THE BATMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 134M OW DOM, 258.2M WW | Biggest WB opening since BvS. First non Disney-affiliated 100M OW since 2018

[LVB]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Well while we wait for numbers anyone who saw The Batman care to rank their top 5 Batman movies?

 

1. Batman Begins
2. The Dark Knight
3. Mask of the Phantasm
4. The Batman
5. Batman 89

[EmpireCity]

23 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Yea... let’s just say this ended up being FAR more walkup heavy than I ever would have thought  If this keeps up over the entire weekend... we’re in for a treat.

 

I'm seeing the exact same thing.  

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

27 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Well while we wait for numbers anyone who saw The Batman care to rank their top 5 Batman movies?

1. The Dark Knight

2. The Batman

3. Batman 89

4. Mask of the Phantasm

5. Batman Begins

---

Also for the hell of it..

6. Batman Forever

7. Batman Returns

8. Dark Knight Rises

9. Batman 66

10. LEGO Batman

11. BVS

12. Batman and Robin

[AdrianL]

The movie is even better on 2nd viewing. It's incredible. 

[Chrysaor]

1. The Dark Knight

2. The Batman (Probably? Ask me again after I’ve had time to fully digest it)

3. The Lego Batman movie

4. Batman Begins

5. The Dark Knight Rises

——

Also for the hell of it, also

6. Batman 89

7. Mask of the Phantasm (I know, I was probably the one kid in the world who thinks that this one while not bad, is severely overrated and now I’m the one adult in the world who thinks that).

8. Batman Returns

9. Batman v Superman (This is a bad movie, don’t get me wrong but I really think that Ben Affleck, while not a great Batman, is a fantastic Bruce Wayne here and that Batmobile chase is one for the books)

10. Batman 66 (Probably? It’s the only one that I haven’t seen in so long that I’m hazy about my feelings on it)

<Justice League, if we want to include that>

11. Batman Forever

12. Batman & Robin

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Chrysaor

[hw64]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Yea... let’s just say this ended up being FAR more walkup heavy than I ever would have thought  If this keeps up over the entire weekend... we’re in for a treat.

 

If this ends up being true, then let it be a lesson for certain people in the tracking thread who have gotten high off of their own numbers over the past few weeks. There's been way too much self-confidence bordering on cockiness about the data, which some seem to think is infallible and the be-all and end-all for opening weekend predictions.

 

I think some people seem to have forgotten, in the face of the last 9 months where a lot of the big domestic blockbusters were well-behaved and predictable Marvel movies, that despite the increased prevalence of presales, unpredictable and highly variable walkups still make up a big percentage of the opening weekend, especially for movies which aren't as presales-driven as Marvel movies (i.e. pretty much all movies except Star Wars movies).

 

I feel like this needs to be said regardless of whether The Batman exceeds presales-based expectations or not, because relying so heavily on presales data is going to eventually bite people hard anyway. Hopefully it is The Batman that gets to knock people down a peg, because the lesson is best learned sooner rather than later.

Edited March 4, 2022 by hw64

[Knights of Ren]

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

If this ends up being true, then let it be a lesson for certain people in the tracking thread who have gotten high off of their own numbers over the past few weeks. There's been way too much self-confidence bordering on cockiness about the data, which some seem to think is infallible and the be-all and end-all for opening weekend predictions.

 

I think some people seem to have forgotten, in the face of the last 9 months where a lot of the big domestic blockbusters were well-behaved and predictable Marvel movies, that despite the increased prevalence of presales, unpredictable and highly variable walkups still make up a big percentage of the opening weekend, especially for movies which aren't as presales-driven as Marvel movies (i.e. pretty much all movies except Star Wars movies).

 

I feel like this needs to be said regardless of whether The Batman exceeds presales-based expectations or not, because relying so heavily on presales data is going to eventually bite people hard anyway. Hopefully it is The Batman that gets to knock people down a peg, because the lesson is best learned sooner rather than later.

Couldn't have said it better.   You spilled the truth!

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

If this ends up being true, then let it be a lesson for certain people in the tracking thread who have gotten high off of their own numbers over the past few weeks. There's been way too much self-confidence bordering on cockiness about the data, which some seem to think is infallible and the be-all and end-all for opening weekend predictions.

