115M-$120M OW 

 

Note: Mario sold 1820 seats from T-2 to T-1 

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
258	10813	44061	24.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1437

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

1

ATP - $14.57

 

Excellent final day! Still going $18M-$19M previews 

Low end: $115M OW

High end: $125M OW 

 

NOTE: Mario sold 3964 seats from T-1 to T-0

[ZackM]

5 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
5/3/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	5,513	17,116	32.21%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	1	1
ATP
$46.29

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	39	163	142	5	7
Seats Added	4,709	15,602	18,074	265	679
Seats Sold	26,043	15,962	15,307	10,424	7,044
5/3/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	7,283	210,330	1,166,703	18.03%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	12	88	297	560
ATP
$16.76

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1	$15.7	$15.4	$16.9	$17.4	$16.8	$17.3
T-2	$15.2	$14.9	$16.4	$17.0	$16.7	$17.1
T-3	$14.8	$14.5	$16.4	$16.9	$16.6	$17.0
T-4	$14.3	$14.0	$16.1	$16.7	$16.0	$16.4
T-5	$13.8	$13.6	$15.9	$16.4	$15.5	$15.9
T-6	$13.5	$13.4	$15.8	$16.3	$15.2	$15.7
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

 

Final day presales much more in line with AM3 than BPWF or Thor4

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	19	39	163	142	5
Seats Added	1,764	4,709	15,602	18,074	265
Seats Sold	21,221	26,043	15,962	15,307	10,424
5/4/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	7,302	231,551	1,168,467	19.82%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	16	102	332	661
ATP
$16.60

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$15.9	$15.6	$16.7	$17.2	$16.5	$16.9
T-1	$15.7	$15.4	$16.9	$17.4	$16.8	$17.3
T-2	$15.2	$14.9	$16.4	$17.0	$16.7	$17.1
T-3	$14.8	$14.5	$16.4	$16.9	$16.6	$17.0
T-4	$14.3	$14.0	$16.1	$16.7	$16.0	$16.4
T-5	$13.8	$13.6	$15.9	$16.4	$15.5	$15.9
T-6	$13.5	$13.4	$15.8	$16.3	$15.2	$15.7
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

[ZackM]

Alpha comps are going to finish between 17m and 18.5m.  Given the other data and the marathon, I'm guessing we'll see something between 17.5m and 19.5m.

[keysersoze123]

Expectation that final pace would be dramatically different from Ant 3 was foolhardy after what we have seen over past month. Any impact of reception could be seen sat/sun or more important with post OW holds. Let us wait and see. MCU movies have gotten frontloaded bcos they have a large fanbase who go to these movies early to avoid spoilers. There are GA who are jaded around these and not even the reviews will change that. Occasionally movies like Black Panther pull in non SH audience. Otherwise these movies are predictable. 

 

On marathon shows yesterday, it played only in 100 locations. Off that MTC1 had 58 and sold about 265K worth of tickets. Since its screens are dominated by large cities on the coasts where ATP is very high, I am expect it to be 70% of overall gross. So I would be careful adding these tickets to overall tickets and then extrapolating it. I think I would rather add whatever the thursday gross with another 350-400K. 

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by keysersoze123

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Alpha comps are going to finish between 17m and 18.5m.  Given the other data and the marathon, I'm guessing we'll see something between 17.5m and 19.5m.

 

I would not go above Alpha comp...I don't see any reason the heartland would do better than the coasts and big cities on this movie.  If anything, I'd expect to see the same thing as Ant 3 (which is why I asked how that did earlier), which apparently overindexed at both MTC 1 and 2...

Edited May 4, 2023 by TwoMisfits