TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[Potiki]

It is hilarious that people talk about the same points over and over without checking publicly available quarterly reports on how a company is doing.

 

If people don't like Revenue as a metric here is the Operating income for calendar Q1 (Jan-Mar) 2022 for some of the major film/TV companies

 

Disney: $1.944B (excluding Theme Parks/Consumer products, if that was included is $3.699B)

Netflix: $1.972B

Paramount: $775m

Warner : $1.319B

 

Comcast doesn't break out NBCUniversal operating income and theme parks are included in NBCU so too much work involved to make a comp. Sony does theirs in Yen so again too difficult to compare. But among the above Disney makes the most if you include Theme Parks and Consumer products but if not they are Netflix are pretty similar, Warner is not far behind and paramount is still a ways behind the rest. 

 

Also as far as many of these companies losing money on streaming that is due to the fact that a lot of expenses are coming up from international rollouts, lots of marketing, localisation, tech, content etc. spend before they even enter a new country such as Disney who is rolling out in 40 or so markets in the coming weeks. 

 

There has been a lot of handwringing about content spend but revenue is well above content spend levels for most of the streamers (and a lot of the spend is for internal studios who benefit: DC /Cartoon Network at Warner, Nick/Star Trek at Paramount, Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar etc. at Disney and so on) Just have to look at costs of programming that Disney gave out, Disney+ has never had a quarter (up until Q122 which is calendar Q421) of over $1B in content spend, they plan to get to about ~$2B per quarter by 2024 but they should be much larger by that time and have very few markets that they are not in by that point, the same will be true for Paramount and Warner eventually although they are a bit slower to rollout and less forthcoming with specifics when it comes to streaming. 

 

Source for Disney+ (and Disney in general) content spend: 

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Potiki

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

24 minutes ago, mikeymichael said:

Anybody think the next Mission Impossible movie might enjoy a bit of a post-TGM Cruise bounce? If reviews are as good as last time, could we see 300m?

 

Sure. Fallout at today's ticket prices is nearly $260M, so that's only going to be about a 12-15% increase in actual tickets sold. Fallout has a lot of goodwill and after TGM, Cruise has even more. 

[keysersoze123]

41 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Netflix has  already laid off a ton of people.  They are already prepared to lay off something like 1,000 more in the next few months when it is expected they will report a loss of a couple million subscribers.  

 

It's not a sustainable business model.  It was when they were the only game in town, but they are bleeding due to other large corporations willing to burn billions to go after their market share.  

That is a different matter all together. Companies in Silicon Valley tend to over hire in times of growth and then tend to purge at these times. Even Facebook which generates ginormous amount of FCF is almost pausing hiring(not completely). That said their financials have improved to the point they are self sustaining at this point. 

[John2015]

48 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I am not diminishing streaming overall.  I love it and use it every single day.  

 

The problem is that desperately wanting to throw movies on their exclusively or day and date or on a shortened window is a gigantic money loser.  It's been proven over and over that the 3 revenue stream model is not only the best way to maximize your revenue, but it also builds relevancy and legacy to your films.  

 

People just flat out don't give a shit about movies that debut on streaming or day and date.  They come up on your forced algorithm, stay around for about a week and then basically disappear from existence and relevance as quickly as they were released.  

 

If something like The Adam Project would have released in theaters in March when there was a huge window for it to make money, it might have opened to $35m and gotten close to $100m domestic.  Then it could have hit PVOD for another infusion of cash and then finally debuted on Netflix later this summer and had people excited to watch it. 

 

Instead, it stuck around on their sham of a Top 10 list for a little bit, and you would be lucky if anyone even remembered it at this point only about 2 months since it came out. 

 

Not coincidentally, I can tell you for an absolute fact that Netflix working on a 45 day window deal with AMC and Regal (and essentially the whole industry) to give their films a wide release in theaters.  It's a lot closer than people think, and things like Knives Out 2 have a good shot of getting a 45 day theatrical window and then head to Netflix.  

Would Nerflix finally report box office gross numbers? David Poland implied that major theaters chains required Netflix to do so.

