THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[THUNDER BIRD]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If Avatar 2 has same admits as Avatar 1, it do $1.1B+ with ease. 

 

If it drop 35% like TLJ or JW:FK, it do $725M

If it drop 30% like TDKR or Avengers: AOU, it do $800M

10% drop with 1 Billion+ total

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

Tbh I am also sorta thinking a big drop for Avatar 2 (~40% admits), it feels like the second trailer just came and went without much buzz. But it's such a hard movie to predict and Christmas makes things even more tricky. 

 

Yea I'm also thinking that now (40-50%). If A2 can go sub 30% in admissions domestically, I'd basically view that as a better performance than A1. 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

What is Till? The movie goes up 1% when BPWF is here.

 

Nov 11, 2022

-

$1,875,580

+1%

2,136

$878

$9,295,752

5

 

It's a biopic about 50s civil rights activist Mamie Till-Bradley

[Spidey Freak]

37 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Dceu fucked up.

 

MCU,starwars and jurrasic franchise have clearly spoilt us.

 

SW films are taking a break because they became even more unreliable at the BO than DC and neither SW nor Jurassic can sustain as many films as DC

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Till 

[M37]

Glad to see some of you finally coming around to the post-pandemic reduced theatrical audience argument 

 

As someone who has been beating this drum for a while, IMO the confluence of factors - reduced audience pool, premium ticket prices, higher PLF share and more frontloadedness - makes the OW/week essentially directly comparable to before times (without adjustments) 

 

Its more the total gross, the weaker legs, where the reduction in potential is more noticeable. With that said, a strong WOM film - TGM, EEAAO, Smile - can buck the trend and hold on par with previous long leg titles, even moreso with a lack of competition (NWH, Shang-Chi). But as the release calendar begins to fill back in, those may become even more rare 

[Factcheck]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

The movie is literally named Multiverse of Madness

So? Multiverse didn't mean Secret Wars or Civil War or a big Avengers-level event; it was just a normal sequel to Doctor Strange, just like L&T was just a normal sequel to Ragnarok. If people had assumed Multiverse of Madness was a big event movie, then it was their fault, not Marvel Studios'.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

Some folks around here seem to need to be reminded of the perspective that, pound for pound, not as single movie that we are talking about here: Not Avatar, Not WF, not Top Gun Maverick, not Infinity War, is even vaguely in the same ionosphere of actual relative domestic box office success as Gone With the Wind.

 

Nor will they.

 

Nor is it physically possible in the year 2022.

 

Nor will they come within anything that might feasibly be described as 'close'.

 

And.......that doesn't for one instance make them any less successful. Everything is relative and that's ok.

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

Tbh I am also sorta thinking a big drop for Avatar 2 (~40% admits), it feels like the second trailer just came and went without much buzz. But it's such a hard movie to predict and Christmas makes things even more tricky. 

Actually it is not the Christmas that make things tricky, it is the reception. A2 is like TGM, people know it is coming but most people stay "wait and see" approach. We are know what happened to TGM, when a A+ level WOM start spreading, those hidden interest beneath the internet will start translate into action. And from there, sky is the limit. 

 

It all come down if JC can produce a movie that blow people mind and heart. Bare minimum, the movie will play TLK 2019, a successful disappointment of $1.7bn.  

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Tbh I am also sorta thinking a big drop for Avatar 2 (~40% admits), it feels like the second trailer just came and went without much buzz. But it's such a hard movie to predict and Christmas makes things even more tricky. 

you mean the trailer that has more than doubled its 24 hours views on Youtube in 11 days.

~125M views on Youtube so far.

[Flopped]

Wild that his first movie In The Bedroom made 36M in the US on a 2M budget, with no starpower. Different times. 

 

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

4 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

It was just a normal sequel to Doctor Strange, just like L&T was just a normal sequel to Ragnarok. If people had assumed Multiverse of Madness was a big event movie, then it was their fault, not Marvel Studios'.

No, just no.

 

People didn't "assume" anything, it was marketed as such.

 

And yes, Title of movie being "Multiverse of Madness" is wrong marketing. 

[AnDr3s]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Actually it is not the Christmas that make things tricky, it is the reception. A2 is like TGM, people know it is coming but most people stay "wait and see" approach.

that would mean over 1 billie pretty easily

[charlie Jatinder]

My biggest concern is that America let down Avatar 1. Internationally, Avatar did much better. Heck, even in Canada Avatar is still the biggest grosser, bigger than TFA. 

 

And what did Avatar do in US? Just around TDK admits, which of course is GREAT HUGE, (choose your praise) but not like Canada or UK where it was like 30-40% more.

 

TBH I would actually expect A2 to do same or grow over A1 to be closer to how it will perform in UK, CAN and ROW. If NWH can do 60M+ admits in US, A2 should do much BETTER.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

you mean the trailer that has more than doubled its 24 hours views on Youtube in 11 days.

~125M views on Youtube so far.

Doubling 24 hour views is normal.

[Carlangonz]

10 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

So? Multiverse didn't mean Secret Wars or Civil War or a big Avengers-level event; it was just a normal sequel to Doctor Strange,

This movie came out after another movie where the multiverse opened up, Strange played a part in it and its trailer literally played as a post-credits scene.

 

Say what you want but is foolish to think anyone would see this as a simple Doctor Strange sequel after ALL the above mentioned. If otherwise then someone over Marvel Studios has to be fired because for a franchise that has lasted this long with this success is plain clueless.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Carlangonz

[Flopped]

 

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

What is Till? The movie goes up 1% when BPWF is here.

 

Nov 11, 2022

-

$1,875,580

+1%

2,136

$878

$9,295,752

5

 

 

It's about Emmett Till.

 

An 14 year old black boy who was abducted, tortured and lynched during 1955 because people thought he whistled at a white girl. He was from Chicago visiting family in Mississippi. 

 

He became a martyr for the civil rights movement when his mother demanded he have an open casket so the world could see and when the killers were acquitted.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My biggest concern is that America let down Avatar 1. Internationally, Avatar did much better. Heck, even in Canada Avatar is still the biggest grosser, bigger than TFA. 

 

And what did Avatar do in US? Just around TDK admits, which of course is GREAT HUGE, (choose your praise) but not like Canada or UK where it was like 30-40% more.

 

TBH I would actually expect A2 to do same or grow over A1 to be closer to how it will perform in UK, CAN and ROW. If NWH can do 60M+ admits in US, A2 should do much BETTER.

It's funny really how Domestic is probably one of the absolute worst markets for Avatar relative to it's size.

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My biggest concern is that America let down Avatar 1. Internationally, Avatar did much better. Heck, even in Canada Avatar is still the biggest grosser, bigger than TFA. 

 

And what did Avatar do in US? Just around TDK admits, which of course is GREAT HUGE, (choose your praise) but not like Canada or UK where it was like 30-40% more.

 

TBH I would actually expect A2 to do same or grow over A1 to be closer to how it will perform in UK, CAN and ROW. If NWH can do 60M+ admits in US, A2 should do much BETTER.

If that happens then 1.2 Billion Domestic.

 

Exchange rates are improving, Avatar did 2 Billion, Avatar 2 can do 2.2-2.4 Billion.

 

3.4-3.6 Billion Possible.