Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

SAT should drop 30-40% and SUN will be higher than FRI, how much higher it's hard to know since FRI and SAT will be deflated because of the storms 

 

(Some can argue even SUN can be hurted a bit tho)

Should we pencil in a $14.5M Saturday for Avatar then?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, DAR said:

By next weekend Avatar is going to be close to if not over 300 million.   Not sure it’s only going to have 82 million left in the tank.  Especially with no real big competition until Ant-Man

 

It'll be nearing $400M by the end of NY Monday. It was at $197.7M going into this weekend...

 

$197.7M

$54.5M 2nd WE

$81M Dec. 26-29

$58M 4-Day 3rd WE

~$391M through Jan. 3

 

 

[Krissykins]

Only $2m for Whitney, including $730k previews. Stunned. 3 day will be barely $5m and it’ll likely finish under $25m domestic. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Should we pencil in a $14.5M Saturday for Avatar then?

Wouldn't be surprised with 12-13M 

 

14.5M seems like best case scenario, which is hard with the snowstorms

[Nikostar]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Only $2m for Whitney, including $730k previews. Stunned. 3 day will be barely $5m and it’ll likely finish under $25m domestic. 

I win compared to Babylon 

[ZeeSoh]

15 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

 

The Big Short is legitimately unwatchable, and the box office of that is acceptable but nothing amazing, especially for that time 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

... did we not just learn from BPWF (and probably Avatwo) about not using a lightning in a bottle one-off run as a baseline for setting expectations?

 

Maybe you can set a target at ~$500M with some carry-over from NWH, but that was IMO much more a confluence of events - and characters - than a new normal for Spidey, which hasn't cracked $400M without the assist from Tobey and Andrew

 

Once again, not a single MCU film has grossed between $460M and $620M (BPWF might push up that lower bound a smidge, this is an old graph), and I would expect SM4 to revert back to Tier 2 form

 

Do I need to go start another club? 😜

 

I would say that much like with NWH, until we know the general content of the film and the release date I wouldn't put anything out there as far as a prediction. For all we know, they could tie SM4 into DP3 and have Deadpool/Wolverine crossover with Spider-Man and through it back into December (I don't expect this to happen). 

 

My current assumption is that it'll be a July release with some level of crossover but not on the level of NWH or DP3. With that I'm thinking $475-525M DOM and $650-750M OS-C-R

[Cooper Legion]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

... did we not just learn from BPWF (and probably Avatwo) about not using a lightning in a bottle one-off run as a baseline for setting expectations?

 

This is why I weighted it more towards FFH! 
 

 

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Once again, not a single MCU film has grossed between $460M and $620M

Literally a nominal based coincidence 😛

Your entire “tier” thing using nominal grosses for a franchise over 13 years is totally unscientific, verging on pareidolia.  
 

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Do I need to go start another club? 😜

Go for it, I am probably going 2 for 2 on the BP2 and A2 clubs and I’d be happy to 3/3 instead  

[filmlover]

Somewhere, out there, Emma Stone is looking at the implosion of Babylon and thinking to herself "happy to have dodged that bullet."

 

Looks like Hollywood fumbled the big Whitney biopic. Oh well.

[DC Rich]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Do I need to go start another club? 😜

 

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

... did we not just learn from BPWF (and probably Avatwo) about not using a lightning in a bottle one-off run as a baseline for setting expectations?

 

Do I need to go start another club? 😜

very american-centric thinking. Lightning is striking around the world right now fella, it's just snow in america right now

[StreamBO]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Somewhere, out there, Emma Stone is looking at the implosion of Babylon and thinking to herself "happy to have dodged that bullet."

 

Looks like Hollywood fumbled the big Whitney biopic. Oh well.

That biopic should have released earlier. 

[StreamBO]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

very american-centric thinking. Lightning is striking around the world right now fella, it's just snow in america right now

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

very american-centric thinking. Lightning is striking around the world right now fella, it's just snow in america right now

It’s massively missing the expectations you guys had for OS, come on now

[M37]

6 minutes ago, XXR It's 2 Damn Cold Out said:

My current assumption is that it'll be a July release with some level of crossover but not on the level of NWH or DP3. With that I'm thinking $475-525M DOM and $650-750M OS-C-R

That’s more reasonable, though I’d probably start at ~$450M (legs aren’t usually great for July, especially with a full calendar), and maybe bump up if there is a crossover/hook that would help boost interest 

[Factcheck]

42 minutes ago, XXR It's 2 Damn Cold Out said:

 

Call it a hunch but I wouldn't bank on SM4 being a December film.

Then Disney will remove its July 2025 Marvel slot because I don't think Marvel Studios will release two MCU movies in the same month.

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah I’m definitely gonna need to get you on the record on this one Mem, you’re way too low. 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Legion in Boots said:

It’s massively missing the expectations you guys had for OS, come on now

my expectations were above the first film though, if you're going off "lightning in a bottle" it's nothing to do with my expectations.

Unless you're talking about US, China or Japan I heavily disagree with this.

 

It's going to be #2 worldwide (of all time) behind Avatar if you get rid of those 3 regions

[PenguinHyphy]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

very american-centric thinking. Lightning is striking around the world right now fella, it's just snow in america right now

 

You are aware that you are in the domestic box office forum, right?           

 

 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Your entire “tier” thing using nominal grosses for a franchise over 13 years is totally unscientific, verging on pareidolia.

Yes, but as I’ve explained before, I believe the higher ATP from adjustment is mostly offset by a reduced audience pool post-pandemic, making grosses over that period nearly directly comparable (AOU is the one outlier that probably gets bumped up into T1.5)