WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[krla]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

 

Top Gun is not going to plummet lmao

Top Gun next week be like: 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Cap said:

Shawn doesn’t run this board, I do.

 

 

[Cheddar Please]

3 minutes ago, krla said:

Top Gun next week be like: 

In all honesty a 30% drop sounds pretty reasonable. Removing Father's Day boost from this weekend gives you about 39 million. Take about 20% off from that nets you ~31m next weekend

[Blankments]

Saw Top Gun today for a second time, but this time with my dad. Great Father's Day outing; ending got me more choked up this time

 

12 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

It's early, but let's be safe and go with $18m for TG2 as of now.  

 

Quite frankly, a lot of theater bookers didn't plan well enough for TG2 on Father's Day.  The only thing holding it back from even higher numbers is lack of seats.  

 

Cinemark has it stuck in medium sized theaters today.  Idiots.  Same thing for a number of other chains.  

 

but yes this is definitely true. We went to a 1:55pm show at my parents' Cinemark and it was completely sold out by 1:20 with the next showtime not until like 3 lol. Small-ass auditorium too (although thankfully with a great sound system still).

[THUNDER BIRD]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Dominion is doing decently considering the TGM competition and the terrible reviews and the storyline not being what people expected. Obviously they left some money on the table by not making a more widely liked film 

Dominion is doing well for a movie that focus more on Insects than the titular creatures.

 

This is a testament to strength of this franchise that they are basically lying to audience and getting to around 900 million.

 

Hopefully next movie is actually about Dinosaurs.

[Noctis]

On 6/18/2022 at 11:48 PM, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Another problem is the gay representation is usually half-assed and in projects that don’t have broad appeal. Fantastic Beasts? Lightyear? Eternals? None of these are great, or particularly exciting, with tepid critic response. If Tom Holland’s Spider-Man was gay the movies would still smash, but we aren’t really given gay leads for these franchises. 

 

Secrets of Dumbledore is legit the only blockbuster with the main lead as gay, as well as its antagonist where their love is specifically mentioned during four scenes. It's not a gay romance film, but it's by far the biggest representation we have had so far. Not the tokenism we have seen in Eternals, etc.

 

 

[wildphantom]

4 hours ago, awkwardaardvark said:

Alright, now you’re really pushing it. I watched Encanto a bunch of times, both in the UK and in the US. I’m on a bunch of animation forums, too.
 

People liked the film, but there wasn’t the demand you’re talking about. No-one I tried to convince to go watch it said they were going to watch it online when it came out. They simply didn’t care. 
 

Streaming saved that movie. 

I think it would have made close to twice what it did theatrically if it had been allowed to play that Xmas holiday exclusively, with no free date in sight. 
 

Regardless, the craze once lots of people did actually see it would have happened months later. 
 

Think of the numbers of people that heard it was great and were just waiting to click that free button when it hit D+. Tons of those would have gone to see the movie imo. But Disney told them they didn’t need to. 

[wildphantom]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

well Encanto is doing a lot better than Turning Red. but is that just because Encanto is insanely big?

probably due to people jumping to a song or two repeatedly on the stream and then it counting as a watch. Same old streaming data BS to make it look better than it is. 
 

Imagine buying a VHS of a Disney movie back in the day and everytime you watched it it counted as some sort of sale. Lol. 

[Xavier]

1 hour ago, Noctis said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore is legit the only blockbuster with the main lead as gay, as well as its antagonist where their love is specifically mentioned during four scenes. It's not a gay romance film, but it's by far the biggest representation we have had so far. Not the tokenism we have seen in Eternals, etc.

 

 

EXACTLY. Quite brave, too, on the part of the filmmakers to insist on that, and not just to declare it, but also to make Dumbledore lust (still, after so many years, and without reciprocation) over Grindelwald.

 

You would expect that the movie would suffer specifically  because of this openness and the fact that that did not happen is due to reduced interest in the series (Ok, almost no-one cared) and the fact that the movie's fanbase largely consisted of women and members of the LGBTQI+ community.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Xavier

[Brainbug]

Im in the camp that thinks Dominions hold this weekend - similar to its OW - is ok. It would have dropped 60%+ if it wasnt a Holiday weekend and at the same time, raw numbers are raw numbers and a 60M+ 2nd weekend is fine. Not great, but also not bad. It secures 330M+ imo even with bad late legs and with good ones, 350M is extremely likely (maybe even ... even LOCKED) and atm i think 380M is reachable.

 

And Top Gun will crash and burn to probably 32-35M next weekend. Total collapse, i know.

