A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[CJohn]

Theaters are dead.

 

How is Anthony spinning this disastrous opening?

[krla]

Just now, JustLurking said:

I'm going to point out that TGM's multiplier being 5.65 is just because of memorial day. Without that shift in demand to monday it would've opened similarly to JWD and end with something more like ~4.95x.

 

Not saying that's not great, but worth keeping in mind there.

There's also the possibility that if it wasn't a holiday weekend, that it would have had a smaller OW, but good WoM would have carried it to a similar gross, so its legs would actually be longer. If TGM hadn't lost its PLFs after the second weekend, it might have grossed tens of millions more. If there were nationwide powerouts on opening night, its legs may have been even longer. If Trump had won in 2020, he may have mandated every man, woman, and child, to watch TGM in theaters which would extend its legs even further. If Elon Musk was the CEO of Paramount he may have started calling the execs at IMAX pedos for taking away screens from TGM..

 

Avatar 2 should have, in theory, absolutely no issue surpassing TGM's multiplier. It'll hold most PLFs for a month or two; it has holidays ahead (though those saturdays may take a beating..), it has little competition, it seems to be positively received by critics and audiences. If it can't come close to that kind of multiplier, then I think the problem it faces is that theaters might start slashing showtimes. You can show Puss in Boots roughly twice in the same time span as Avatar 2. And the great thing about families is that they bring kids, and kids tend to be spoiled (especially at the movies), and spoiling a kid at the movies means buying highly inflated popcorn, drinks, and other snacks. I guarantee a theater will make more from showing Puss in Boots with only 20% of seats sold, compared to a sold out Avatar 2. And Puss in Boots may be the first kids movie since summer that will fill seats. It could be a real threat to Avatar. 

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Avatar 2 2/10.

 

This is what took Cameron 10 years? Should have ended with A1. 

[Cap]

Late night/early morning shit posting:

 

Hey Tracking Thread, how many PLF screens were available of the 4400 screens it’s playing on this weekend? Since there could be an argument made that no one’s seen it in regular 2D, you could say that it only opened on [insert however many PLFs are available]. Makes that 135M OW waaaaaaaaay more impressive. 
 

It’s just a matter of how you manipulate the data.

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, krla said:

There's also the possibility that if it wasn't a holiday weekend, that it would have had a smaller OW, but good WoM would have carried it to a similar gross, so its legs would actually be longer. If TGM hadn't lost its PLFs after the second weekend, it might have grossed tens of millions more. If there were nationwide powerouts on opening night, its legs may have been even longer. If Trump had won in 2020, he may have mandated every man, woman, and child, to watch TGM in theaters which would extend its legs even further. If Elon Musk was the CEO of Paramount he may have started calling the execs at IMAX pedos for taking away screens from TGM..

 

Avatar 2 should have, in theory, absolutely no issue surpassing TGM's multiplier. It'll hold most PLFs for a month or two; it has holidays ahead (though those saturdays may take a beating..), it has little competition, it seems to be positively received by critics and audiences. If it can't come close to that kind of multiplier, then I think the problem it faces is that theaters might start slashing showtimes. You can show Puss in Boots roughly twice in the same time span as Avatar 2. And the great thing about families is that they bring kids, and kids tend to be spoiled (especially at the movies), and spoiling a kid at the movies means buying highly inflated popcorn, drinks, and other snacks. I guarantee a theater will make more from showing Puss in Boots with only 20% of seats sold, compared to a sold out Avatar 2. And Puss in Boots may be the first kids movie since summer that will fill seats. It could be a real threat to Avatar. 

Not sure why you're making impossible what ifs when I am simply adjusting its OW for the holiday shifting demand around just for sake of having more 'proper' legs comparisons. Sure without holiday it probably opens smaller than a simple number shift but even then a more realistic OW would've been around ~140M. Which isn't a knock to TGM, I'm just saying the multiplier number is slightly drugged up by holiday monday, which should be worth keeping in mind if people want to use TGM as a multiplier comparison.

 

I don't really think Puss will be any threat, mostly because if it takes away showtimes they won't be the PLFs which are what A2 is selling best on by far anyway. If multiplier disappoints, that will be entirely the film's own doing.

Edited December 18, 2022 by JustLurking

[Cap]

On 12/14/2022 at 6:41 PM, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Place your bets, party people.

 

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Theaters are dead.

 

How is Anthony spinning this disastrous opening?

ALL I HAVE TO DO IS LOCK THE THREAD, and we hit Bingo. 
 

@Porthos Hey, silly face, come fight me because, [I actually wrote up something that was pretty inflammatory, but then I realized that half of the user base with not realize that I was joking with the BFF, and use it as an excuse to actually fight with each other. So, I’m just gonna let folks imagine something terrible here, probably about Star Wars.
 

