filmlover Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 I think The Woman King is done for Picture after missing both SAG Ensemble and PGA. Women Talking also feels like if it gets nominated for Picture it'll only have one other nomination (Adapted Screenplay). Selma/The Post vibes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 yeah ok i say take that line up, sub out glass onion and black panther, put in Aftersun and Babylon. this mirrors Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley as the two best picture nominees that missed PGA last year. Aftersun = Drive My Car too arthouse for guilds but there's just enough taste in the Academy to let it slip through (this also might be triangle of sadness). Babylon = Nightmare Alley big starry bomb that feels like it should be a "this had Oscar buzz" but squeezes in anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 surprised by no RRR at pga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric the Ape Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, TMP said: surprised by no RRR at pga I'm assuming only American films are allowed in these awards ceremonies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Eric the Plane said: I'm assuming only American films are allowed in these awards ceremonies no parasite was nominated here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Oh wait I erred by not mentioning Triangle of Sadness as a possibility when I did my list. In fact I might swap out one of my final three for that. If ever a movie seemed tailor made for the newish Academy voting body it is that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 The Whale in PGA is big, and with Hong getting into SAG and the BAFTA longlist, it might be 8th or 9th now. The Way of Water is suffering from The Two Towers effect. Like Fellowship, Avatar won Cinematography and had the probable Director runner-up, and this time around it will likely miss both categories. There's a good chance it ends up with only 4 nominations (Picture, Production Design, VFX, Sound). Late screeners are a valid defense, but it might be too late to regain buzz for Jimbo and Cinematography. As much as people keeping hyping up All Quiet as a rising contender, it's been missing most of the guilds. So far it's only gotten ADG, CAS, and MPSE. Bardo has one less guild but the ASC nomination is arguably more impressive than anything All Quiet has been nominated for so far. BAFTA should give a better sense on All Quiet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Although PGA is well known for their more populist tone, see Deadpool, WW and AQP, the list still prove that the pressure to reward a blockbuster that actually bring people to cinema is real this round. We aren't seeing two, but three blockbusters being included in the list, even you can argue the Whale surprise is thanks to its box office success as limited indie run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 8 hours ago, titanic2187 said: Although PGA is well known for their more populist tone, see Deadpool, WW and AQP, the list still prove that the pressure to reward a blockbuster that actually bring people to cinema is real this round. We aren't seeing two, but three blockbusters being included in the list, even you can argue the Whale surprise is thanks to its box office success as limited indie run. One could argue four given that Glass Onion would've been a blockbuster if its special one week theatrical run is any indication. That probably ended up making people more pissed off than ever that Netflix hates movie theaters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 I won't be watching these (busy seeing A Man Called Otto and The Whale over the rest of this weekend) but howling at the joke that is Critics Choice being potentially derailed by the Golden Globes possibly being a super-spreader event (Jamie Lee Curtis has COVID too and won't be attending). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/13/2023 at 4:34 AM, WrathOfHan said: The Whale in PGA is big, and with Hong getting into SAG and the BAFTA longlist, it might be 8th or 9th now. The Way of Water is suffering from The Two Towers effect. Like Fellowship, Avatar won Cinematography and had the probable Director runner-up, and this time around it will likely miss both categories. There's a good chance it ends up with only 4 nominations (Picture, Production Design, VFX, Sound). Late screeners are a valid defense, but it might be too late to regain buzz for Jimbo and Cinematography. As much as people keeping hyping up All Quiet as a rising contender, it's been missing most of the guilds. So far it's only gotten ADG, CAS, and