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Eric S'ennui

Weekend Thread (5/20-22) | DS2 31.6, Downton 16, Bad Guys 6.1, Sonic 3.9, Men (are trash) 3.3

By Eric S'ennui, in Numbers and Data

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Coldbird Cult Classic

Coldbird

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32 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

But the advantage of streaming is that there's no fixed time when you can watch. Once the show/episode drops, you can watch any time, any day, any week, etc. So it's pretty easy to work a trip to the theater into binge schedule. 

 

So doubtful this will have an effect of a major sport event.

 

Also, Obi Wan audience is closer to Top Gun audience than DS2 audience. ST audience skewed older so old fans are still the staple of SW.

I really really doubt Obi Wan has a closer audience to top gun than DS2. Star Wars franchise is too big to just being attributed to the original movies. Its like saying MCU should skew older because the Avengers comic is so old. Especially that the prequels and Obi Wan became that popular in the last years because the kids who watched the prequels are adults now and becoming nostalgic.

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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

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Eric S'ennui Global Phenomenon

Eric S'ennui

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1 hour ago, Maggie said:

wow are older adults still reluctant to go back to theaters?

I've gone on about my reservations about older audiences, and maybe it could have done a bit better, but this is a pretty understandable scenario for Downton Abbey even if older auds were everywhere. Movies like Downton Abbey are super niche, since the only people who are interested in seeing the movie are already fans of the show. If you're not, what's the appeal? And while the first movie opened the way it did since it was the first instance of Downton Abbey content since the show ended, this one doesn't have any other hook, so only the super fans cared to come back. This is the same fall as something like Sex and the City 2 or even Pokémon 2000.

 

 

1 hour ago, Starphanluke said:

What's interesting about DS2 next weekend is that Top Gun may not be targeting that exact same audience, but Stranger Things and Obi Wan are out next weekend, and those do target similar demographics. Will be an interesting test to see if compelling streaming content can actually sway people's theatre-going habits. 

We're still doing this "OMG what if this streaming show hurts this movie" stuff? Okay then.

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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

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Fairly crappy for Downton but as I said Friday it is crappy in the same way as Sex and the City 2 so I am not gonna draw larger conclusions.

 

Elvis is a good one for older audiences. If it gets good reviews out of Cannes this week then that's the one we should draw at least a few conclusions from.

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

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2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

X Men is more of a direct comeptition than Maverick, though, due to higher crossover. Maverick targets Top Gun fans primarily which means skewing older.

Maverick will sell more tickets from the typical superhero demo than Apocalypse did lol. And why are you pretending like it's gonna be just grandpas who are going to watch Maverick? It's going to be big amongst younger folks too.

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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

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VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

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Stranger Things won't have a huge impact on the box office next weekend. Firstly, it's only half the episodes being dropped, while the other half come out in July, so even those that binge it will have plenty of extra time over the long weekend. Also, the audience showing up now for DS2 are the more casual audiences. They are the ones who don't mind waiting a few weeks to see a movie, and thus aren't the type to binge Netflix shows on opening weekend. 

 

The other thing about DS2, is it's in a bit of a Captain Marvel/Endgame calendar situation. As Thor approaches and advertising picks up on that one, those that have meant to see DS2 but haven't yet might be pushed off the fence to go see it. CM obviously had a more direct connection to Endgame, so this effect might now be quite as strong, but still a possibility to help it's late legs. 

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VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

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Bad Guys is really benefitting from lack of animated competition. 

With nothing big for animation coming until Lightyear, and summer weekdays about to kick in very soon, Bad Guys still has a slim chance of making it to 100 million. It will be past 80 million after the long weekend next weekend.

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

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3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Stranger Things won't have a huge impact on the box office next weekend. Firstly, it's only half the episodes being dropped, while the other half come out in July, so even those that binge it will have plenty of extra time over the long weekend. Also, the audience showing up now for DS2 are the more casual audiences. They are the ones who don't mind waiting a few weeks to see a movie, and thus aren't the type to binge Netflix shows on opening weekend. 

 

The other thing about DS2, is it's in a bit of a Captain Marvel/Endgame calendar situation. As Thor approaches and advertising picks up on that one, those that have meant to see DS2 but haven't yet might be pushed off the fence to go see it. CM obviously had a more direct connection to Endgame, so this effect might now be quite as strong, but still a possibility to help it's late legs. 

I agree it won’t have an impact, but the episodes are 90mins each I think, not the usual binge. 

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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Downton Abbey was crazy frontloaded despite the older target audience because these movies are for fans of the show only. The first movie ended up having pretty good staying power though (most likely because the audience for these movies is so old) so we shouldn't rule out this one having good legs too, especially when it's likely going to be in the top 10 until early July with so few wide releases set for the next several weeks.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

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A24 would definitely be wise to give another expansion to Everything Everywhere June 3 (Neon is giving Crimes of the Future a fairly wide release that weekend but that won't be making much regardless). The aforementioned light schedule (4 studio releases in all of June, while July has a grand total of 6) and the fact it's not slowing down means $65-70M isn't outside the realm of possibility at this point.

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