Also this is a one off joke, XxR and Legion. Love you guys; but I got it solo]

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

25 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I’m not sure we can perceive any film that might wind up with $1.5 billion with one major market in flux ‘middle of the road’. 
 

I know it’s the sequel to the most successful film of all time. But so was The Empire Strikes Back. So was The Lost World.  Once upon a time, sequels didn’t make more than their mega hit originals. It really isn’t remotely unusual.  
 

If TWOW making $1.5 billion after a thirteen year absence is disappointing, then recent cultural phenomenon Black Panther’s follow-up must be a disaster at not even $850 million*
 

*I don’t think it is by a long shot. 

Wholeheartedly agree with this. We tried to warn people for a literal one decade on this message board that having crazy expectations for this film was setting people up to disappointment. Most of us were fully aware that while it could go big, it would likely not come anywhere close of A1 or AEG. I think that without COVID / war going on, $2B was likely at play, but not over A1 or AEG.

 

Current Top Grossing films:

 

1	Avatar	$2,922,917,914	2009
2	Avengers: Endgame	$2,797,501,328	2019
3	Titanic	$2,201,647,264	1997
4	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens	$2,069,521,700	2015
5	Avengers: Infinity War	$2,048,359,754	2018
6	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$1,916,306,995	2021
7	Jurassic World	$1,671,537,444	2015
8	The Lion King	$1,663,250,487	2019
9	The Avengers	$1,518,815,515	2012
10	Furious 7	$1,515,341,399	2015
11	Top Gun: Maverick	$1,488,732,821	2022

Without COVID, I think the list would be like this:

 

1. Avatar

2. Avengers: Endgame

3. Spider-Man: No Way Home

 

Avatar 2 would have a real shot of topping Jurassic World and maybe Infinity War / TFA, but not much more than that. Wakanda Forever is one of my favorite films of the year next to Everything Everywhere All At Once and Nope!, Avatar 2 definitely makes the top 10 of my list, and what they are setting out to make at box office is what they were expected to make. It’s actually impressive how much interest there is still for Avatar, even with all the memes, and I absolutely love Coogler and his team for giving us such a heartfelt eulogy for an amazing character and actor. 2022 was a great year for film.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Alligator Zatt

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

ALL I HAVE TO DO IS LOCK THE THREAD, and we hit Bingo. 
 

@Porthos Hey, silly face, come fight me because, [I actually wrote up something that was pretty inflammatory, but then I realized that half of the user base with not realize that I was joking with the BFF, and use it as an excuse to actually fight with each other. So, I’m just gonna let folks imagine something terrible here, probably about Star Wars.
 

Also this is a one off joke, XxR and Legion. Love you guys; but I got it solo]

 

 

Seriously though:

 

IS MARVEL DEAD?!

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

 

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

 

So break even is 1.5 billion at most with marketing factored in. I guess what they end up doing with Avatar 5 and anything else depends on how Disney feels about it just hitting the break even/a little bit over that.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Mulder

[vale9001]

31 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I’m not sure we can perceive any film that might wind up with $1.5 billion with one major market in flux ‘middle of the road’. 
 

I know it’s the sequel to the most successful film of all time. But so was The Empire Strikes Back. So was The Lost World.  Once upon a time, sequels didn’t make more than their mega hit originals. It really isn’t remotely unusual.  
 

If TWOW making $1.5 billion after a thirteen year absence is disappointing, then recent cultural phenomenon Black Panther’s follow-up must be a disaster at not even $850 million*
 

*I don’t think it is by a long shot. 

 

BP lost his main actor plus you see characters in other movies.

If Avatar makes 1.5B is a lot worst than BP drop. After 13 years in numbers ot tickets sold would be like a 70% drop I guess (?).

 

but it's coming for 1.9-2B. 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Mulder said:

So break even is 1.5 billion. I guess what they end up doing with Avatar 5 and anything else depends on how Disney feels about it just hitting the break even/a little bit over that.

I still hope that is the wake up call for Cameron that he needs to invite others to play on his sandbox, it will actually benefit the franchise and free him to make different films. I don’t want him anywhere near superhero films mind you, just different stuff. I say get Robert Rodriguez and some new up and coming directors to inject new blood into the franchise after A3.

[BluKyberCrystal]

41 minutes ago, Mulder said:

You can have good reception and no competition and still not have an insane multiplier/final result. Wakanda Forever got an A, had little to no competition, and still only really legged out to 400. 

WF issues are elsewhere, not least of which is a somber ton and a lost of it's beloved lead. Avatar isn't really dealing with that, and it's got those big Christmas days.

 

That said, I might be totally wrong. This is uncharted waters for Cameron.

[marveldcfox]

34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Avatar 2 2/10.

 

This is what took Cameron 10 years? Should have ended with A1. 

Lol. 