MPSE. Bardo has one less guild but the ASC nomination is arguably more impressive than anything All Quiet has been nominated for so far. BAFTA should give a better sense on All Quiet. Agree about Way of Water possibly suffering TTT effect. It has to compete also against Maverick thunder. Right now I would say 1. Banshees of Inisherim (Many Critics + Globes win + strong at SAG) 2. Maverick (strong with guilds, even DGA) 3. Fabelmans (NBR+Globes win but some misses in SAG or ASC) 4. EEAAO (strong at SAG and precursors, no Globe win) 5. Elvis (strong with guilds + Butler win, no DGA) 6. Avatar (missed DGA and ASC. Weak at BAFTAs longlists. But strong presence in key precursors + PGA) 7. Tàr (scored at DGA, solid with precursors) 8. All Quiet on the Western Front (strong with Oscars and BAFTA longlists , but not with guilds) 9. The Whale (PGA + success, but missing with many precursors) 10. Babylon (no PGA, but SAG Ensemble+pedigree) 11. Women Talking (SAG Ensemble, but no PGA and many key misses) 12. Glass Onion (PGA nom, but no SAG Ensemble hurts) 13. Triangle of Sadness (Cannes win, no PGA) 14. Wakanda Forever (PGA + some guilds noms, but many misses in important precursors) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 This has to be one of the most interesting races of the last years. There are 3 spots that could go to 6-7 viable contenders. Also, there is not a clear frontrunner for the big win. In fact, there are 4 movies still in the run for BP. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I think Triangle of Sadness still has a LOT of potential to play well with this academy, especially with how well it's doing with European audiences. I'm not even ruling out it making it into the BAFTA five. I'd give it the edge over Aftersun to be the English European film to make it over (ugh). THAT BEING SAID....I think Wells is going to pull a Hamaguchi/Pawlikowski and make it into director after a BAFTA nomination. Pretty much safe Avatar: The Way of Water The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Tar Top Gun: Maverick Pick three of these I guess Aftersun All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon Triangle of Sadness The Whale Women Talking Of these....I'll say All Quiet, Whale, and Women Talking. With Triangle of Sadness as my alternate pick. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 BAFTA nominations: BEST FILM ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Malte Grunert THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh ELVIS Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang TÁR Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan DIRECTOR ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Edward Berger THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Martin McDonagh DECISION TO LEAVE Park Chan-wook EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert TÁR Todd Field THE WOMAN KING Gina Prince-Bythewood LEADING ACTRESS CATE BLANCHETT Tár VIOLA DAVIS The Woman King DANIELLE DEADWYLER Till ANA DE ARMAS Blonde EMMA THOMPSON Good Luck to You, Leo Grande MICHELLE YEOH Everything Everywhere All At Once LEADING ACTOR AUSTIN BUTLER Elvis COLIN FARRELL The Banshees of Inisherin BRENDAN FRASER The Whale DARYL McCORMACK Good Luck to You, Leo Grande PAUL MESCAL Aftersun BILL NIGHY Living SUPPORTING ACTRESS ANGELA BASSETT Black Panther: Wakanda Forever HONG CHAU The Whale KERRY CONDON The Banshees of Inisherin DOLLY DE LEON Triangle of Sadness JAMIE LEE CURTIS Everything Everywhere All At Once CAREY MULLIGAN She Said SUPPORTING ACTOR BRENDAN GLEESONThe Banshees of Inisherin BARRY KEOGHAN The Banshees of Inisherin KE HUY QUAN Everything Everywhere All At Once EDDIE REDMAYNE The Good Nurse ALBRECHT SCHUCH All Quiet on the Western Front MICHEAL WARD Empire of Light ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Martin McDonagh EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert THE FABELMANS Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg TÁR Todd Field TRIANGLE OF SADNESS Ruben Östlund ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell LIVING Kazuo Ishiguro THE QUIET GIRL Colm Bairéad SHE SAID Rebecca Lenkiewicz THE WHALE Samuel D. Hunter OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM AFTERSUN Charlotte Wells, Producer(s) TBC THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin BRIAN AND CHARLES Jim Archer, Rupert Majendie, David Earl, Chris Hayward EMPIRE OF LIGHT Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris GOOD LUCK TO YOU, LEO GRANDE Sophie Hyde, Debbie Gray, Adrian Politowski, Katy Brand LIVING Oliver Hermanus, Elizabeth Karlsen, Stephen Woolley, Kazuo Ishiguro ROALD DAHL’S MATILDA THE MUSICAL Matthew