April 22-24th Weekend thread | Northman conquers $5m Friday, Mr. Wolf’s fine ass and The Bad Guys steal $8m, and Unbearable Talent has an unbearable start at $3m

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

You all went insane with The Bad Guys or what lmao? This will lead to a cool 20M OW. Northman also seems strong. 16-17M OW can happen.

Not really. The Bad Guys started previews at 5 pm instead of like 3-4 pm with less than usual showings, not to mention skew more family friendly and likely more female than Sonic. Using the same multiples as other comparisons like Addams Family 2 ($30.9m), Addams 1 ($27.6m), Abominable ($35m) and Encanto ($30.66m using the five day/previews) seems at least $25m+ OW is likely. I didn’t use Clifford and Boss Baby due to day and date interference. (Addams 2 was also day and date but there’s a huge difference between being free on a service and paying $20 to rent factoring in grosses, otherwise it’d behave more like Boss Baby 2 or Space Jam)

Edited April 22, 2022 by YourMother

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Sir Tiki said:

Read the title originally as the Northman conquering both $1.4 million and Mr. Wolf's fine ass.

Can’t it be both.

[Eric Duncan]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

You all went insane with The Bad Guys or what lmao? This will lead to a cool 20M OW. Northman also seems strong. 16-17M OW can happen.

Addams Family 2 got a 31.5x IM. Ron's Gone Wrong got a 30.4x IM. Those preview #s were a lot smaller granted, but I don't see why this would be that much different. 30M would take a 26.1x IM, which sounds about right. Dreamworks fandom isn't really a thing anymore, at least compared to Disney/Pixar.

[CJohn]

This weekend might make me go from team "theaters be dead" to "theaters be damn alive and well".

 

We can all thank a single movie for all of this shit, never forget who put buts in the fucking seats all the way back in the Spring of 2021 and filled the Summer schedule in the process. Bless the kings (if this weekend goes well of course, if not fuck them).

Spoiler

 

[Grebacio]

Just now, CJohn said:

This weekend might make me go from team "theaters be dead" to "theaters be damn alive and well".

 

We can all thank a single movie for all of this shit, never forget who put buts in the fucking seats all the way back in the Spring of 2021 and filled the Summer schedule in the process. Bless the kings (if this weekend goes well of course, if not fuck them).

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Wrong kings mate
 

Spoiler

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

This weekend might make me go from team "theaters be dead" to "theaters be damn alive and well".

 

We can all thank a single movie for all of this shit, never forget who put buts in the fucking seats all the way back in the Spring of 2021 and filled the Summer schedule in the process. Bless the kings (if this weekend goes well of course, if not fuck them).

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A Robert Eggers movie is going to make almost as much as the latest Bayhem will total in one weekend. This is the new age of cinema.

[CJohn]

Just now, Grebacio said:

Wrong kings mate
 

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Nah, this still performed like shit. It was right after GvK that literally all movies moved into the Summer of 2021. That 50M 5 day OW raised a lot of eyebrows.

[Blaze Heatnix]

10 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Verified Score stand at 77% right now, which is not good but also not awful (for reference, TGK had 63% at the same point). I expect a B-/B

 

Very small sample for the Verified Score, though. It's only based on little more than 100 votes. I assume most of these votes are from fans and people who enjoyed the director's previous works. Many of them praise the director for keeping the style from previous works. 

 

General audiences might not feel the need to rush to Rotten Tomatoes. 

 

B is impossible imo. No way this movie is getting a grade on the B range.  C+ is my bet for now. Let's wait for the PostTrak exits.

[CJohn]

How much did The Last Duel in previews? Feels like a solid comparison for Northman.

[WorkingonaName]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

A Robert Eggers movie is going to make almost as much as the latest Bayhem will total in one weekend. This is the new age of cinema.

 

Morbius really did change cinema as we know it.

Edited April 22, 2022 by WorkingonaName

[John2015]

by the way, bad CInemascore rating doesn't necessary means bad leg.

 

"Unfaithful" and "Shutter Island" got C+ , but their box office leg were very good.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CJohn said:

How much did The Last Duel in previews? Feels like a solid comparison for Northman.

350k lol. Same multi gets it over 19M

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

350k lol. Same multi gets it over 19M

We can only wish. Gonna set my expectations for 15M and hope for the best.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CJohn said:

We can only wish. Gonna set my expectations for 15M and hope for the best.

I'd expect more frontloading but Northman has large formats so it'll even out imo

[Sandro Mazzola]

17 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Right now I would say:
The Bad Guys - 22-23M

The Northman - 15-16M

Cage nonsense - 9-10M

 

It feels like none of them will be crazy frontloaded.

 

I think you're a bit low on Bad Guys and maybe a bit high on Cage

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The fact that a movie with as little hype as The Bad Guys is possibly set for a $30M+ opening bodes incredibly well for Puss in Boots 2 later this year. If a new IP can pull impressive numbers like these, imagine what an established franchise can do.

[YM!]

If The Bad Guys does 30m+ this weekend, then I think Minions 2 does 75m+, Puss 2 does 30m+ and Mario does like idk a 70m five day. Universal knows how to market animation aggressively. 

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

If The Bad Guys does 30m+ this weekend, then I think Minions 2 does 75m+, Puss 2 does 30m+ and Mario does like idk a 70m five day. Universal knows how to market animation aggressively. 

This is not how it works. Puss in Boots is a dormant franchise. Bad Guys looks new and fresh. I don't think one thing means the other.

[AJG]

Is "everything is doing kinda bad but not as bad as we were expecting" a win?

 

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by AJG

[YM!]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

This is not how it works. Puss in Boots is a dormant franchise. Bad Guys looks new and fresh. I don't think one thing means the other.

I agree Puss in Boots is dormant and the new and fresh look helped for The Bad Guys so far (the weekend still needs to play out and it looks very good). But Universal has done good selling The Bad Guys even though the plot is familiar, Shrek may be dreck now but I think with the right marketing and making Puss look fun enough, it could do surprisingly well.