Weekend thread (3/11 - 3/13) | The Batman 66M. 50% drop, 2nd-biggest second weekend for WB | Uncharted 9.25, BTS 6.85, Dog 5.35, NWH 4.07

[Krissykins]

Disney spent more on TV ads for Turning Red than they did for Jungle Cruise and Cruella. 

 

“iSpot shows that Disney spent $23M for U.S. TV spots. That’s as much as they spent for Black Widow, and more than Jungle Cruise ($19.5M), Cruella ($12.6M) and what Netflix spent on Red Notice ads ($3.3M), that streamer’s most watched movie ever.”

 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

39 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Any data on how many tickets The Batman has sold domestically?

 

Hard data, no. Should be about 15-16 million through Friday though. 

[CJohn]

Batman was good. RPATZ and Zoe were too damn fucking hot. Like, illegal kind of hot.

[Grebacio]

33 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Disney spent more on TV ads for Turning Red than they did for Jungle Cruise and Cruella. 

 

“iSpot shows that Disney spent $23M for U.S. TV spots. That’s as much as they spent for Black Widow, and more than Jungle Cruise ($19.5M), Cruella ($12.6M) and what Netflix spent on Red Notice ads ($3.3M), that streamer’s most watched movie ever.”

 

 

 

Dumb question, but how do they spend that much on spots if they own a lot of channels?

[TiagoRodrigues]

 

Uncharted's projections keep going up following the lack on that expected huge decrease after Batman release.

Insane how there's market right now for Uncharted to still do these numbers and even Spider-Man to have those small decreases.

I don't expect 10M this weekend for it...that would be insane. But if it manages 9M would be huge, IMO.

 

Overall projections keep increasing week after week btw: 135-145M now. Without huge movies i can see Batman and Uncharted to keep these great holds tbh. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

Dumb question, but how do they spend that much on spots if they own a lot of channels?

 

Advertising isn't free even on your "own" channels.  People who work at ad agencies gotta eat too, you know.

 

Plus even with the reach of Disney, whole lotta of other channels out there.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Advertising isn't free even on your "own" channels.  People who work at ad agencies gotta eat too, you know.

 

Plus even with the reach of Disney, whole lotta of other channels out there.

 

Speaking as someone who isn't intimately familiar with the inner workings of TV machinery, even if Pixar Marketing doesn't write a check to the Ad Division of ESPN (and that is not a bet I would want to make), that's still lost revenue for the Ad Division of ESPN as they don't get to sell that ad space time to someone else.

 

To make it simple, even if Pixar doesn't write a 100k check to ESPN for a 30 sec ad spot, that's a 100k check that ESPN doesn't get from someone else that they could have put in that ad slot.

 

Now, yes, I'm sure it is a hell of a lot more complicated than that with set asides for network/branding promotions, among other things.  Just pointing out that even if something is given away for "free" that means that it isn't being sold to someone else.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

 

You do know that every family movie besides Sing 2 bombed the past couple of years, right? And even that movie's gross is pretty mediocre, saved by its tiny budget. And Disney+ also needs content for March until Moon Knight is ready. A very obvious choice in hindsight.

You've said this like 18 times in the last day

[Caylu]

The increase on Friday is across the board for almost all the movies. For Top 7 its more than 120% for each,which i don't think i have seen ever before. Is there any special deal going on or special period of the year. 

What is the reason?

 

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	(1)	The Batman	Warner Bros.	$18,700,000	+121%	-67%	4,417	$4,234	$191,220,826	8
2	(2)	Uncharted	Sony Pictures	$2,425,000	+159%	-19%	3,725	$651	$106,530,790	22
3	(3)	Dog	United Artists	$1,383,889	+138%	-13%	3,407	$406	$43,840,991	22
-	(4)	Spider-Man: No Way Home	Sony Pictures	$960,000	+140%	-11%	2,702	$355	$789,170,954	85
-	(5)	Death on the Nile	20th Century…	$680,000	+125%	-13%	2,450	$278	$38,976,574	29
-	(7)	Sing 2	Universal	$330,000	+138%	-2%	1,988	$166	$154,575,000	80

[Legion Again]

Fridays all fairly as expected, hopefully snowstorm doesn’t fuck my derby up too much.

[AnDr3s]

anyone knows whats the break even point for the batman?

[Skim Beeble]

I'm curious as to how the BTS thing will do this weekend.