[Potiki]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

That is a different matter all together. Companies in Silicon Valley tend to over hire in times of growth and then tend to purge at these times. Even Facebook which generates ginormous amount of FCF is almost pausing hiring(not completely). That said their financials have improved to the point they are self sustaining at this point. 

Yeah for better or worse everyone (including Netflix higher-ups) treated Netflix like a tech company rather than a media one. 

 

It is probably one of the reasons that even though they have a terrible marketing strategy they still had the biggest marketing team of any of the media companies. Now they are being valued like a media company (rightfully so) rather than a tech growth stock they have to make some cuts. 

 

I disagree with some of the cuts they are making, like their in-house children's animation studios, so much for competing with Disney in family friendly animation, but that is another issue. 

[EmpireCity]

12 minutes ago, Potiki said:

It is hilarious that people talk about the same points over and over without checking publicly available quarterly reports on how a company is doing.

 

If people don't like Revenue as a metric here is the Operating income for calendar Q1 (Jan-Mar) 2022 for some of the major film/TV companies

 

Disney: $1.944B (excluding Theme Parks/Consumer products, if that was included is $3.699B)

Netflix: $1.972B

Paramount: $775m

Warner : $1.319B

 

Comcast doesn't break out NBCUniversal operating income and theme parks are included in NBCU so too much work involved to make a comp. Sony does theirs in Yen so again too difficult to compare. But among the above Disney makes the most if you include Theme Parks and Consumer products but if not they are Netflix are pretty similar, Warner is not far behind and paramount is still a ways behind the rest. 

 

Also as far as many of these companies losing money on streaming that is due to the fact that a lot of expenses are coming up from international rollouts, lots of marketing, localisation, tech, content etc. spend before they even enter a new country such as Disney who is rolling out in 40 or so markets in the coming weeks. 

 

There has been a lot of handwringing about content spend but revenue is well above content spend levels for most of the streamers (and a lot of the spend is for internal studios who benefit: DC /Cartoon Network at Warner, Nick/Star Trek at Paramount, Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar etc. at Disney and so on) Just have to look at costs of programming that Disney gave out, Disney+ has never had a quarter (up until Q122 which is calendar Q421) of over $1B in content spend, they plan to get to about ~$2B per quarter by 2024 but they should be much larger by that time and have very few markets that they are not in by that point, the same will be true for Paramount and Warner eventually although they are a bit slower to rollout and less forthcoming with specifics when it comes to streaming. 

 

Source for Disney+ (and Disney in general) content spend: 

 

 

The more hilarious thing is people ignoring that AT&T had to offload Warner Bros. and HBOMax, they had to fire nearly everyone in charge and bring in a guy to turn it around by emphasizing theatrical.  

 

Is that a totally normal thing for a company to do with such a slam dunk winner such as send every movie day and date to streaming, or is it possible that these companies have realized that abandoning theatrical is not very smart?  

 

Same with Netflix.  Totally normal for them to lay off a thousand people and re-open negotations with the largest theatrical exhbition companies in the world or is that the actions of people that know streaming is a guaranteed money maker?

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, John2015 said:

Would Nerflix finally report box office gross numbers? David Poland implied that major theaters chains required Netflix to do so.

 

That would be one of the requirements.  

[EmpireCity]

Number should be right about $37m.  

[M37]

42 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I am not diminishing streaming overall.  I love it and use it every single day.  

 

The problem is that desperately wanting to throw movies on their exclusively or day and date or on a shortened window is a gigantic money loser.  It's been proven over and over that the 3 revenue stream model is not only the best way to maximize your revenue, but it also builds relevancy and legacy to your films.  

 

People just flat out don't give a shit about movies that debut on streaming or day and date.  They come up on your forced algorithm, stay around for about a week and then basically disappear from existence and relevance as quickly as they were released.  

 

If something like The Adam Project would have released in theaters in March when there was a huge window for it to make money, it might have opened to $35m and gotten close to $100m domestic.  Then it could have hit PVOD for another infusion of cash and then finally debuted on Netflix later this summer and had people excited to watch it. 