Warchus, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Jon Finn, Luke Kelly, Dennis Kelly SEE HOW THEY RUN Tom George, Gina Carter, Damian Jones, Mark Chappell THE SWIMMERS Sally El Hosaini, Producer(s) TBC, Jack Thorne THE WONDER Sebastián Lelio, Ed Guiney, Juliette Howell, Andrew Lowe, Tessa Ross, Alice Birch, Emma Donoghue OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER AFTERSUN Charlotte Wells (Writer/Director) BLUE JEAN Georgia Oakley (Writer/Director), Hélène Sifre (Producer) ELECTRIC MALADY Marie Lidén (Director) GOOD LUCK TO YOU, LEO GRANDE Katy Brand (Writer) REBELLION Maia Kenworthy (Director) FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Edward Berger, Malte Grunert ARGENTINA, 1985 Santiago Mitre, Producer(s) TBC CORSAGE Marie Kreutzer DECISION TO LEAVE Park Chan-wook, Ko Dae-seok THE QUIET GIRL Colm Bairéad, Cleona Ní Chrualaoí DOCUMENTARY ALL THAT BREATHES Shaunak Sen, Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons FIRE OF LOVE Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, Ina Fichman MOONAGE DAYDREAM Brett Morgan NAVALNY Daniel Roher, Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae ANIMATED FILM GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, Alex Bulkley MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON Dean Fleisher Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Paul Mezey PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH Joel Crawford, Mark Swift TURNING RED Domee Shi, Lindsey Collins ORIGINAL SCORE ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Volker Bertelmann BABYLON Justin Hurwitz THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Carter Burwell EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Son Lux GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Alexandre Desplat CASTING AFTERSUN Lucy Pardee ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Simone Bär ELVIS Nikki Barrett, Denise Chamian EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Sarah Halley Finn TRIANGLE OF SADNESS Pauline Hansson CINEMATOGRAPHY ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT James Friend THE BATMAN Greig Fraser ELVIS Mandy Walker EMPIRE OF LIGHT Roger Deakins TOP GUN: MAVERICK Claudio Miranda EDITING ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Sven Budelmann THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Mikkel E. G. Nielsen ELVIS Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Paul Rogers TOP GUN: MAVERICK Eddie Hamilton PRODUCTION DESIGN ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Christian M. Goldbreck, Ernestine Hipper BABYLON Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino THE BATMAN James Chinlund, Lee Sandales ELVIS Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Curt Enderle, Guy Davis COSTUME DESIGN ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Lisy Christl AMSTERDAM J.R. Hawbaker, Albert Wolsky BABYLON Mary Zophres ELVIS Catherine Martin MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS Jenny Beavan MAKE UP & HAIR ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Heike Merker THE BATMAN Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, Zoe Tahir ELVIS Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, Shane Thomas ROALD DAHL’S MATILDA THE MUSICAL Naomi Donne, Barrie Gower, Sharon Martin THE WHALE Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, Adrien Morot SOUND ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Lars Ginzsel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, Markus Stemler AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, Gwendoyln Yates Whittle ELVIS Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, Wayne Pashley TÁR Deb Adair, Stephen Griffiths, Andy Shelley, Steve Single, Roland Winke TOP GUN: MAVERICK Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, Mark Weingarten SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller, Frank Petzoid AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon THE BATMAN Russell Earl, Dan Lemmon, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohy EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Benjamin Brewer, Ethan Feldbau, Jonathan Kombrinck, Zak Stoltz TOP GUN: MAVERICK Seth Hill, Scott R. Fisher, Bryan Litson, Ryan Tudhope BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE Peter Baynton, Charlie Mackesy, Cara Speller, Hannah Minghella MIDDLE WATCH John Stevenson, Aiesha Penwarden, Giles Healy YOUR MOUNTAIN IS WAITING Hannah Jacobs, Zoe Muslim, Harriet Gillian BRITISH SHORT FILM THE BALLAD OF OLIVE MORRIS Alex Kayode-Kay BAZIGAGA Jo Ingabire Moys, Stephanie Charmail BUS GIRL Jessica Henwick, Louise Palmkvist Hansen A DRIFTING UP Jacob Lee AN IRISH