WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Won’t happen with ELVIS

Yup. Though, I bet TGM gets a few back then a solid sized number back for the 4th of July weekend. The hold that weekend is going to be completely nuts. Like maybe flat or an increase from whatever it makes next weekend. Then, of course, Thor will take every premium screen for at least week or so the weekend after the 4th of July weekend.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

11 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

 

The 2nd best (real) 4th weekend ever, behind only Avatar at $50.3M. I don't expect it will hold quite as well as Avatar did post-4th weekend but if it did manage to, we would be looking at $750M or so.....

 

At this point, I would not be surprised if it surpasses Jurassic World (~$653M), Titanic (~$659M) and maybe even Infinity War (~$678M).

 

If TGM follows the other Top 10 4th weekends legs, here is where it ends up (assuming $45M 4th Wknd, $467M DOM total)....

 

Avatar = $751M 

The Force Awakens = $599M

Black Panther = $620M

The Avengers = $602M 

SM: No Way Home = $655M

Avengers: Endgame = $598M 

Avengers: Infinity War = $594M

Jurassic World = $614M 

Titanic = $1100M 🤣

Spider-Man = $590M 

[Alex SciChannel]

Lightyear at 20.5M Friday

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

If not even a known IP like Buzz Lightyear can bring in families, then what hope do Strange World and Elemental have? Sonic is so, so lucky to have such a massive, multi-generational fanbase.

On the plus side, Strange World will be opening over Thanksgiving weekend and will be the first kids movie since...Super-Pets (thanks for moving, Spider-Man and Puss in Boots) so who knows how much of a desire to get out of the house there will be for families by then.

[wildphantom]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

To be fair to Disney, huge movie buffs wouldn't have canceled...but a lot of normal families would have, especially if they got cheaper streaming deals.  I mean, I already did for this year since there was not enough content and 2 free streaming channels with kid programming and adult programming fell in my lap.

 

They have to try and keep the "average" user happy, not the power user or the very committed user.  That's hard, and I'm still not sure they have it right, yet.

Sure, but those streaming channels you’re talking about don’t have films that are losing hundreds of millions of dollars by being on there so early.

 

It’s interesting what you say, but I wouldn’t say it to be typical tons of families would cancel Disney+ because a new movie doesn’t go on there seven weeks after opening? 
 

We’re talking about three or four animated films a year here, that should be making so much more money. Is all that revenue really worth giving up for what I would bet is an absolutely tiny fraction of consumers who would cancel over this?

[Ethan Hunt]

10 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

If not even a known IP like Buzz Lightyear can bring in families, then what hope do Strange World and Elemental have? Sonic is so, so lucky to have such a massive, multi-generational fanbase.

Well hopefully people expect them to be good lol

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

 

If TGM follows the other Top 10 4th weekends legs, here is where it ends up (assuming $45M 4th Wknd, $467M DOM total)....

 

Avatar = $751M 

The Force Awakens = $599M

Black Panther = $620M

The Avengers = $602M 

SM: No Way Home = $655M

Avengers: Endgame = $598M 

Avengers: Infinity War = $594M

Jurassic World = $614M 

Titanic = $1100M 🤣

Spider-Man = $590M 

Do you think TGM has a shot at 30M+ each of the next two weekends considering the second of those two weekends is the 4th of July weekend with the holiday on a Monday and it's likely to have a decent amount of premium screens back over said holiday weekend?

[Ethan Hunt]

Think a 45M weekend for Maverick would lock up 600M

[John Marston]

Damn I remember there were some 100m and 1 billion worldwide predictions for LY

[EmpireCity]

38 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

MoM will be available to buy for $20 on Wednesday. I’d have bought it. 
 

But instead I don’t need to as the mouse have decided to give it to me for free on a service I wouldn’t have cancelled. Lmao. It’s comical at this point. 
 

Oh well. Go Bob I guess! 
 

 

Bob Chapek is one of the dumbest mother fuckers on the planet.  His firing (non-renewal) is going to be delicious.  