 

Instead, it stuck around on their sham of a Top 10 list for a little bit, and you would be lucky if anyone even remembered it at this point only about 2 months since it came out. 

 

Not coincidentally, I can tell you for an absolute fact that Netflix working on a 45 day window deal with AMC and Regal (and essentially the whole industry) to give their films a wide release in theaters.  It's a lot closer than people think, and things like Knives Out 2 have a good shot of getting a 45 day theatrical window and then head to Netflix.  

When it’s a symbiotic relationship between production, exhibition, and streaming, everyone is better off 

 

But too many investors and CEOs got greedy, trying to pump up a subscriber base in the hopes of eventually cutting out the middle man, handling both production and exclusive distribution. Now they’re finding out there’s more to the entertainment relationship than just pumping out content, but instead cultivating an experience, that creates a lasting impression 

 

Why is Cobra Kai a bigger draw for Netflix than Fuller House, despite people likely logging way more hours watching the latter’s original? That’s not a coincidence. When you make disposable content, the relationship is also disposable

[Potiki]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

The more hilarious thing is people ignoring that AT&T had to offload Warner Bros. and HBOMax, they had to fire nearly everyone in charge and bring in a guy to turn it around by emphasizing theatrical.  

 

Is that a totally normal thing for a company to do with such a slam dunk winner such as send every movie day and date to streaming, or is it possible that these companies have realized that abandoning theatrical is not very smart?  

 

Same with Netflix.  Totally normal for them to lay off a thousand people and re-open negotations with the largest theatrical exhbition companies in the world or is that the actions of people that know streaming is a guaranteed money maker?

It's almost like the company that is doing the best (Disney) has multiple revenue streams be it Streaming, parks, Theatrical, Pay TV, Broadcast, merchandise etc. So yes being additive and having a movie make a lot in theatrical then go to streaming and help with retention is a pretty great business model particualry on big blockbuster with a huge upside (an upside that can't be matched on streaming). But theatrical doesn't solve everything ... neither does streaming. 

 

As for layoffs there are a LOT more layoffs at Warner/Discovery than Netflix.

 

Netflix layoffs as I mentioned above have more to do with them now being valued as a media stock rather than a growth tech stock which means they need to show better profit margins to get the stock to go up unless they can somehow convince Wall Street they are a tech stock again which given their foray into gaming is unlikely. 

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Number should be right about $37m.  

Damn really? Sunday? -2.6% Noice👌

Edited May 30, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[LonePirate]

Sunday being essentially flat with Saturday is somehow both very impressive and completely unsurprising. Over $153 for the 4 day is almost a foregone conclusion now.

 

[narniadis]

8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Number should be right about $37m.  

That should settle the Record talk, pending Mondays guess holds up. 

Thanks for the share. 

[BruiseCruise]

Are Apple/Amazon also going to do theatrical releases going forward? 

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Are Apple/Amazon also going to do theatrical releases going forward? 

 

Yes.  

[Borobudur]

22 minutes ago, narniadis said:

That should settle the Record talk, pending Mondays guess holds up. 

Thanks for the share. 

But 3 days weekend record will still be with POTC3.....if preview are rolled in.

[narniadis]

12 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

But 3 days weekend record will still be with POTC3.....if preview are rolled in.

Yup, by less than 1m but the overall 4 day (including Monday's holiday) is what everyone has been discussing in total. 

And of course that doesn't account for inflation. Who knows the Friday/Saturday may also go up a little bit (probably not.) We shall have to see 😁

[RthDeadWov]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

Number should be right about $37m.  

yep agree

[filmlover]

The Sunday of Memorial Day weekend always behaves as a second Saturday. Stellar hold.

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, RthMav said:

yep agree

So it is then 127m instead of 124m. 6.6x of Preview multiplier, compared to 6.2x of batman.
 

Even if Monday come in line with paramount estimate at 27m, that would still mean a record breaking 154m and I am hoping a military-themed movie will fit well as a go-for-choice on memorial day.