 

 

Tell me, is there a different Tracking thread on this board that I'm not aware of?  Coz when it came to the actual trackers most of us equivocated and gave reasons why things might be up in the air.  Don't confuse commentary in the Tracking thread by folks interpreting the numbers various trackers post with the actual tracking posts.

 

Like, do you want me to quote every tracking post made today?  I can, you know.

 

...

 

Actually, probably shouldn't as I suspect that'd make the Staff frown more than a little.  Instead I will simply note: Don't confuse all of the commentary in the Tracking thread from the actual tracking posts, s'il vous plaît.

[Porthos]

I also want to add, @hw64, that there was quite a vigorous debate in the Tracking thread about what sort of IM might occur if the preview number came in low before it (rightly IMO) got short circuited by the Staff for being off topic.  It most certainly wasn't seen as and I directly quote you here:

 

15 minutes ago, hw64 said:

infallible and the be-all and end-all for opening weekend predictions.

 

Where the Tracking thread flew off the rails this evening was folks coming in and, frankly IMO, massively over-reacting to ONE offhand comment about a range of the OW by one poster.

 

====

 

Finally and I know I'm am ONLY speaking for myself here, I can say I most certainly do NOT think the Tracking Thread is in any way shape or form the End All And Be All of Opening Weekend Tracking, especially in the case of a film like The Batman that has so many different conflicting variables. 

 

I do tend to think we're better than many when it comes to Thursday Previews, yes. But even there I recognize the shortcomings of our little hobby when it comes to previews.  Almost famously so, given how much I tend to equivocate when it comes to my Tracking reports.  From what I've seen, most of the other actual trackers tend to be fairly similar.

 

*ends mini-rant*

[Legion Again]

Feels like a strawman. People are aware that things *can* go sideways (positively or negatively). That’s why you get your “probably”s, your “looks like”s, your “present outlook X-Y but see how it goes”s. On the other hand, things usually don’t go outside of regular trends. That is what makes them regular trends. Our trackers have been absolutely killing it for years and years, even and perhaps especially during the volatile conditions of the pandemic. So let’s nip this “people are too obsessed with presales” narrative in the bud. It’s the info that is available, use a little discretion, but it’s extremely valuable especially for big releases.

[hw64]

29 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Instead I will simply note: Don't confuse all of the commentary in the Tracking thread from the actual tracking posts, s'il vous plaît.

 

I'm not criticizing the trackers — they do good work, and the numbers are a useful starting point and an important factor to consider when making predictions. I'm criticizing some people's interpretation of the presales data, and in particular, the huge significance that's been placed on the data since tracking restarted, so much so that they seem now to be the only factor some people consider when making opening weekend predictions — the sort of mindset that says that if the presales aren't up to par, then it's literally impossible for a movie to have a good opening weekend.

 

Of course, this is hyperbole, but that's what it feels like people think with how little people are prepared to deviate from the presales trends with their opening weekend predictions. I need only point to you the mini-meltdowns and panic that happened earlier in the tracking thread when the presales weren't increasing as expected for The Batman as evidence of the sort of significance people have placed on them.

Edited March 4, 2022 by hw64

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

Feels like a strawman.

Guess a self quote will suffice  

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Seems like walk ups went through the roof in Greece as well. Every single of these screen things you are booking tickets on the spot were occupied by people for The Batman. The theater actually added lots of last minutes showings as well and it's quite remarkable the amount of showing given its runtime.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I'm not criticizing the trackers — they do good work, and the numbers are a useful starting point and an important factor to consider when making predictions. I'm criticizing some people's interpretation of the presales data, and in particular, the huge significance that's been placed on the data since tracking restarted, so much so that they seem now to be the only factor some people consider when making opening weekend predictions — the sort of mindset that says that if the presales aren't up to par, then it's literally impossible for a movie to have a good opening weekend.

 

Except the folks who regularly comment on the Tracking thread also famously disagree with each other over what the pre-sale data actually portends.

 

Enough so that every once in a while, the mods have to come buy and shut us all up.

 

Sure, there may be some people who are, oh let's say "more self-assured than others" when it comes to interpreting data and aren't afraid to let others know it.

