BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[charlie Jatinder]

34 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

8m is still pretty likely?

yeah that is truly a lock.

[charlie Jatinder]

Austria Christmas weekend for record

 

Rang	Titel	Verleih	Besuche Wochenende	Besuche gesamt
1	Avatar 2: The Way of Water	Disney	67.673	288.196
2	Gestiefelte Kater, Der: Der letzte Wunsch	UPI	24.002	35.650
3	Räuber Hotzenplotz, Der	Const/STCanal	10.801	46.733
4	Weihnachtsfest für Teddy, Ein	Polyfilm	8.613	47.409
5	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Disney	3.335	178.705
6	Strange World	Disney	3.222	38.506
7	Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody	Sony	2.338	3.786
8	Violent Night	UPI	2.128	31.392
9	Magic Flute, The - Das vermächtnis der Zauberflöte	Const/Tobis	2.826	24.893
10	Oskars Kleid	Warner Bros	1.989	2.615

[Aristis]

As of Sunday Avatar 2 is the 18th highest grossing movie at the german BO, €63,49M from 4,716M admissions. ATP is down to 13,46€.

 

Still hoping for 6M admissions next Sunday and €80M cume... 

 

List of highest grossing movies in Germany:

https://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm

 

And it just had the 9th biggest 3rd WE:

Admissions / theaters / average / year / title

1	1.357.107	1.233	1.101	02	Harry Potter 1
2	1.315.675	1.070	1.230	02	Lord of the rings 1
3	1.297.669	1.266	1.025	03	Lord of the rings 2
4	1.243.964	971	1.281	96	Independence Day
5	1.236.363	888	1.392	12	The Hobbit
6	1.167.468	1.341	871	04	Lord of the rings 3
7	1.118.415	749	1.493	98	Titanic
8	1.072.267	874	1.227	13	The Hobbit 2
9	1.067.150	737	1.448	22	Avatar 2
10	1.028.384	872	1.179	09	Ice Age 3

[Taruseth]

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

yeah that is truly a lock.

A lock?

I wouldn't say something that absolute, but I agree it's highly likely.

 

 

I thought about the coming weeks again and I am still thinking it's heading towards 9m, but I might have overshot how likely that is (probably like 30-40% right now) - still wouldn't rule out 10m (like 10%) - we have to know how it will hold next weekend. If it drops to like 700k then 8m is probably the ceiling, if it gets to 1000k it should approach 9m and maybe, maybe even can get past that.

 

Rogue One dropped 31% for Avatar 2 which would mean a 735k weekend, but that would spell trouble because Rogue One had Passenger opening on that weekend, which opened with 413k - probably more than any movie opening in January will make in total. - unless maybe ??? surprised during the last January weekend.

So a clearer January should mean better holds on top of it already holding way, way better than RO.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Taruseth

[Taruseth]

4 hours ago, Aristis said:

As of Sunday Avatar 2 is the 18th highest grossing movie at the german BO, €63,49M from 4,716M admissions. ATP is down to 13,46€.

 

Still hoping for 6M admissions next Sunday and €80M cume... 

 

List of highest grossing movies in Germany:

https://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm

 

And it just had the 9th biggest 3rd WE:

Admissions/theaters / average / year / title

1	1.357.107	1.233	1.101	02	Harry Potter 1
2	1.315.675	1.070	1.230	02	Lord of the rings 1
3	1.297.669	1.266	1.025	03	Lord of the rings 2
4	1.243.964	971	1.281	96	Independence Day
5	1.236.363	888	1.392	12	The Hobbit
6	1.167.468	1.341	871	04	Lord of the rings 3
7	1.118.415	749	1.493	98	Titanic
8	1.072.267	874	1.227	13	The Hobbit 2
9	1.067.150	737	1.448	22	Avatar 2
10	1.028.384	872	1.179	09	Ice Age 3

 

 

Needs 1,283,724 Admissions for that.

Taking RO weekdays to the weekend ratio for 3rd week, the weekdays should be 640k and the following weekend 735k, that alone would mean 6090k.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

A lock?

I wouldn't say something that absolute, but I agree it's highly likely.

I am saying 8M is absolute certain and will need something very bad to miss.

[Aristis]

2 hours ago, Taruseth said:

 

 

Needs 1,283,724 Admissions for that.

Taking RO weekdays to the weekend ratio for 3rd week, the weekdays should be 640k and the following weekend 735k, that alone would mean 6090k.

I too thought it was locked to happen but this

13 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

9M looked like a lock if it had followed Rogue One for next 3 days but yeah MON isn't looking as big as it would have, so 9M is no longer lock

made me think it's lower than following RO. 

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, Aristis said:

I too thought it was locked to happen but this

made me think it's lower than following RO. 

