Weekend Thread | October 7-10th | Smile grins with a powerful $18.5m second weekend (18% drop!), Lyle hums a tune to $11.4m, Amsterdam gets karma'd with $6.4m

[DAJK]

I would be shocked if Smile did not increase substantially with actuals. That Sunday drop is far too harsh, that estimate would mean a harder Sunday drop this week than last week. If you look at previous Indigenous People's Day weekends, the Sunday holds are much stronger than usual. Not going to be surprised at all if it increases nearly a full million from estimates (Saturday at 7.4 also seems a bit low, I could see it climbing to roughly 7.6 with actuals).

[grim22]

 

 

[CJohn]

20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Smile:

 

Remainder of this week: 8.9M (58.8M Total)

Oct 14: 13.2M (6.8M weekdays, 78.8M Total)

Oct 21: 10.6M (5.1M weekdays, 94.5M Total)

Oct 28: 9.6M (4.5M weekdays, 108.6M Total)

Nov 4: 5.3M (2.5M weekdays, 116.4M Total)

Nov 11: 2.8M (1.4M weekdays, 120.6M Total)

Nov 18: 1.5M (700k weekdays, 122.8M Total)

Nov 25: 500k (200k weekdays, 123.5M Total)

Final Total: 125M (5.53x)

 

If it manages to drop sub-20% against Halloween and/or not crater after October 31, 140 is on the table. Wild run so far.

And now you jinxed it. Fucking hell. Someone stop this man.

13 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

A box office legend gone. RIP

 

 

Fuck. All the good memories from her box office articles, and she was still young. 

[Valonqar]

Smile is the story of the season. No other Sep opener comes close. 

 

RIP Legend. 

[WayneBorg]

MINIONS 2 - Updated Dom, OS, and WW estimates

 

Domestic Box Office	$367,679,180	Details
International Box Office	$559,802,000	Details
Worldwide Box Office	$927,481,180

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I expected a smidge higher for TAR tbh

[Krissykins]

RIP Nikki Finke

[Valonqar]

14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I expected a smidge higher for TAR tbh

 

could go up with actuals

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I expected a smidge higher for TAR tbh

Given the relatively low ceiling still for specialty fare in the post-pandemic era, it's a strong result, especially for a 2 hour, 40 minute character drama (Pizza and Everything obviously drew younger demographics). Not sure how it'll expand, especially when it won't really get the chance to reap the benefits of Oscar buzz as an October release unless Universal/Focus give it an extended window (their current deal means it's going to be on PVOD by Thanksgiving and on Peacock/out of theaters completely by Christmas), but for now, a total similar to the $12M Carol made seems like a good expectation.

Edited October 9, 2022 by filmlover

[motionpic05]

It will be interesting to see if Smile's overperformance has an impact on Halloween Ends next weekend...

I believe Ends numbers could be dependent on early WOM

Edited October 9, 2022 by motionpic05

[Valonqar]

where are OS numbers?

[Krissykins]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

where are OS numbers?

some Worldwide totals I seen:

 

Smile is at $89.9m 

Don’t Worry Darling $69.3m

Ticket To Paradise $61m

The Woman King $64.1m

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

some Worldwide totals I seen:

 

Smile is at $89.9m 

Don’t Worry Darling $69.3m

Ticket To Paradise $61m

The Woman King $64.1m

 

Thank you! Smile kicked everyone's ass and it's so well deserved. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Given the relatively low ceiling still for specialty fare in the post-pandemic era, it's a strong result, especially for a 2 hour, 40 minute character drama (Pizza and Everything obviously drew younger demographics). Not sure how it'll expand, especially when it won't really get the chance to reap the benefits of Oscar buzz as an October release unless Universal/Focus give it an extended window (their current deal means it's going to be on PVOD by Thanksgiving and on Peacock/out of theaters completely by Christmas), but for now, a total similar to the $12M Carol made seems like a good expectation.

It's the best reviewed film of the year. It's a total coastal film. It has Cate Blanchett in possibly her most acclaimed performance. It's not even performing on par with pre-COVID speciality releases. The adult marketplace truly must be dead

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Halloween Ends has like no buzz at all

[The Wild Eric]

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Halloween Ends has like no buzz at all

Barring positive reviews (which are unlikely after reading up on recent rumours) it'll pay for the sins of Kills. I bet Smile will outgross it in the end.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Barring positive reviews (which are unlikely after reading up on recent rumours) it'll pay for the sins of Kills. I bet Smile will outgross it in the end.

Yeah Kills really is a franchise stopper. I remember seeing the trailer for Kills with almost EVERY movie for months last year. That felt like it had much more buzz (makes sense since it was pushed from 2020 and followed 18)

 

(Kills is not a good movie by any means but I prefer it over 18)

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It's the best reviewed film of the year. It's a total coastal film. It has Cate Blanchett in possibly her most acclaimed performance. It's not even performing on par with pre-COVID speciality releases. The adult marketplace truly must be dead

I mean, it just came out and the specialty market still hasn't fully recovered (in large part because some of the main locations to see those kinds of movies like the ArcLight Hollywood went under during the pandemic and have yet to reopen). If it stumbles upon expansion then that's where the concern will be.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It's the best reviewed film of the year. It's a total coastal film. It has Cate Blanchett in possibly her most acclaimed performance. It's not even performing on par with pre-COVID speciality releases. The adult marketplace truly must be dead

It doesn't help that the LA market lost the speciality theaters that treated new limited releases like the MCU. The Arclight would have a La La Land on 5-6 screens, including the Cineramadome with 800 seats, that's how movies like that could post 100K per theater averages. Now when that kind of movie debuts in Los Angeles, it just gets a couple of screens at an AMC or two. There's less capacity than before at the LA arthouse and maybe the Arclight lovers are not rushing out the same way to The Grove or wherever.