 

Not exactly much different from every other thread on this forum, or indeed much of the internet then.

 

I mean, don't get me wrong.  I tend to think we could all be more humble and aware of potential pitfalls.  I just like to think that within the actual Tracking thread "community" there is far more debate and disagreement than some folks give us credit for.

 

====

 

Not only that, but from what I've seen, the "regulars" in the Tracking thread are usually one of the first to sit up and applaud when something surprises us.  Like, say, our collective reaction to Uncharted last week or Free Guy last year.  Frankly this'd be boring hobby if we really could predict OW's that well simply off of pre-sale data.

 

I guess I am saying I tend to think that if The Batman busts out this weekend like I personally think it might, almost all of the regular commenters in the Tracking thread will be cheering along with it.

 

...

 

Unless it blows up their Derby.  Then all bets are off.

 

[Fox20]

1 hour ago, hw64 said:

 

If this ends up being true, then let it be a lesson for certain people in the tracking thread who have gotten high off of their own numbers over the past few weeks. There's been way too much self-confidence bordering on cockiness about the data, which some seem to think is infallible and the be-all and end-all for opening weekend predictions.

 

I think some people seem to have forgotten, in the face of the last 9 months where a lot of the big domestic blockbusters were well-behaved and predictable Marvel movies, that despite the increased prevalence of presales, unpredictable and highly variable walkups still make up a big percentage of the opening weekend, especially for movies which aren't as presales-driven as Marvel movies (i.e. pretty much all movies except Star Wars movies).

 

I feel like this needs to be said regardless of whether The Batman exceeds presales-based expectations or not, because relying so heavily on presales data is going to eventually bite people hard anyway. Hopefully it is The Batman that gets to knock people down a peg, because the lesson is best learned sooner rather than later.

All this because they are not overpredicting your fave franchise?

[peludo]

9 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Seems like walk ups went through the roof in Greece as well. Every single of these screen things you are booking tickets on the spot were occupied by people for The Batman. The theater actually added lots of last minutes showings as well and it's quite remarkable the amount of showing given its runtime.

Same in Spain. The theater which I usually track has 20 showings today. For reference, Joker had 16 on its OD with 1 hour less of runtime, and Joker already opened higher than the usual CBM film here.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

2 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Well while we wait for numbers anyone who saw The Batman care to rank their top 5 Batman movies?

1. The Dark Knight

2.The Batman 

3.Batman v Superman UE

4.Batman Begins

5. The Dark Knight Rises 

 

First two are equal. Didn't consider ZSJL.

[hw64]

41 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Sure, there may be some people who are, oh let's say "more self-assured than others" when it comes to interpreting data and aren't afraid to let others know it.

 

Not exactly much different from every other thread on this forum, or indeed much of the internet then.

 

I mean, don't get me wrong.  I tend to think we could all be more humble and aware of potential pitfalls.  I just like to think that within the actual Tracking thread "community" there is far more debate and disagreement than some folks give us credit for.

 

Thanks. As I say, I'm not trying to indict the entire tracking community, just this mentality that pervades among certain users who try to interpret the tracking data.

 

What I'm really advocating for is a bit more humility in these users about the potential shortcomings of presales-driven predictions, and perhaps a bit more bravery (where's it's warranted and appropriate) from the general userbase in spite of the presales data. I don't think I've seen really anyone outside of @excel1 (or at least, anyone loud) breaking the mold when it comes to The Batman OW predictions — the presales data seems to have made everyone afraid of going against the grain.

  

28 minutes ago, Fox20 said:

All this because they are not overpredicting your fave franchise?

 

Really? To my knowledge, I've never posted in a DC thread on this forum, nor have I ever even mentioned a DC movie in a post outside of this thread. The only DC movies I've seen are Batman Begins, The Dark Knight, and (regrettably) The Dark Knight Rises. I doubt I'll be seeing The Batman, at least in theaters. I am not a DC fan, at all. Where does this baseless accusation come from?

Edited March 4, 2022 by hw64

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, hw64 said:

What I'm really advocating for is a bit more humility in these users about the potential shortcomings of presales-driven predictions, and perhaps a bit more bravery (where's it's warranted and appropriate) from the general userbase in spite of the presales data. I don't think I've seen really anyone outside of @excel1 (or at least, anyone loud) breaking the mold when it comes to The Batman OW predictions — the presales data seems to have made everyone afraid of going against the grain.