 

Lightyear ... sad numbers.

 

But a very good hold for Doctor Strange! Makes the decision to release it on Disney+ so early even stupider.

 

 

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Im in the camp that thinks Dominions hold this weekend - similar to its OW - is ok. It would have dropped 60%+ if it wasnt a Holiday weekend and at the same time, raw numbers are raw numbers and a 60M+ 2nd weekend is fine. Not great, but also not bad. It secures 330M+ imo even with bad late legs and with good ones, 350M is extremely likely (maybe even ... even LOCKED) and atm i think 380M is reachable.

 

And Top Gun will crash and burn to probably 32-35M next weekend. Total collapse, i know.

 

Lightyear ... sad numbers.

 

But a very good hold for Doctor Strange! Makes the decision to release it on Disney+ so early even stupider.

 

 

I mean maybe? But like you could argue Lightyear (Even in its weakness) and Top Gun having a 40+ weekend also eat into that, making it even out.

[awkwardaardvark]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

probably due to people jumping to a song or two repeatedly on the stream and then it counting as a watch. Same old streaming data BS to make it look better than it is. 
 

Imagine buying a VHS of a Disney movie back in the day and everytime you watched it it counted as some sort of sale. Lol. 

 Lmao. You people really don’t want to accept that any good can come from streaming, can’t you? Jesus. 
 

It’s far closer to TV than buying a VHS. A viewer is a viewer, however you want to contort the facts to serve your argument. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by awkwardaardvark

[CJohn]

Amazing to see JW3 matching FK's 2nd weekend. 

[Brainbug]

26 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I mean maybe? But like you could argue Lightyear (Even in its weakness) and Top Gun having a 40+ weekend also eat into that, making it even out.

 

Yes thats why im usualy cautious with hypothetical scenarios (what if-realitys) instead of using the real numbers weve got. In real numbers, Dominion is matching Fallen Kingdoms 2nd weekend and that is not bad at all. At the same time, we must expect it to fall harder on Weekend 3 than FK because this one is Holiday-inflated, so it all even outs in the end.

[Alex SciChannel]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Yes thats why im usualy cautious with hypothetical scenarios (what if-realitys) instead of using the real numbers weve got. In real numbers, Dominion is matching Fallen Kingdoms 2nd weekend and that is not bad at all. At the same time, we must expect it to fall harder on Weekend 3 than FK because this one is Holiday-inflated, so it all even outs in the end.

I wouldn't count on a hard drop. It may happen, but good weekday holds may counteract that.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I wouldn't count on a hard drop. It may happen, but good weekday holds may counteract that.

 

Im all for Dominion suprising me and not having a 56%+ drop next weekend (for reference, FK dropped 53% in Weekend 3), but the Sunday-to-Sunday drop will be hefty in any case, even if it holds well on Friday/Saturday next weekend.

[Alex SciChannel]

Just now, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Im all for Dominion suprising me and not having a 56%+ drop next weekend (for reference, FK dropped 53% in Weekend 3), but the Sunday-to-Sunday drop will be hefty in any case, even if it holds well on Friday/Saturday next weekend.

You really are the definition of "lower your expectations and you'll never be disappointed" lol! As many have said before, this weekend's Sunday may be inflated but by default that deflates it's Saturday. Combine that with more competition, it's a wonder Dominion managed to stay flat within FK's drop. And yes this is making more than 370M. Unless something absolutely cripples its late legs. It even has the possibility of 395M on the high end.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

You really are the definition of "lower your expectations and you'll never be disappointed" lol! As many have said before, this weekend's Sunday may be inflated but by default that deflates it's Saturday. Combine that with more competition, it's a wonder Dominion managed to stay flat within FK's drop. And yes this is making more than 370M. Unless something absolutely cripples its late legs. It even has the possibility of 395M on the high end.

 

Hey i was sure before it opened that it would gross 180M+ on OW and was hoping for 200M+ actually to make my (in hindsight) lunatic club happen.

 

Meaning my hopes were kind of crushed and now im just happy that it is performing solidly compared with Fallen Kingdom thats why im coming off maybe a bit conservative in my projections lol

[Mulder]

Like I said, how well it holds against Thor 4 (a much, much, much stronger MCU film than Ant-Man 2) is what'll determine how JW:D does imo.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Mulder said:

Like I said, how well it holds against Thor 4 (a much, much, much stronger MCU film than Ant-Man 2) is what'll determine how JW does imo.

 

I woudnt underestimate the threat of the Minions as well. A big part of JW's audience are familys and Minions will take a lot of them away.