Weekend Thread (5/20-22) | DS2 31.6, Downton 16, Bad Guys 6.1, Sonic 3.9, Men (are trash) 3.3

[Krissykins]

Anyway after Firestarter, Men and Downton Abbey 2 being weak summer movies, I’m expecting nothing less than $100m from Top Gun Maverick. 
 

Booked tickets for Friday. 

[grey ghost]

6 more days until Top Gun 2 beats No Way Home and Endgame. 

[Maggie]

25 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

6 more days until Top Gun 2 beats No Way Home and Endgame. 

Go home, you're drunk!

 

 

 

I know it was supposed to be a joke, but seriously now how much are we expecting for the OW?

Edited May 21, 2022 by Maggie

[Bigscrubnus]

I’m guessing a bit over 100 million for TGM

[ThomasNicole]

15 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Go home, you're drunk!

 

 

 

I know it was supposed to be a joke, but seriously now how much are we expecting for the OW?

It's probably gonna depend if the movie will be frontloaded or not, which is hard to know in this case.

 

15-16M previews seems highly possible, but then it depends on the multi. 

 

If it performs closer to a SH movie, then a bit over 100M 3-days, if performs more like a "normal" movie, it can try 150M.

 

I don't see much reason to expect a frontloaded run, but it's still a sequel so we have to wait.

[ThomasNicole]

For now, JW looks like a 170M opener or so, closer to Fallen Kingdom than the first one.

 

But considering the type of run this franchise usually have, if it's coming to 200M i doubt we'll know it before the week of release.

 

I think 170-175M is a more reasonable expectation, but it still can find it's way to +200M if the final week explode.

[Maggie]

Don;t get me wrong, i'm rooting for it (yes, i made some questionable clubs), but i feel it will be frontloaded. It's a 36 yo sequel with insane hype.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Maggie said:

i'm rooting for it

You are?

 

I always get the feeling you really want this to fail because you keep saying the trailer views are low and young people aren't interested so there wasn't much hype etc. 

 

Which is totally fine, i have my own bias too, it's normal, but i'm a bit surprised lol 

 

But yes, i can see it being frontloaded. I'm not expecting, but it's not something to rule out the possibility.

[Maggie]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

You are?

 

I always get the feeling you really want this to fail because you keep saying the trailer views are low and young people aren't interested so there wasn't much hype etc. 

 

Which is totally fine, i have my own bias too, it's normal, but i'm a bit surprised lol 

 

But yes, i can see it being frontloaded. I'm not expecting, but it's not something to rule out the possibility.

I want all movies to succeed, especially good ones. I may have been circumspect about its BO chances, but i never wanted it to flop.

[Shawn Robbins]

Not sure if reported somewhere else, but I got confirmation that DA2's studio Friday number includes $1.0M Thursday and $900K Wed.

[Shawn Robbins]

Also chiming in on Jurassic chat: tracking among under 18 year-olds is huge. Take that as you will.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Shawn said:

Also chiming in on Jurassic chat: tracking among under 18 year-olds is huge. Take that as you will.

 

Because kids love dinosaurs!

 

And those kids take their siblings, friends and parents to the theaters as well to see those dinosaurs!

 

BOOM: 600M+ DOM!

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Because kids love dinosaurs!

 

And those kids take their siblings, friends and parents to the theaters as well to see those dinosaurs!

 

BOOM: 600M+ DOM!

This is true. My young nephew watches all things dinos on Netflix and other media. I don't know why the kids are so fascinated by dinos, but it's a thing

[Bigscrubnus]

6 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Also chiming in on Jurassic chat: tracking among under 18 year-olds is huge. Take that as you will.

Has your prediction of 183/540 increased at all after the projections increased or no?

[Brainbug]

Just now, Maggie said:

This is true. My young nephew watches all things dinos on Netflix and other media. I don't know why the kids are so fascinated by dinos, but it's a thing

 

As someone who was the biggest dino nerd in my youth (well ... i ... i actually still am ...) i have an explanation for this:

 

Kids love animals and anything animal-related, especially cute ones like cats and dogs, but also, on the other spectrum, big, intimidating ones like elephants, lions etc. Those animals are cool and have that wow-factor. And dinosaurs have that wow-factor multiplied, especially since - unlike dragons for example - they really existed. On top of that, theres tons of shows, movies, documentarys, toys and other things dino-related that kids enjoy immensely.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Has your prediction of 183/540 increased at all after the projections increased or no?

195/554 as of Thursday morning. Increased before I saw any of the aforementioned 18YO tracking. With how optimistic some of the models are, I'm becoming a believer in some big numbers as long as reviews are at least decent.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

195/554 as of Thursday morning. Increased before I saw any of the aforementioned 18YO tracking. With how optimistic some of the models are, I'm becoming a believer in some big numbers as long as reviews are at least decent.

 

Shawn, its not too late to join my club:

 

 

Believe!

[Bigscrubnus]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

195/554 as of Thursday morning. Increased before I saw any of the aforementioned 18YO tracking. With how optimistic some of the models are, I'm becoming a believer in some big numbers as long as reviews are at least decent.

Amazing numbers! Summer winner here we come!

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

It's probably gonna depend if the movie will be frontloaded or not, which is hard to know in this case.

 

15-16M previews seems highly possible, but then it depends on the multi. 

 

If it performs closer to a SH movie, then a bit over 100M 3-days, if performs more like a "normal" movie, it can try 150M.

 

I don't see much reason to expect a frontloaded run, but it's still a sequel so we have to wait.

It opens on Wednesday here and has genuine midnights (00.00). Looking at Wednesday compared to Friday: I’d say expect some frontloading. 
 

 

The whole weekend is busy to be fair. But not as busy as Wednesday. 

[WrathOfHan]

3 hours ago, Shawn said:

Also chiming in on Jurassic chat: tracking among under 18 year-olds is huge. Take that as you will.

Give me the Elvis numbers, Shawn.