THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, exomassey said:

Maybe sales aren’t really kicking into gear because the last two MCU (Multiverse of Madness and Thor 4) were a bit underwhelming. Audiences are more cautious.

 

Maybe it’s MCU fatigue or sometimes sequels just drop. The 1st one was such a cultural phenomenon you can’t really recreate that.

 

 

I think there's definitely a bit of that, yeah.

 

I just hope walkups suprise is all and that maybe we can can come to the conclusion that Black Panther is a very walkup driven franchise. We'll see ...

 

Personally I don't even think the November record is in the bag of this does $27M in previews. But again, let's see on those walkups.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

More like apathy I suppose. We'll see how things pan out. If it is in the $170 million range, then apathy and MCU exhaustion may be the issue. Spiderman will always be big because he's top 3 in superhero popularity. But this one ha the marketing and had the trailer/teaser excitement and social media buzz.

 

But let's not count the dead chickens before they die.

 

But Kang Dynasty doesn't really have a ton of build up. Last episode of Loki and then one other movie. This is unlike the constant Thanos brooding in several movies.

 

So, if it drops to my $125-$155M OW range from a few weeks ago (where I got laughed off the boards for)...

 

I mean, it's really hard to open a movie about a beloved main character no longer in his own movie.

And it's really hard to open a long, sad movie, especially after a week of non-happiness with elections...no matter how rewarding the viewing might be.

And it's really hard to do it all after 2 REALLY subpar MCU openings this year.

 

When I made my prediction, I said $250M for the main demo and $80M for the rest.  I just don't see much GA (aka non-invested MCU folks) showing up if they are not the main demo in this ticket-inflationary environment.  So, I don't see families coming in force if they are not main demo.  And I don't see non-subscribers doing that either if they are not already MCU-enthusiastic or in the main demo.

 

And I do think Friday will be the best day for this weekend.  So, I wouldn't totally panic off Thursday.  Friday will be the highest day, and then I expect a real drop Saturday.

[cax16]

22 minutes ago, LVB said:

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by cax16

[Verrows]

My over/under is $170M. I think the final number will come in right around that.

 

27

55

50

35.5

167.5

[IronJimbo]

hmmm hopefully this is an indicator of the state of the MCU rather than the state of cinema, why not both I suppose

[Blankments]

is black panther mcu? i don't think so!

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Verrows said:

My over/under is $170M. I think the final number will come in right around that.

 

27

55

50

35.5

167.5

 

28 - 55 - 55 - 41

[Eric Loves Rey]

7 minutes ago, Blankments said:

is black panther mcu? i don't think so!

Are we MCU?????????

[Factcheck]

12 minutes ago, Blankments said:

is black panther mcu? i don't think so!

BP is MCU but the character has lost importance in the eyes of public when Chadwick died & Marvel decided not to recast T'challa. People were seeing T'challa as one of the big 3 of current saga but now they don't even consider BP in big 5. Whatever excitement for this movie is because of T'challa tribute & Wakanda.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Factcheck

[Blankments]

1 minute ago, Eric Killmonger said:

Are we MCU?????????

you never know, we ARE in the multiverse saga

[Blankments]

2 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

BP is MCU but the character have lost importance in the eyes of public when Chadwick died & Marvel decided not to recast T'challa. People were seeing T'challa as one of the big 3 of current saga but now they don't even consider the character in big 5. Whatever excitement for this movie is because of T'challa tribute & Wakanda.

 

nah, black panther (the franchise) is bigger than most mcu even without t'challa. this might drop, but it'll be a standard sequel drop unrelated to the receptions of MoM or LaT. Only phase 4 movie my parents saw was NWH and they got tix to see this this coming week; the audience is different than the MCU core

 

(again, not saying it won't drop but if it's walkup heavy, which i feel like we're all counting on to some degree, that plays directly against the mcu pattern of these weekends. suppose we'll see tho!)

[Verrows]

8 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

28 - 55 - 55 - 41

Well I'd certainly prefer the flat Saturday and your final number overall (179)!

[jedijake]

I said previously that if this drops more JWFK dropped from JW, it would be disastrous. Thus, less than $445 million domestic would be disastrous.

 

Now some are saying this may not even open with $170 million? Good God!!!

Edited November 10, 2022 by jedijake

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

I said previously that if this drops more JWFK dropped from JW, it would be disastrous.

 

Now some are saying this may not even open with $170 million? Good God!!!

 

That would not be more than JWFK from JW. 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I said previously that if this drops more JWFK dropped from JW, it would be disastrous. Thus, less than $445 million domestic would be disastrous.

 

Now some are saying this may not even open with $170 million? Good God!!!

 

I mean, while I'm saying that, I'm also saying I could be wrong, too.  It's a good sign that Cinemark has a wait queue right now - that at least seems to indicate an audience that might be late breaking buyers...

[jedijake]

11 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

That would not be more than JWFK from JW. 

I meant the total domestic drop. If BPWF opens less than $170 million, it will not make $446 million overall. While the OW won't have the same drop, the domestic drop would be bigger.

 

Remember, JWFK had a 2.81x multiplier. If BPWF opens less than $170 million, it will likely not even be close to a 2.81X. Maybe 2.60X which would give it around $440 m.

 

What I am hoping for is that people wanting to buy tickets have seen a lot of empty seats, so they decided to wait until the day before to get tickets.

Edited November 10, 2022 by jedijake

[Ethan Hunt]

The movie is gonna open over 200M lol

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

The movie is gonna open over 200M lol

We all wish. I don't think Friday/Saturday/Sunday tracking is showing that.

[JustLurking]

13 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

That would not be more than JWFK from JW. 

If this opens to 180 or below it will probably be very close adjusted. Keeping in mind that I'm still thinking it does 190M ish.

[M37]

Thor L&T had middling WOM and a summer, post 4th of July Friday, and yet still saw a moderate increase (+4%) for Saturday. MoM was a far more immediate hype/avoid spoilers release and was +6%.

 

Its an open question where Friday winds up relative to Thur, but even with the holiday (and for demo reasons) I’m expecting at least a +10% Sat/-30% Sun. BPWF is IMO a bit like Jurassic franchie in that despite the added anticipation of a sequel, there’s just a limit to how frontloaded (Th/Fri heavy) it will be (in relation to other MCU titles)