[Gkalaitza]

18 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

without COVID / war going on, $2B was likely at play

 

I would say that without Covid/war 2 billion would have been an aboslute lock and 2.5 billion quite likely .

 

Not only the movie would have made at least $350m more from China and Russia but exchange rates in almost all markets would be significantly better (as would people's economic situation and movie going habits). For a movie that makes 65-70%+ of its gross from overseas markets the current exchange rates compared to 2019 represent hundreds of millions in loss in dollars. 

[krla]

15 minutes ago, Cap said:

Late night/early morning shit posting:

 

Hey Tracking Thread, how many PLF screens were available of the 4400 screens it’s playing on this weekend? Since there could be an argument made that no one’s seen it and regular 2D, you could say that it only opened on [insert however many PLFs are available]. Makes that 135M OW waaaaaaaaay more impressive. 
 

It’s just a matter of how you manipulate the data.

This was likely the case with A1 and 3D, and a big contributor to its legs, as well as basically putting a false (or hidden) ceiling on the maximum gross it could make, which is also probably why its second weekend had such a great hold.

 

If we get a similar situation with A2, it should have great legs, as well. I think its Monday drop will tell us a lot about whether it is PLFs capacity limiting the gross or not. 

 

If it turns out to be the case, and A2 legs it, it'll be interesting to see what happens with A3. If other studios don't clear a path for it, and A3 has to give up PLFs after 2-4 weeks, then that may spell the beginning of the end. Unless Cameron can come up with a new technology that theaters have to put in, which will basically guarantee A3 screens for months. 3D without glasses could be that. 

 

Or theaters start increasing capacity for PLFs in order to meet demand. But then Avatar might just play like a CBM, since it wouldn't have that false ceiling, and demand can easily be met (unless he makes A3 even longer than A2..., James Cameron be like "The new tech I'm bringing to theaters for A3? INTERMISSIONS"). Anyways, I have a personal belief that a movie being heavily frontloaded hurts its gross, because most WoM fizzles out after a week or two. Most marketing succeeds when people are repeatedly exposed to something, and the best marketing is hearing from someone you know. If the demand is spread out, then people who are unlikely to hit theaters are going to be more exposed to WoM over a greater length of time, which will increase the chance they go out, which further extends WoM. I think James Cameron has benefited the most from this. 

 

Theaters could stay open for longer hours (like with Endgame), but I doubt they see much reason in increasing their expenses to basically run a couple PLF screens for an extra showing. They are probably just hoping that excess capacity flows into 2D or regular 3D, or that A2 will help keep them afloat until February/March.

[BluKyberCrystal]

22 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Wholeheartedly agree with this. We tried to warn people for a literal one decade on this message board that having crazy expectations for this film was setting people up to disappointment. Most of us were fully aware that while it could go big, it would likely not come anywhere close of A1 or AEG. I think that without COVID / war going on, $2B was likely at play, but not over A1 or AEG.

 

Current Top Grossing films:

 

1	Avatar	$2,922,917,914	2009
2	Avengers: Endgame	$2,797,501,328	2019
3	Titanic	$2,201,647,264	1997
4	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens	$2,069,521,700	2015
5	Avengers: Infinity War	$2,048,359,754	2018
6	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$1,916,306,995	2021
7	Jurassic World	$1,671,537,444	2015
8	The Lion King	$1,663,250,487	2019
9	The Avengers	$1,518,815,515	2012
10	Furious 7	$1,515,341,399	2015
11	Top Gun: Maverick	$1,488,732,821	2022

Without COVID, I think the list would be like this:

 

1. Avatar

2. Avengers: Endgame

3. Spider-Man: No Way Home

 

Avatar 2 would have a real shot of topping Jurassic World and maybe Infinity War / TFA, but not much more than that. Wakanda Forever is one of my favorite films of the year next to Everything Everywhere All At Once and Nope!, Avatar 2 definitely makes the top 10 of my list, and what they are setting out to make at box office is what they were expected to make. It’s actually impressive how much interest there is still for Avatar, even with all the memes, and I absolutely love Coogler and his team for giving us such a heartfelt eulogy for an amazing character and actor. 2022 was a great year for film.

 Isn't the issue that what Avatar 3 would end up looking is a similar number, with a less COVID hellscape China? Diminishing returns as more and more of these come out closer together. It's why I fully except the third one to be delayed and not hit it's date.

[Brainbug]

8 hours ago, Reddroast said:

Never go full stan.

 

Except for Jurassic World and Godzilla movies! Then its justified!

[Nero]

42 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Avatar 2 2/10.

 

This is what took Cameron 10 years? Should have ended with A1. 

What's your rating for A1 ?

[Brainbug]

43 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Avatar 2 2/10.

 

This is what took Cameron 10 years? Should have ended with A1. 

 

Worse than the Jurassic World films for you?