 

 

I don't want to get into a long debate about the perceptions of the Tracking thread coz, like, we all got our own personal opinions, right?  Shaped by our own experiences and what not. I do generally agree with being more open to outside-the-box thinking, sure. 

 

What I will say is that I do tend to think that a LOT of the more common complaints about Tracking thread could be lessened if folks just used the WeekDAY threads a little more to talk about various predictions/thoughts about the upcoming weekend releases and the resulting discussion around all of that and didn't treat the Tracking thread as a General Box Office Conversation Thread. 

 

I ***know*** this thought of mine isn't shared by everyone, and that's fine. Like, folks see posts about data in the Tracking thread and it is absolutely natural to want to discuss it in that thread. Which will then lead folks to want to discuss that discussion.

 

I just think that during the pandemic the amount of conversation in WeekDAY threads plummeted (for fairly obvious reasons) and some of it floated over to the Tracking thread as that was one of the few threads that could see semi-constant chatter and new things to talk about thanks to an increase in tracking activity. 

 

Like, there use to be a lot more discussion over weekday trends of films, but since they were so low for such a long time (not to mention studios like WB not releasing info), conversation in the Weekday threads just withered and it has been a bit more commonplace to talk in the Tracking thread.  And since the Tracking thread, by definition, is more data-centered than other threads, it'll tend to be more analytical than a General Box Office Conversation thread really should be. 

 

Not that there isn't discussion in the Weekday threads, as there is.  But, and I don't think I'm exactly making a controversial point when I note that its overall activity is much much less than it once was, unless there is a massive blockbuster to talk about.  Hell, once upon a time we actually had enough discussion in them to regularly have daily weekday threads.  

 

So, I mean, I dunno. This ain't exactly the first time I've brought up this point, and it probably won't be the last.  I just suppose, ultimately, we need more General Conversation About Box Office in other threads besides the Tracking Thread.  That way it won't really matter all that much if it is a bit more analytical than some other threads, even if we remember over there to be a bit more outside-the-box in our thinking occasionally.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Porthos

[EmpireCity]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I don't want to get into a long debate about the perceptions of the Tracking thread coz, like, we all got our own personal opinions, right?  Shaped by our own experiences and what not. I do generally agree with being more open to outside-the-box thinking, sure. 

 

What I will say is that I do tend to think that a LOT of the more common complaints about Tracking thread could be lessened if folks just used the WeekDAY threads a little more to talk about various predictions/thoughts about the upcoming weekend releases and the resulting discussion around all of that and didn't treat the Tracking thread as a General Box Office Conversation Thread. 

 

I ***know*** this thought of mine isn't shared by everyone, and that's fine. Like, folks see posts about data in the Tracking thread and it is absolutely natural to want to discuss it in that thread. Which will then lead folks to want to discuss that discussion.

 

I just think that during the pandemic the amount of conversation in WeekDAY threads plummeted (for fairly obvious reasons) and some of it floated over to the Tracking thread as that was one of the few threads that could see semi-constant chatter and new things to talk about thanks to an increase in tracking activity. 

 

Like, there use to be a lot more discussion over weekday trends of films, but since they were so low for such a long time (not to mention studios like WB not releasing info), conversation in the Weekday threads just withered and it has been a bit more commonplace to talk in the Tracking thread.  And since the Tracking thread, by definition, is more data-centered than other threads, it'll tend to be more analytical than a General Box Office Conversation thread really should be. 

 

Not that there isn't discussion in the Weekday threads, as there is.  But, and I don't think I'm exactly making a controversial point when I note that its overall activity is much much less than it once was, unless there is a massive blockbuster to talk about.  Hell, once upon a time we actually had enough discussion in them to regularly have daily weekday threads.  

 

So, I mean, I dunno. This ain't exactly the first time I've brought up this point, and it probably won't be the last.  I just suppose, ultimately, we need more General Conversation About Box Office in other threads besides the Tracking Thread.  That way it won't really matter all that much if it is a bit more analytical than some other threads, even if we remember over there to be a bit more outside-the-box in our thinking occasionally.