Naa its well ahead, just that RO jumped 50% on Jan 2, A2 jumped only 19

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top16 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Avatar 2	1.067.150	737	1.448	4.716.276	63.488.134	+45	3
2	Puss in Boots 2	206.072	613	336	566.575	4.795.187	+70	2
3	Der Räuber Hotzenplotz	88.794	723	123	475.497	3.468.588	+101	4
4	Oskars Kleid	75.985	526	144	195.501	1.785.398	+93	2
5	I Wanna Dance with Somebody	46.394	408	114	129.749	1.307.275	+98	2
6	Die Schule der magischen Tiere 2	35.050	382	92	2.441.302	17.862.994	+246	14
7	Was man von hier aus sehen kann	28.004	124	226	32.266	287.609	-	1
8	Black Panther 2	21.475	204	105	1.462.067	16.623.074	+52	8
9	Einfach mal was Schönes	19.527	360	54	575.915	5.331.545	+134	7
10	Hui Buh und das Hexenschloss	14.644	308	48	491.033	3.750.782	+154	9
11	Strange World	13.676	307	45	257.752	2.039.143	+40	6
12	Triangle of Sadness	10.950	132	115	407.349	3.906.383	+201	12
13	Teddybjørnens jul	10.950	309	35	232.249	1.652.245	-54	7
14	The Menu	10.858	155	70	286.813	2.699.080	+99	7
15	Rheingold	9.804	99	99	974.551	9.714.309	+15	10
16	She Said	8.700	158	55	101.010	915.037	+69	4

Wow, some good numbers - Avatar 2 is laying down a bid for 9mil total or more, Puss in Boots 2 is having the numbers I expected for OW and domestic longrunner Die Schule der magischen Tiere 2 quintupled last week's numbers and has a chance at 2,5mil. total! Not too shabby for the only decent opener either (I wasn't aware this got so few theaters …).

Next weekend: No big openers as the holiday season closes; The Banshees Of Inisherin comes with critical acclaim but few expectations and the latest Guy Ritchie crime comedy Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre will probably see some mild success, but Avatar 2 will continue to dominate the market all evening long which makes it really hard for other grown-up releases to survive.

[titanic2187]

The most admitted movie in the past 10 years are Intounchable and SW7 at around 9m. I love to see A2 become join the elite club of this decade or even the first 10m movie since Avatar 1. German cinema needs some booster now.  

[LPLC]

215k admissions on Monday. Is it good or less than expected ?

[Taruseth]

15 hours ago, LPLC said:

215k admissions on Monday. Is it good or less than expected ?

Okay, I guess, 640k weekdays won't be easy though with that.

Probably more like 550k for the weekdays.

[Aristis]

8 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Okay, I guess, 640k weekdays won't be easy though with that.

Probably more like 550k for the weekdays.

Though the InsideKino prediction has it at 6,2M after Sunday of an 854k WE which would be ~640k midweek and in theory he should know a bit more about the numbers... So I still hope for a week that high. 

 

https://www.insidekino.de/DProg/Prog5JAN2023.htm

[Aristis]

Yesterday, on Tuesday, Avatar 2 cracked the Top 10 highest grossing movies in Germany with €69,1M from 5,15M admissions. After Sunday it should be around €82M+ and #6 - though I hope for #5 passing FotR (€83,12M). 

 

http://www.insidekino.com/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm

[Aristis]

With 1,73M admissions Avatar 2 had the 2nd biggest 3rd week ever. 

 

1,64M (-) 1,81M #68th biggest OWeek

1,84M (+10%) 3,65M

1,73M (-6%) 5,37M #2nd biggest 3rd week

[Taruseth]

In Austria its past 600k admissions.

 

 

 

[Sophia Jane]

1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

In Austria its past 600k admissions.

 

 

 

till when?

[Dale Cooper]

So it made 660k weekdays despite weak Monday? Seems quite good to me.

 

Anyway, it seems the trend better on weekends than weekdays compared to Rogue One and it keeps improving compared to it. It made about 230% of Rogue One's third set of weekdays compared to 170% over the second set of weekdays. It did about 230% of Rogue One's third weekend. If it keeps improving in about the same rate it could triple Rogue One's third weekend for close to a million? Maybe that's too much to ask for.

Edited January 5, 2023 by Dale Cooper

[Sophia Jane]

9-10m admits doable

[Taruseth]

12 minutes ago, Bruce said:

till when?

I think Tuesday.

 

3 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

So it made 660k weekdays despite weak Monday? Seems quite good to me.

 

Anyway, it seems the trend better on weekends than weekdays compared to Rogue One and it keeps improving compared to it. It made about 230% of Rogue One's second set of weekdays compared to 170% over the second set of weekdays. It did about 230% of Rogue One's third weekend. If it keeps improving in about the same rate it could triple Rogue One's third weekend for close to a million? Maybe that's too much to ask for.

It does.

 

1m will be really, really, really hard - but I don't want to say impossible. I just wouldn't expect it 850-900k would already be really great.