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Weekly Thread 6/27-6/20

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Trying to determine why a film is suddenly experiencing an atypical weekday pattern in its 5th of release is not poo-pooing the numbers …

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I appreciate Box Office Pro still reports studio projections in their weekend forecasts. Even though they're basically useless, it's fun to see how much the studio lowballs, even in comparison to the trades. For the record, Universal is projecting 60M 4-day for Minions 2, compare that to the 70M 4-day figure by the trades and the 90M - 100M 4 day projection by Box Office Pro. Deadline used to regularly report studio projections but now they only do it occasionally.

 

Elvis' studio projection was 25M compared to the more accurate 30M of the trades.

Edited by Alex SciChannel
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Elvis and BP seems to be doing really good. 

 

I don´t see much reason to expect 45% drop for Elvis like BOP is predicting, especially with a holiday coming. I think this can do 25M 4-day and get 72-73M by monday, which would lock +100M finish. 

 

That 46% drop for Black Phone looks very good, hopefully it will happens, with 50M by monday i think 75-80M finish can happen.

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1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

$4.25m for TG2

$4m for Elvis

$3m for JWD

$2.5m for BP

$2.2m for LY

 

Fun weekday see-saw for the top position.

 

With that number TGM is still down only 35% from two weeks ago.

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Shanghai theaters will reopen next week, and JWD will stay in Chinese theaters for another month. Shanghai's box office usually is ~5% of the total box office, so that's roughly 10m box office gross. If the irrational consumption after lockdown is strong, I can see it making more than that. Of course we have to consider the bad WOM, especially for city like Shanghai, WOM is very important for its leg, so anything can happen.

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4 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

where will it be at the end of its run?

 

 

It will be very close to 100M before this weekend. Add around 9M (50% drop) for 4th July weekend due to direct competition. And then x2 of that weekend gross. Likely, 130M DOM. Second lowest Pixar grosser.

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6 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$4.25m for TG2

$4m for Elvis

$3m for JWD

$2.5m for BP

$2.2m for LY

 

Solid hold for The Black Phone (-22.4%) and JWD (-23.9%). Hopefully for the latter it ends up above the 3M mark in the actuals. Lightyear has a pretty steep Wednesday drop at -27.2%

Edited by Alex SciChannel
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/kylehenderson/2022/06/28/tom-cruises-all-time-career-earnings-top-1-billion/?sh=83ed62127e9f

 

Quote

Forbes estimates that Cruise will likely gross more than $100 million altogether from Maverick, based on our estimates of additional revenue that will come in from other sources like airlines, streaming and TV networks. That would set a new record for an actor’s take from a single movie, besting Will Smith’s payout from Men In Black 3.

 

Edited by BruiseCruise
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