The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	4123	32751	12.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

298

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

NOTE: *This is probably overindexing by a bit because of Disney influence

 

Definitely accelerated here. I'm thinking it does about 2/3 of GOTG3 in Orlando, so ~$10.5M-$11.5M Previews

 

COMPS

T-3

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.510x) ~$8.9M THUR

 

JOHN WICK 4

(2.016x) ~$17.9M THUR

 

Average: $13.4M THUR 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
207	4671	35139	13.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

548

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

NOTE: *This is probably overindexing by a bit because of Disney influence

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.539x) ~$9.4M THUR

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.842x) ~$16.4M THUR

 

Average: $12.9M THUR Previews

[Krissykins]

Yeh I’m still thinking The Boogeyman doesn’t do that well. 

[cooldude97]

Wonder if elemental taking more screens then expected that could have been used for the flash (though that could change if elementals pre-sales floundered)

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-37 *First 24 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	1319	23376	5.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 12:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Looking more like a Fast X type of opening than say a mega opening of $100M+

It's still very early so lots of time for recovery 

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

 

(0.352x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3

~$6.2M THUR PREVIEWS 

 

(0.579x) of ACROSS THE SPIDERVERSE

 

(1.630x) of TRANSFORMERS RISE OF THE BEAST

 

(1.040x) of FAST X

~$7.8M THUR PREVIEWS 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

35 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Tracks with what I'm seeing at MiniTC 1, with early shows it's less than half of Guardians after the same number of hours of sales. And there is an early show in this chain that has singlehandedly contributed over a third of sales.

is this below what you anticipated? Or would you say all good so far? 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

is this below what you anticipated? Or would you say all good so far? 

I would say it's less than I thought and my expectations were not super high. At the moment it doesn't feel like a 100+ opener whatsoever. Let's see where it is at the end of the first day when we have full comps with everything from all the trackers. 

[keysersoze123]

Flash has fewer shows to start for any movie that we expect to open big. Let us see how things go. Zack will be posting MTC1 numbers for this but this is below Guardians or Spiderverse. of course its comfortably bigger than Indy 5(DUH)

[Maggie]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Flash has fewer shows to start for any movie that we expect to open big. Let us see how things go. Zack will be posting MTC1 numbers for this but this is below Guardians or Spiderverse. of course its comfortably bigger than Indy 5(DUH)

Oh no. I'm hoping it does at least 100M OW

[ringedmortality]

More like The Flop am i right

[keysersoze123]

If it behaves like MCU sequels its not opening to 100m OW based on the start. But its early days yet. It has a shorter presale cycle and so the behavior would be slightly different plus it will add more shows for sure. 

[YSLDC]

Can anyone name the last DC movie not set in the Batman universe (Joker 2019, The Batman 2022) that had great pre-sales from the jump?

[GOGODanca]

There's no reason for the flash to have  a huge mcu sequel esque start or even on par with The Batman. if its as good as WB believes it to be then it will get great reviews and ramp up close to release

[Firepower]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If it behaves like MCU sequels its not opening to 100m OW based on the start. But its early days yet. It has a shorter presale cycle and so the behavior would be slightly different plus it will add more shows for sure. 

Shazam 2 destroyed DC.

[grim22]

That's it, The Flash is done. 40M opening, 99M finish, 250M WW. No point tracking it anymore.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, grim22 said:

That's it, The Flash is done. 40M opening, 99M finish, 250M WW. No point tracking it anymore.

The Flop is done for sure. Just make it direct to the Max :-)

[John Marston]

Obviously The Flash probably won’t tank  or anything but there is zero reason why it would open above GOTG 3

Edited May 23, 2023 by John Marston

[TheFlatLannister]

Wow DC did a great job brainwashing me cause I thought this was opening $150M+ based on crazy social media hype 

[Maggie]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

Wow DC did a great job brainwashing me cause I thought this was opening $150M+ based on crazy social media hype 

yeap. Same here. At least 130M i thought

[Firepower]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Wow DC did a great job brainwashing me cause I thought this was opening $150M+ based on crazy social media hype 

But not actually great job at brainwashing paying audience it seems.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Flop is done for sure. Just make it direct to the Max :-)

its just a joke. As i posted previously its still early to hone in. This movie also has the over hang of too many early shows. I think at times its one too many.