Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[M37]

51 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$12m TG2

$10.7m JWD

$10m Elvis

$7.2m BP

$7m LY

 

Pretty weak Saturdays for both of the new releases, especially given reviews/WOM. Do think there may have been impacts from social events, especially for Elvis but also BP, given the more female leaning draws

 

And I got lambasted in last weekend's thread for suggesting that TGM could win this weekend as the only film over $30M ...

.

[TinaDuraes]

48 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

rip Butler's Oscar chances

The Eyes of Tammy Faye did less than 3 million in its entire theatrical run and Jessica Chastain still won. Box office means nothing for Oscars (hell, we just had a streaming movie win Best Picture)

[DAR]

37 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I think the 2nd trailer didn't do it any favors and they should have never released that one in favor of the one they released earlier this week.  The run time and Baz's style are also challengs with the demographics that came in.  I also think that a slight impact of politics this week kept women (the core audience per polling) occupied.  

 

With that said, it still put up a good and ecouraging number given all factors and should play strong for another month.  

Do you see it surpassing Gatsby as Luhrman’s highest grossing film?

[Rebeccas]

5 minutes ago, TinaDuraes said:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye did less than 3 million in its entire theatrical run and Jessica Chastain still won. Box office means nothing for Oscars (hell, we just had a streaming movie win Best Picture)

Very different for actresses. There is a huge correlation between Best Actor winners and their films getting into Best Picture, and a movie like Elvis with a low 60s on MC would need to be a smash hit at the box office to get in. 

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:

If I didn't like Moulin Rouge or Great Gatsby will I like Elvis?

How can you not like the great gatsby, old sport?

[EmpireCity]

36 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I doubt it makes money but why hasn't MGM/Amazon dropped a trailer and release date for Ron Howard's 13 Lives? They announced recently they were moving it to August from Nov. Wouldn't be huge but test screenings were supposedly astounding and at least it's SOME content for theaters until streaming in a dreary month

 

I saw the trailer (or pretty much a trailer) for this almost a year ago now.  It looked great and it fucking pisses me off that Amazon is so inept.  

[Rebeccas]

7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I saw the trailer (or pretty much a trailer) for this almost a year ago now.  It looked great and it fucking pisses me off that Amazon is so inept.  

Amazon had one great Oscar campaign (Manchester by the Sea) and said that's all for us. 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I have TGM at 630-640 at the moment. +10-20M with Labor Day expansion.

 

Good call @Legion and Thunder of A+ & 4000+ Top 10.

Frankly pretty crazy that it didn't kill streak despite the low opening.  

 

I think I noticed the trend when it was just 3/3 and made it as a small sample size joke -- but here we are at 6/6 and it's still unbroken.

 

Whatever is first movie to miss I will give tons of grief

[LonePirate]

There are seven summer films that have grossed more than TGM and it looks set to surpass all of them except for Endgame. TGM spotted Endgame over $230M on its opening weekend and will likely finish behind it by less than $150M. It will be sitting at a multiplier of roughly 4.14 after Sunday and hitting something north of 5.60 (about $706M) is definitely possible. Simply insane.

 

A few pages back included talk of Butler's Oscar chances for Elvis. I think we need to be talking about Cruise's Oscar chances instead. Paramount will be pushing hard for him to win one for his career much like when John Wayne finally won his Oscar.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

11 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I saw the trailer (or pretty much a trailer) for this almost a year ago now.  It looked great and it fucking pisses me off that Amazon is so inept.  

The deal for MGM and Amazon seems to be a mess

[Cmasterclay]

Elvis doing 100 million would probably make Butler the highest grossing Oscar contender of the year unless they really go for Cruise in Top Gun, he very well miss a nomination but a wholly decent box office total is not gonna be why.

 

A terrible theory I unfortunately believe explains why it didn't break out: the trailers for Elvis had too much rap music and coolness for the olds it was supposed to appeal to. (and I still think this number is solid considering news impacts and other adult films performances)

[Rebeccas]

Absolutely zero chance Cruise gets nominated for Top Gun lol please. This is RDJ for Endgame or Charlize Theron for Fury Road all over again. He will win the moment he goes and makes a serious/prestige movie though, the goodwill is there, he just needs to be in a baity film. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Elvis doing 100 million would probably make Butler the highest grossing Oscar contender of the year unless they really go for Cruise in Top Gun, he very well miss a nomination but a wholly decent box office total is not gonna be why.

 

A terrible theory I unfortunately believe explains why it didn't break out: the trailers for Elvis had too much rap music and coolness for the olds it was supposed to appeal to. (and I still think this number is solid considering news impacts and other adult films performances)

There were literal walkouts when Doja Cat started playing in Elvis in my theater so you're probably spot-on lol. And Baz doing this in Gatsby surely contributed to that cinemascore being as low as it is. EmpireCity is probably correct, too, that the flashy 2nd trailer strained to appeal to younger audiences who were never going to show out for this while also alienating the old demo to some degree

 

I think people who stick out for the first hour or so will appreciate the final hour when it's more Elvis focused and not AS overly Bazzy, hence the A- cinemascore so hopefully that wom kicks in

[ban1o]

Austin was never going to win, even if this broke out lmao. I really think the people predicting a win were getting way ahead of themselves.   I think a nomination is likely though.  His Spielberg Show will be coming out later this year so he'll still be a fresh face in voters minds. 

[Ethan Hunt]

5 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Absolutely zero chance Cruise gets nominated for Top Gun lol please. This is RDJ for Endgame or Charlize Theron for Fury Road all over again. He will win the moment he goes and makes a serious/prestige movie though, the goodwill is there, he just needs to be in a baity film. 

I mean sure I mostly agree BUT feel like this line of thinking was used about Joaquin for Joker too 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, ban1o said:

Austin was never going to win, even if this broke out lmao. I really think the people predicting a win were getting way ahead of themselves.

Do you have a crystal ball?

[ban1o]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Do you have a crystal ball?

Yes I do. And it told me Austin ain't winning lmao. 

 

But seriously an actor playing a character in a A Baz Luhrman movie released in June  played by young actor who is not very well known had a very low chance of winning. Again a nomination is likely imo. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by ban1o

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, ban1o said:

Yes I do. And it told me Austin ain't winning lmao. 

 

But seriously A character in a A Baz Luhrman movie released in June  played by young actor who is not very well known had a very low chance of winning. Again a nomination is likely imo. 

I'm sure that same crystal ball told you CODA wasn't winning Best Picture either

[ban1o]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'm sure that same crystal ball told you CODA wasn't winning Best Picture either

lol when did I ever say CODA wasn't going to win BP... I actually loved CODA too lmao 🤣

 

 

[TinaDuraes]

1 hour ago, Rebeccas said:

Very different for actresses. There is a huge correlation between Best Actor winners and their films getting into Best Picture, and a movie like Elvis with a low 60s on MC would need to be a smash hit at the box office to get in. 

Ok then, King Richard bombed at the box office and Will Smith still won. None of the Best Actors contenders will make much money unless they really nominate Cruise or people are hyped for Brendan Fraser comeback and the new Aronofsky performs like Black Swan.