THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

 

Looking over all of the numbers in the tracking thread, I've got a few confidence levels for BPWF's opening weekend....

 

> $25M previews = 99%

> $26M previews = 94%

> $27M previews = 77%

> $28M previews = 59%

> $29M previews = 33%

> $30M previews = 16%

> $31M previews = 7%

> $32M previews = 1%

 

> $160M OW = 99% 

> $165M OW = 98%

> $170M OW = 91%

> $175M OW = 78%

> $180M OW = 62%

> $185M OW = 43%
> $190M OW = 29%

> $195M OW = 11%

> $200M OW = 4% 

 

[GOGODanca]

First ones OS performance also had the IW lead-up to give it a big boost

[CJohn]

The first one did 517M OS without China + Russia + Ukraine. Considering the awful exchange rates, change of habits, economic crysis, MCU fatigue and poorly received recent entries on both movies and TV sides, I would say a 400M OS total is a win.

[Brainbug]

42 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

Looking over all of the numbers in the tracking thread, I've got a few confidence levels for BPWF's opening weekend....

 

> $25M previews = 99%

> $26M previews = 94%

> $27M previews = 77%

> $28M previews = 59%

> $29M previews = 33%

> $30M previews = 16%

> $31M previews = 7%

> $32M previews = 1%

 

> $160M OW = 99% 

> $165M OW = 98%

> $170M OW = 91%

> $175M OW = 78%

> $180M OW = 62%

> $185M OW = 43%
> $190M OW = 29%

> $195M OW = 11%

> $200M OW = 4% 

 

 

I dont know what the generel expectations for this movie were/are, but an OW in the 170 - 180M range for BP2 would be very good in my book. The first one was a cultural phenomenon in the US and had added IW Hype, while the sequel has a lot of hurdles in its way (which many here have already pointed out). 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Blankments said:

is black panther mcu? i don't think so!

I suppose if you remove complete African American demo, that will still be around $100M+ OW from all other demos. 

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, LVB said:

 

My Twitter feed is predominantly in Spanish and most of the reactions I've read so far are positive. I don't follow a lot of Mexicans, though.

Reviews from Spain are just fine. Some people call it better than the first one but of course we don't know how the story will translate for some audience members.

 

From Mexican side it seems to be doing well both in reviews and reactions but nothing astounding. It also seems to be getting a better reception than the first one but of course there's some skew and still pacing is the negative aspect that gets brought up the most.

[Grebacio]

Audiences Scores are starting to pop up on RT
86% Verified, 4.5 out of 5 Avg Score. Less than 50 votes so it will def change.
67% All Audiences, 3.6 out of 5 Avg Score. 1k+ votes

[Menor the Destroyer]

All audience should be ignored for the same reason that we never took RT scores seriously before the system switched. 

 

Verified currently 92%, will bounce around until the sample size gets large enough so let's see where it lands. 

[jedijake]

9 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

All audience should be ignored for the same reason that we never took RT scores seriously before the system switched. 

 

Verified currently 92%, will bounce around until the sample size gets large enough so let's see where it lands. 

Do audience scores drop quickly the way critic scores do?

[Grebacio]

Just now, jedijake said:

Do audience scores drop quickly the way critic scores do?

Verified tend to change a lot (either for better or for worse) before 2.5k votes. It stabalizes after that

[jedijake]

Certainly this will get a better audience score than TROS and TLK (I liked them both but know what the public thinks).

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

Certainly this will get a better audience score than TROS and TLK (I liked them both but know what the public thinks).

There's no certainty, TLK had overall strong audience scores and TROS was bad but not abysmal in that department.

[jedijake]

I head-canon the HELL out of TROS with another story imbedded in there. It's the only way I can sleep at night LOL.

 

Anyway-DAMN RT! Why does it say 100+ reviews at 92%one minute and then, 5 minutes later when I refresh, it says fewer than 50 reviews at 86%?

Edited November 11, 2022 by jedijake

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Anyway-DAMN RT! Why does it say 100+ reviews at 92%one minute and then, 5 minutes later when I refresh, it says fewer than 50 reviews at 86%?

RT is trying to handle all the reviews coming in, and their servers aren’t great. Just take a breather, because it will all be clear and stable tomorrow

[thajdikt]

33 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Audiences Scores are starting to pop up on RT
86% Verified, 4.5 out of 5 Avg Score. Less than 50 votes so it will def change.
67% All Audiences, 3.6 out of 5 Avg Score. 1k+ votes

The all audiences is filled with many giving it either one stars or five stars. Pretty hard reviewbombing and fanboying going on there. Will never understand people that reviewbomb shit. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by thajdikt

[GOGODanca]

That's why you wait for PostTrak and cinemascore 

[GOGODanca]

 

[jedijake]

7 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

RT is trying to handle all the reviews coming in, and their servers aren’t great. Just take a breather, because it will all be clear and stable tomorrow

Thanks! But there's no breathing allowed. Breathing is for p*$$ies when it comes to your most anticipated movie in 3 years LOL.

 

But yeah, thanks for the intel.

[DAJK]

I mean, EC is right in that tweet. Walk-ups are much much stronger for this tonight than either of 2022’s MCU entries.

[Blankments]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

I mean, EC is right in that tweet. Walk-ups are much much stronger for this tonight than either of 2022’s MCU entries.

 

no one should be surprised by this; I’d explain why but I’ve been saying it for months lol

 

still think this will be the top domestic opening this year; obviously we’ll see but feeling good vibes as I Uber to my screening