GOODBYE Tom Berkeley, Ross White EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public) AIMEE LOU WOOD DARYL McCORMACK EMMA MACKEY NAOMI ACKIE SHEILA ATIM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Final predictions: 1. Everything Everywhere All At Once 2. The Banshees of Inisherin 3. The Fabelmans 4. TAR 5. Elvis 6. Top Gun: Maverick 7. Avatar: The Way of Water 8. The Whale 9. All Quiet on the Western Front 10. Triangle of Sadness ALT: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Fablemans was almost completely shut out and TGM underperformance means their BP win bid is slipping away from clear frontrunner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) Locking these in now. Let's go. NGNG predictions: RRR makes it into picture after all. Ana De Armas replaces Davis in Best Actress - I think Williams makes it in after all and I fear she's the most vulnerable. No Close in International Film No Fire of Love in Documentary 'She Said' completely shut out No John Williams Spoiler BEST PICTURE All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans RRR Tar Top Gun: Maverick The Whale BEST DIRECTOR Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) Daniels (Everything Everywhere all At Once) Todd Field (Tar) Martin McDonaugh (The Banshees of Inisherin) Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) BEST ACTRESS Cate Blanchett (Tar) Ana De Armas (Blonde) Danielle Deadwyler (Till) Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) BEST ACTOR Austin Butler (Elvis) Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) Brendan Fraser (The Whale) Paul Mescal (Aftersun) Bill Nighy (Living) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) Hong Chau (The Whale) Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front) BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All at Once The Fabelmans Tar Triangle of Sadness BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Living The Whale Women Talking BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Bardo The Batman Top Gun: Maverick BEST FILM EDITING All Quiet on the Western Front The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once Top Gun: Maverick BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Avatar: The Way of Water Babylon Elvis The Fabelmans Everything Everywhere All at Once BEST COSTUME DESIGN Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Babylon Elvis The Fabelmans Mrs. Harris Goes To Parris BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING All Quiet on the Western Front The Batman Blonde Elvis The Whale BEST VISUAL EFFECTS All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Batman Jurassic World: Dominion Top Gun: Maverick BEST SOUND All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once Top Gun: Maverick BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio The Woman King Women Talking BEST ORIGINAL SONG “Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) “Ciao Papa” (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio) “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) “Naatu Naatu” (RRR) BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio Marcel the Shell with Shoes On My Father’s Dragon Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Turning Red BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE All That Breathes All the Beauty and the Bloodshed Bad Axe Descendant Navalny BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE All Quiet on the Western Front Argentina, 1985 Decision to Leave EO The Quiet Girl Edited January 23, 2023 by Ezen Baklattan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 On 1/20/2023 at 7:15 PM, titanic2187 said: Fablemans was almost completely shut out and TGM underperformance means their BP win bid is slipping away from clear frontrunner. Neither were front runner imo. It's between EEAAO and Banshees with EEAAO the frontrunner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 50 minutes ago, Maggie said: Neither were front runner imo. It's between EEAAO and Banshees with EEAAO the frontrunner Before BAFTA, I always see EEAAO, Fabelmans and Banshees as top 3 contenders given their consistent presence across guild and award shows. And don't forget Coda won last year when it missed BAFTA best picture and best director nom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) You can make the case Fabelmans is now 6th behind TAR/Elvis/Top Gun. When the Globes are the only group you aren't underperforming at... The BAFTA miss hurts Top Gun too but it still had a good below the line showing there + all its guild nominations. Edited January 22, 2023 by WrathOfHan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
