Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[SupermanLego]

1 minute ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

If it does get there, it will be one of the few $1B+ WW grossers that isn’t a CGI-spectacle film (which is most of the $1B+ grossers), not a comic-book superhero film, not an animated film, not even a fantasy film.

It would be a nostalgia based film though....

[Maggie]

Good hold for Strange. Too bad it will be on streaming pretty soon

[MrFanaticGuy34]

The only types of film that hasn’t grossed $1B+ WW yet, is a raw & pure comedy film. 🤷🏻‍♀️

[SchumacherFTW]

Just now, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

The only types of film that hasn’t grossed $1B+ WW yet, is a raw & pure comedy film. 🤷🏻‍♀️

Hard to get a pure comedy that will appeal to every nation to get a 1bn gross

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

@EmpireCity has gotten really good at estimating the daily TG2 number very early. If anything, his initial projections have been conservative, as actuals have been often higher 

 

Thank you.  I'm ok at it.  My man @charlie Jatinder is by far the best at it.  @RthMav is the man as well.  

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

The only types of film that hasn’t grossed $1B+ WW yet, is a raw & pure comedy film. 🤷🏻‍♀️

 

But Aladdin grossed over a billion in 2019?

 

Spoiler

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 minute ago, SupermanLego said:

It would be a nostalgia based film though....

Which is actaully pretty good. But it’s at least a pure action flick, with practical stunts and such.

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Cruise, in his infinite wisdom, refused.  If he didn't refuse and caved, then TG2 likely makes $300m less WW and same with  MI:7 and MI:8.  It was nearly a $1b mistake.  

Why do you spew hyperbolic nonsense like this that is backed up by nothing? Just makes you sound like boxoffice Alex Jones. The movie would not lose $300 mil with a 45 day window.

[Cooper Legion]

6 hours ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I think the only adjusted 100M+* opens with a better drop than F2 are:

Avatar -2% (lol)

How 4he Grinch stole Christmas -7 (Thanksgiving) 

TLK 1994 -16

TPM -21% (wed open, mdw 2nd)

Two towers -21 (wed open, Xmas holidays)

JP1 -23%

Batman -26

Monsters Inc -27

American Sniper -28

Incredibles -29

Rotk -30 (wed open, Xmas holidays)

Independence Day -30

Nemo -34

 

* Using 2019 ATP +10% again

The only one that seems likely to do better than TGM with a bigger adjusted opening is TPM. 

[Maggie]

Jurassic will steal the premium format screens next week. I wonder what kind of drop Maverick will have

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Jurassic will steal the premium format screens next week. I wonder what kind of drop Maverick will have

40-45%

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Legion and Thunder said:

The only one that seems likely to do better than TGM with a bigger adjusted opening is TPM. 

 

Thats not the worst company box-offce wise to have.

 

Just now, Maggie said:

Jurassic will steal the premium format screens next week. I wonder what kind of drop Maverick will have

 

Honestly ... i dont think the drop will be too sharp. Id guess in the 40 - 45% range. Losing PLF will hurt it, but people wont just stop buying tickets for it just because it isnt playing in IMAX anymore.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Just now, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

But Aladdin grossed over a billion in 2019?

True, and it did. But it’s a Live Action Disney remake and it’s more like an adventure/fantasy film that happens to have comedy.

[Tokugennumataka]

There's electric excitement and energy in the air here. We can all feel it here. I don't think I've felt it since Black Panther. Just happy to be a part of it. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

40-45%

 

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Id guess in the 40 - 45% range.

 

😅 @T-ReXXR

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Jurassic will steal the premium format screens next week. I wonder what kind of drop Maverick will have

PLFs made up 32% of its gross this weekend according to Deadline (IMAX alone making $11M), so that's almost $30M we can subtract right there lol. It's also going to be hurt by the fact all of the bigger auditoriums in general are going to Jurassic World and will be forced into losing some theater space, but that might not matter too much as long as it keeps filling up shows as much it is.

Edited June 5, 2022 by filmlover

[Krissykins]

I don’t think a 45 day window would cost anything $300m. 
 

I agree they should be longer when appropriate. But with bombs like Morbius and Fantastic Beasts, let the studios put them out earlier. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Krissykins

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

PLFs made up 32% of its gross this weekend according to Deadline (IMAX alone making $11M), so that's almost $30M we can subtract right there lol. It's also going to be hurt by the fact all of the bigger auditoriums in general are going to Jurassic World and will be forced into losing some theater space, but that might not matter too much as long as it keeps filling up shows as much it is.

 

[FilmFincher]

12 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Thank you.  I'm ok at it.  My man @charlie Jatinder is by far the best at it.  @RthMav is the man as well.  

[MrFanaticGuy34]

6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Hard to get a pure comedy that will appeal to every nation to get a 1bn gross

True. And it can be very hard, unless the comedy blockbuster happens to have an enough large OS-appeal, stars that are great box office draws and that audiences like, and also stellar WOM.

 

But then again, never say never. Since the box office for certain films can be very unpredictable. ”Hi, Mom” is a comedy film and it did $850M+ WW or so, (from mostly China alone, tbf) which nobody on Earth saw coming.