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[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Firepower said:

Not when only your production budget is 460 mln. This kind of final result would be a death kiss to 4 and 5.

Luckily the production budget of A2 has no bearing on the production budgets of any of the proceeding sequels, as has been outlined/discussed across this forum. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 minute ago, Firepower said:

Not when your production budget is 460 mln. This kind of final result would be a death kiss to 4 and 5.

Well good thing that it is on low end and mostly it'll end up 1.6-1.8 billion range.

 

Also fate of 4 & 5 will be decided by performance of 3.

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

It’s 1:25 PM Eastern and 12:25 PM Central. That covers a huge chunk of population. If Deadline is generous, they might give us a Tuesday estimate in the next 4-5 hours. 

I meant 12pm my mistake lol. While an early update could happen, correct me if I’m wrong but updates on week days numbers are sort of rare these days by the trades, aren’t they?

[Deep Wang]

Just now, LinksterAC said:

Eh...that's certainly possible, they *can* do it, but I'm not sure they actually avail themselves of those options for things that are engaging them--other than bathroom breaks or kitchen runs.

 

Certainly, I don't. Though that's admittedly a sample size of one.

 

Well, it's the idea that they know if something comes up, it's whatever, they can get back to it afterwards.  You commit to a 3 hour movie and it gets harder to reschedule. 

[Brainbug]

9 minutes ago, XXR 4x OW or Bust said:

Even on the low end, ATWOW will still make over $1.45B which is a totally respectable number (excluding expectations). FWIW, I’m still in on the $1.7B+ train.

 

Thats a little bit too much. A little bit.

 

[LinksterAC]

Just now, THUNDER BIRD said:

Well good thing that it is on low end and mostly it'll end up 1.6-1.8 billion range.

 

Also fate of 4 & 5 will be decided by performance of 3.

 

Didn't Cameron himself point to this having to clear $2B to be profitable?

[TwoMisfits]

23 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

Avatar 2 will make a solid 1-1.2B WW and life will go on

 

To get to the board "good" category and out of "disappointment" BO range, it's gonna need $460M*2.5X or $1.150B WW...so, hopefully, it's gonna be higher than your posted figures.  

[stuart360]

Got a few smilies when i suggested the domestic/international split could be even higher than the orig film, and hit 25/75 split.

Well its looking likely that could happen, in fact take away the covid problems in China and it would do it 100%.

 

There is more to the world than just the US, and international numbers will save this film and take it waaay past TGM WW.

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, LinksterAC said:

 

Didn't Cameron himself point to this having to clear $2B to be profitable?

No. Media ran with it for the clickbaits but that break-even number never existed. It is much lower.

Edited December 20, 2022 by JustLurking

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I meant 12pm my mistake lol. While an early update could happen, correct me if I’m wrong but updates on week days numbers are sort of rare these days by the trades, aren’t they?

They gave us the $16M estimate pretty early on Monday. So we’ll see if they keep going with that reporting behavior. 

[LinksterAC]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Well, it's the idea that they know if something comes up, it's whatever, they can get back to it afterwards.  You commit to a 3 hour movie and it gets harder to reschedule. 

Hm...I'm not sure that's really ever entered my head, though I do admit it's possible with streaming in a way it isn't with the theater. Though, again, sample size is n=1 here.

 

But, also, theater never sees you go on 4+ hour binges, which also have definitely happened while streaming to this sample size of n=1.

[Firepower]

Just now, THUNDER BIRD said:

Well good thing that it is on low end and mostly it'll end up 1.6-1.8 billion range.

 

Also fate of 4 & 5 will be decided by performance of 3.

Cameron was going to resume production on 4 and 5 after 2, in this case they have to wait 2 years to see if 3 makes more than 2, I'm not sure they are gonna play such a long game.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Got a few smilies when i suggested the domestic/international split could be even higher than the orig film, and hit 25/75 split.

Well its looking likely that could happen, in fact take away the covid problems in China and it would do it 100%.

 

There is more to the world than just the US, and international numbers will save this film and take it waaay past TGM WW.

I would be curious to know how much revenue the studio is getting from those markets. I know China only delivers 25% of the gross revenue to the studio. Disney has been known to get 70-80% of the revenue on the North American total. 

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Well good thing that it is on low end and mostly it'll end up 1.6-1.8 billion range.

 

Also fate of 4 & 5 will be decided by performance of 3.

Cameron already shot 1/3 of Avatar 4. I wonder what they plan to do with it now. I don't see this going past Avatar 3.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

 

Didn't Cameron himself point to this having to clear $2B to be profitable?

No he didnt for the 8 millionth time.

And Cameron has already clarified that he was talking about 2011 right before the sequels were greenlit,

[Brainbug]

Just now, CJohn said:

Cameron already shot 1/3 of Avatar 4. I wonder what they plan to do with it now. I don't see this going past Avatar 3.

 

Spoiler

 

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Cameron was going to resume production on 4 and 5 after 2, in this case they have to wait 2 years to see if 3 makes more than 2, I'm not sure they are gonna play such a long game.

I read an article the other day that he's already started filiming again. Not sure about that though as he's supposed to have covid.

I think the assumption that 4 and 5 are not already greenlit is just conjecture. He's filmed about a third of 4, and Stephen Lang said he's even shot the finale to 5.

 

He already got his 1bil long ago so imo 4 and 5 are coming anyway, and if 3 flopped (not happening), Disney would just use them to promote Disney Plus.

[JohnnyGossamer]

20 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Yep, same here on the 3D effects. I remember seeing Avatar’s 3D version in 2009 and noticed the glasses made the screen look smaller. I also get headaches from the glasses. To this day I still think 70mm IMAX is the best presentation. Giant screen with crystal clear image quality. 

That sounds like a "true" IMAX... If so, I'm not certain my city of Pittsburgh has ever had one and, unfortunately, certainly doesn't have one now. With that, my best option are an AMC Dolby (pretty close to where I live) and a Cinemark XD (not as close but not super far where I live) for PLF auditoriums. I wish we had a true IMAX here. We absolutely have some LIEMAX screens in the area though.

 

And, yeah, the glasses especially this time (maybe a Dolby thing) pinched the fuck out of my nose. And, the overall 3D effect made me wish I was just watching it in the same Dolby auditorium but in 2D.

[LinksterAC]

6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

No he didnt for the 8 millionth time.

And Cameron has already clarified that he was talking about 2011 right before the sequels were greenlit,

Cool your jets, comrade. My personal count of hearing that explanation has only been 2, not 8 mill, and only today. 
 

But thanks anyway for setting the record straight. 👍

Edited December 20, 2022 by LinksterAC

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, LinksterAC said:

Cool your jets, comrade. My count of hearing that explanation has only been 2 today. 
 

But thanks anyway for setting the record straight. 👍

Sorry bud it just annoys me when you get these clickbait articls and Youtube vids etc saying the 2bil thing, when its simply wrong and everyone always believes them.