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yup. Though, I bet TGM gets a few back then a solid sized number back for the 4th of July weekend. The hold that weekend is going to be completely nuts. Like maybe flat or an increase from whatever it makes next weekend. Then, of course, Thor will take every premium screen for at least week or so the weekend after the 4th of July weekend.

This is what the PLF schedule for the rest of the summer looks like FYI:

 

June 24: Elvis (The Black Phone is being advertised for Dolby but how many of those screens it will receive remains to be seen)

July 1: Minions

July 8: Thor

July 22: Nope

July 29: Super-Pets (during the day at least)

August 5: Bullet Train

 

After that the schedule is up in the air unless things like Fall or Beast end up getting those screens for their opening weekends.

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

This is what the PLF schedule for the rest of the summer looks like FYI:

 

June 24: Elvis (The Black Phone is being advertised for Dolby but how many of those screens it will receive remains to be seen)

July 1: Minions

July 8: Thor

July 22: Nope

July 29: Super-Pets (during the day at least)

August 5: Bullet Train

 

After that the schedule is up in the air unless things like Fall or Beast end up getting those screens for their opening weekends.

Minions is going to be at least splitting PLF with Top Gun I expect 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

Sure, but those streaming channels you’re talking about don’t have films that are losing hundreds of millions of dollars by being on there so early.

 

It’s interesting what you say, but I wouldn’t say it to be typical tons of families would cancel Disney+ because a new movie doesn’t go on there seven weeks after opening? 
 

We’re talking about three or four animated films a year here, that should be making so much more money. Is all that revenue really worth giving up for what I would bet is an absolutely tiny fraction of consumers who would cancel over this?

 

But what does Disney have vs other streaming channels to keep you?  Especially at their higher price point (since they, Netflix, and HBO Max are the kings of the price point)?  They haven't put their whole catalogs on, so they are relying on this stuff to keep families happy.  B/c most families are not just looking for another Disney channel at a higher price point for Disney plus...especially when Paramount gave them a free year, which means all of Nick...(yes, that's why I could drop)...

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Sure, but those streaming channels you’re talking about don’t have films that are losing hundreds of millions of dollars by being on there so early.

 

It’s interesting what you say, but I wouldn’t say it to be typical tons of families would cancel Disney+ because a new movie doesn’t go on there seven weeks after opening? 
 

We’re talking about three or four animated films a year here, that should be making so much more money. Is all that revenue really worth giving up for what I would bet is an absolutely tiny fraction of consumers who would cancel over this?

This and ALL of the Marvel, WDAS, Pixar, Avatar, etc. is eventually free forever (provided you're a subscriber) on Disney+. So, exactly, even if it takes a few more weeks to get there, it's eventually there... You don't have to rent or buy it. It's just there and always available. I agree more with you here but I do respect TwoMisfits reasoning for sure.

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:

 

 

justice for Buzz Lightyear of Star Command 
 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Do you think TGM has a shot at 30M+ each of the next two weekends considering the second of those two weekends is the 4th of July weekend with the holiday on a Monday and it's likely to have a decent amount of premium screens back over said holiday weekend?

 

Yea it has a shot. It's only dropping about 12% this weekend and next weekend openers combined will likely hit $60M at best. So lets say $36M next weekend (20% drop) and then the weekend after has another PG movie opening which won't cross audiences with TGM and then Monday is the 4th so I think a 15-20% drop is feasible there. 

The 7th weekend where Thor opens will likely be the first "big" drop in the coming weeks. I expect probably 40-45%. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by ZurgXXR

[titanic2187]

 

 

Super great hold for DS2 as the movie is looking for a sub-20% drop this weekend. One last nice hold and you can consider this is sort of like a farewell run before June 22. This prove again, 45 days window isn't long. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Minions is going to be at least splitting PLF with Top Gun I expect 

All of the theaters around me with their Minions tickets on sale are giving it the whole day on those screens. They could always remove those last shows if they sell nothing, though chains may have signed a contract with Universal (since it's the movie anchoring 4th of July weekend this year).

[LonePirate]

The absolute worst thing about Lightyear's underperformance will be the insufferable right wing blowhards declaring victory over Disney for its cultural and political viewpoints.