Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[filmlover]

Top Gun actually has two weekends that will give it a nice boost between Father's Day and 4th of July weekend. Next week will paint a clearer picture as to where it's headed (since it loses all large screen formats on Thursday) but we could be in for a truly special run here.

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

As an early preview for the BOT crew here, the early Sunday numbers are indicating that $30m is pretty safe for today.  Let's see where the day takes us, but that would make for around a $91m weekend.  

My god, TGM not only has the best weekend hold for a 100m opener but a 28% drop on after a holiday weekend.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Eric Mitchell said:

 

 

Very solid start. Korea is bit underwhelming but local movie The Roundup is doing excuellent over there so thats some hefty competiton for it. Mexico number is huge.

[superduperm]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

As an early preview for the BOT crew here, the early Sunday numbers are indicating that $30m is pretty safe for today.  Let's see where the day takes us, but that would make for around a $91m weekend.  

Is this a serious comment? Genuinely asking. It’s not even noon on the east coast yet.

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

do we have OS number this weekend? Also, when does it open in Korea which should be big?

 

 

And yes, +50M on Korea doesn't look impossible 

[John Marston]

 

 

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Does anyone think Top Gun: Maverick might have an outside chance of outgrossing James Cameron’s Titanic, DOM-wise? If the weekends gets better & better for Top Gun 2?

Definitely like to outgross  Jean Negulesco's Titanic.

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

 

And yes, +50M on Korea doesn't look impossible 

Is it a coincidence or what? Top 3 markers so far UK, Australia and Japan are happen to be the country with strongest military ties with USA.

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Very solid start. Korea is bit underwhelming but local movie The Roundup is doing excuellent over there so thats some hefty competiton for it. Mexico number is huge.

Considering the early projection was $45m, $55.5m is great. 

[filmlover]

The sheer enormity of these numbers makes me wish that we go the rest of the season with nothing but big numbers. Celebrate the first real summer movie season since 2019 with nothing but good news for all four months.

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, Eric Mitchell said:

 

Below FK in the same set of markets. Not an amazing start.

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Is this a serious comment? Genuinely asking. It’s not even noon on the east coast yet.

It's Empire so he's certainly not trolling like Charlie yesterday. He can look at presales and trends to come up with the estimate. So if he's saying 30M is a safe bet then Sunday will be in that vicinity. 

[Joyous Legion]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I agree. it will boost BO. That still does not make it a holiday 

It is a holiday though. Regardless of BO.

[M37]

7 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Best second weekend holds for $100M+ openers:
1. Top Gun: Maverick - -30.5%
2. Shrek 2 - -33.2%
3. Frozen 2 - -34.0%
4. Spider-Man - -37.8%
5. Star Wars: TFA - -39.8%
6. The Jungle Book - -40.4%
7. Wonder Woman - -43.3%
8. Black Panther - -44.7%
9. Finding Dory - -46%
10. Alice in Wonderland - -46. 0%

Inspired by this post and @Shawn's comment about the historical nature of what we're seeing this weekend, I took a slightly different route of comparison. Given how "opening weekend" is a bit of an amorphous entity, with Wednesday openings, the ever expanding previews, and holiday impacts that can inflate either first or second weekends, decided to instead focus on the opening Saturday - the day least impacted by extraneous factors - and see just how much of outlier TG2 has been this weekend. And since I'm a visual learner, I made a chart, using (an admittedly arbitrary) $30M opening Saturday as the cut-off line. One of these things is not like the others ...

 

 

Only 6 films with at least a $30M opening Saturday have held 70% (-30% hold or better) for their second Saturday

 

Top Gun 2 -6%

Force Awakens -17% (Boxing Day)

American Sniper -17%

Incredibles -24%

Black Panther -28%

Zootopia -28%

 

Finally, two films that didn't make the $30M cut line, but worth mentioning: Avatar, which increased 10.8% from its opening Saturday, albeit on Boxing Day, and the oft-overlooked Crazy Rich Asians, which also increased (by <1%) from its first Saturday, from a much lower opening weekend but also without the factor of PLF demand rolling demand forward into the run

 

[Gavin Feng]

10 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

As an early preview for the BOT crew here, the early Sunday numbers are indicating that $30m is pretty safe for today.  Let's see where the day takes us, but that would make for around a $91m weekend.  

 

I take this post as the proof that TGM will break the first run record of Par held by Titanic ($601M).

[druv10]

Congrats to Rafa, 14th French Open Win and 22nd GS win. GOAT!!!

[superduperm]

1 minute ago, druv10 said:

It's Empire so he's certainly not trolling like Charlie yesterday. He can look at presales and trends to come up with the estimate. So if he's saying 30M is a safe bet then Sunday will be in that vicinity. 

Thanks! Was genuinely asking and not trying to be a jerk (I know how trusted EC is on here). $30M would be amazing and I don’t want to get my hopes up too high over an AM estimate lol

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Below FK in the same set of markets. Not an amazing start.

That Mexico number is a huge overperformance. 
 

Korea and Hong Kong brought it down, which both have context as to why. 
 

It is a great start. 

[SupermanLego]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is it a coincidence or what? Top 3 markers so far UK, Australia and Japan are happen to be the country with strongest military ties with USA.

The UK usually likes what america likes - UK particular made movies. Look at the TFA highest grossing in America, UK and I think even AUS