Weekend Thread (5/20-22) | DS2 31.6, Downton 16, Bad Guys 6.1, Sonic 3.9, Men (are trash) 3.3

[CJohn]

Lets see how it holds when it loses all the PLFs to Top Gun next weekend, but 400M seem more likely than not at this point.

 

Now the waiting game for the OS number begins to see if 1B is still in the cards or not.

[M37]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Like most here predicted, Strange is stabilizing. I also dont think that it will crash next weekend with Top Gun arriving. Even if TG2 opens to something like 120M+ 3-Day, Doctor Strange will still be the major 2nd choice for Memorial Day weekend and the weekend itself will soften the drop from this weekend.

Even as someone who expected that stabilization, wouldn’t flip too far the other way and assert $400M is assured just yet  

 

Strange had the luxury of both holding all PLFs and premium ticket prices for 3 straight weeks, but will lose the former to TG2 next week, and probably drop whatever is left of the latter too. Those factors are going to be a significant detriment to grossing potential, even if the rate of admits only drops 45-50% 

[charlie Jatinder]

DA 4.8. Weekend 15.75-16.

[fabiopazzo2]

I saw TopGun Maverick 

 

best movie of the year

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

DA 4.8. Weekend 15.75-16.

Haha wow

[M37]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

DA 4.8. Weekend 15.75-16.

Yikes, >10% drop from TFri 

 

Book Club had a -15% Sun off a weak Sat on this same weekend, so wouldn’t rule out 4M Sun/over $16M+ OW just yet 

[Brainbug]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

DA 4.8. Weekend 15.75-16.

 

Damn. Didnt know the Downtown Abbey fans are as fearfull of spoilers as Marvel or Star Wars fans.  

[Maggie]

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

DA 4.8. Weekend 15.75-16.

wow are older adults still reluctant to go back to theaters?

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Like most here predicted, Strange is stabilizing. I also dont think that it will crash next weekend with Top Gun arriving. Even if TG2 opens to something like 120M+ 3-Day, Doctor Strange will still be the major 2nd choice for Memorial Day weekend and the weekend itself will soften the drop from this weekend.

Civil War dropped a 53% against X-Men:Apocalypse...

DS will drop 55% or more.

[charlie Jatinder]

DS2 13.4. FRI I think should be around 8.4 ish.

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Civil War dropped a 53% against X-Men:Apocalypse...

DS will drop 55% or more.

 

X Men is more of a direct comeptition than Maverick, though, due to higher crossover. Maverick targets Top Gun fans primarily which means skewing older.

[John2015]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

wow are older adults still reluctant to go back to theaters?

Focus had expected DA2 to open low to mid-teens, so this opening meets their expectation.

 

And then, DA2 reviews aren't very good, and older audience would be more willing to watch better-reviewed Top Gun 2.

Edited May 22, 2022 by John2015

[Starphanluke]

What's interesting about DS2 next weekend is that Top Gun may not be targeting that exact same audience, but Stranger Things and Obi Wan are out next weekend, and those do target similar demographics. Will be an interesting test to see if compelling streaming content can actually sway people's theatre-going habits. 

[Taruseth]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

DS2 13.4. FRI I think should be around 8.4 ish.

So it needs 8.2m for a 30m weekend (so less than a 38.8% drop, that should be doable).

 

The movie really wants to keep it interesting if it hits 400m or not.

[Valonqar]

24 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

What's interesting about DS2 next weekend is that Top Gun may not be targeting that exact same audience, but Stranger Things and Obi Wan are out next weekend, and those do target similar demographics. Will be an interesting test to see if compelling streaming content can actually sway people's theatre-going habits. 

 

But the advantage of streaming is that there's no fixed time when you can watch. Once the show/episode drops, you can watch any time, any day, any week, etc. So it's pretty easy to work a trip to the theater into binge schedule. 

 

So doubtful this will have an effect of a major sport event.

 

Also, Obi Wan audience is closer to Top Gun audience than DS2 audience. ST audience skewed older so old fans are still the staple of SW.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Valonqar

[Starphanluke]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

But the advantage of streaming is that there's no fixed time when you can watch. Once the show/episode drops, you can watch any time, any day, any week, etc. So it's pretty easy to work a trip to the theater into binge schedule. 

 

So doubtful this will have an effect of a major sport event.

 

Also, Obi Wan audience is closer to Top Gun audience than DS2 audience. ST audience skewed older so old fans are still the staple of SW.

Sure, my main point just being that there is substantial blockbuster content available on streaming next weekend, which will test the whole "compete with theatres" theory.

 

Also: Star Wars does have a substantial older audience, but Mandalorian has shown there are PLENTY of young fans tuning in.

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, DS2HaterLegion Confirmed said:

Sunday high 9s, weekend 32ish, cume 342.5, week of 50, should add at least 60 even with top gun.   
 

on the higher end could add like 70, finish 410s

Dont think it can reach as high as 410s .incoming releases will take up some of those premium screens . 

 

IM3 after  memorial day 372m

CW 377m

 

by the end of this weekend it will be around 5m ahead of IM3 vs 8.3 m last weekend. CW will remain about 4m+ ahead of it just the same as last week. IM3 will probably start to gain on it post memorial day 

[Grebacio]

Men debuted with an estimated $3.29M this weekend (from 2,212 locations).#Men #BoxOffice @A24 @men_movie

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) May 22, 2022

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

wow are older adults still reluctant to go back to theaters?

They’ve been going back to cinemas for ages here in the UK, but DA2 still fell -40% from the last one on opening weekend. 
 

1 hour ago, John2015 said:

Focus had expected DA2 to open low to mid-teens, so this opening meets their expectation.

 

And then, DA2 reviews aren't very good, and older audience would be more willing to watch better-reviewed Top Gun 2.

it’s at 85% certified fresh with an A Cinemascore though. 
 

3 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

 

Ouch. 

[Grebacio]

Everything Everywhere All At Once grossed an estimated $3.14M this weekend (from 1,576 locations), which was a 5.5% decrease from last weekend. Estimated total domestic gross stands at $52.26M.#EverythingEverywhere #BoxOffice @A24 @allatoncemovie

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) May 22, 2022