[Steele131]

19 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

anyone knows whats the break even point for the batman?

I’d say 350-400M ish. 

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, Caylu said:

The increase on Friday is across the board for almost all the movies. For Top 7 its more than 120% for each,which i don't think i have seen ever before. Is there any special deal going on or special period of the year. 

What is the reason?

 

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	(1)	The Batman	Warner Bros.	$18,700,000	+121%	-67%	4,417	$4,234	$191,220,826	8
2	(2)	Uncharted	Sony Pictures	$2,425,000	+159%	-19%	3,725	$651	$106,530,790	22
3	(3)	Dog	United Artists	$1,383,889	+138%	-13%	3,407	$406	$43,840,991	22
-	(4)	Spider-Man: No Way Home	Sony Pictures	$960,000	+140%	-11%	2,702	$355	$789,170,954	85
-	(5)	Death on the Nile	20th Century…	$680,000	+125%	-13%	2,450	$278	$38,976,574	29
-	(7)	Sing 2	Universal	$330,000	+138%	-2%	1,988	$166	$154,575,000	80

Its normal. No big / new releases taking screens and no holiday during the week / weekend to skew it. If anything the family films are "lower" due to Spring break starting up and business being spread. 

[XXR vs XXR]

50 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

anyone knows whats the break even point for the batman?

 

Totally cost to make + market it is about $350-400M. So they would need roughly 2.5x that to breakeven (across all platforms, not just box office). 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

MARCH 11-13:

 

1. "The Batman" - 63.9 / 236.4

2. "Uncharted" - 8.9 / 113.2

3. "Dog" - 5.0 / 47.4

4. "Spider Man: NWH" - 3.9 / 792.1

5. "Radhe Shyam" - 1.3

6. "Death On the Nile" - 2.1 / 40.4

7. "Sing 2" - 1.4 / 155.7

8. "Jackass Forever" - 1.0 / 56.2

9. "Scream" - 0.4 / 80.9

10. "Cyrano" - 0.4 / 3.3

11. "Marry Me" - 0.3 / 22.0

12. "Licorice Pizza" - 0.2 / 16.7

13. "Tyson's Run" - 0.2

14. "The Worst Person in the World" - 0.2 / 2.6

15. "Oscar Nominated Shorts" - 0.2 / 1.2

16. "Blacklight" - 0.1 / 9.4

17. "Encanto" - 0.1 / 95.8

18. "Belfast" - 0.1 / 8.9

19. "West Side Story" - 0.1 / 38.4

20. "The Cursed" - 0.1 / 4.5

[Holidaycheer]

21 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:

 

Totally cost to make + market it is about $350-400M. So they would need roughly 2.5x that to breakeven (across all platforms, not just box office). 

Why would it not need $350-$400m to break even if that’s how much it all costs? Why does it need to make almost a billion to break even? I’m not sure I understand this math? 

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, Holidaycheer said:

Why would it not need $350-$400m to break even if that’s how much it all costs? Why does it need to make almost a billion to break even? I’m not sure I understand this math? 

Marketing, plus studios don’t get 100% of box office revenue.

 

That being said, some people tend to inflate how much a movie “needs” to make (and I’m not even getting into Hollywood accounting).

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, Holidaycheer said:

Why would it not need $350-$400m to break even if that’s how much it all costs? Why does it need to make almost a billion to break even? I’m not sure I understand this math? 

 

Because box office does not equal profit. WB will get less than half of it's total box office (40-45% globally) and gross profit margin from other sources (VOD, HBO Max) will be even lower.

 

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Marketing, plus studios don’t get 100% of box office revenue.

 

That being said, some people tend to inflate how much a movie “needs” to make (and I’m not even getting into Hollywood accounting).

 

Also true but without getting into all of that, it's just simple enough to say 2.5x the total cost in box office/revenue. Since we don't know all of the "funny math" they use behind the scenes and when and where they will take certain tax breaks, etc etc. 

[grim22]

18 minutes ago, Holidaycheer said:

Why would it not need $350-$400m to break even if that’s how much it all costs? Why does it need to make almost a billion to break even? I’m not sure I understand this math? 

The really easy rule of thumb is to not include marketing, the moment anyone includes marketing as part of break even calculation that's when you see an agenda come in.. Marketing has way too many offsets.

 

The thing to look for is 2.5x production budget. If a movie gets there, it's safe and broken even. (Not accounting for Hollywood accounting trickery)