Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Reddroast]

35 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

IronJimbo and his 12 accounts sure have been quiet lately. 🤔

He had to reup his copium

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, Reddroast said:

MONTHS?!

 

years

[Reddroast]

Just now, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

years

How has he not been permabanned

[JustLurking]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think it's not the case because SAT was during the storm and it still had a very tiny drop, way less than R1. 

 

We know it's deflated at some degree, but i think if SUN numbers being so high was just because of the storm passing, we probably would've seen a bad drop on SAT (which was amazing) and FRI jump would be awful (and ended up decent).

 

IMO the signs over the weekend are pointing today performance it's not just balancing the storms effects. But totally agreed, we'll only know for sure after NYD.

 

 

The storm doesn't exist in a vacuum where it only impacts the numbers if they're bad.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Despite the snowstorm the drops/raises relative to the vast majority of other films playing from Wed-Sat were an extremely positive sign for AVATAR. It's going to explode this coming week.

[Gkalaitza]

18 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

The storm doesn't exist in a vacuum where it only impacts the numbers if they're bad.

i think the point was that any positive spillover to Sunday from FRI and SAT that where hit by the storm harder still wouldnt be enough to make Sunday bigger than it would have been without any storm at all. That its still probably a deflated Sunday by a biteven if the storm's impact being smaller + spillover for the more impacted previous days counterbalanced most of the weather deflation. Its mostly a guess but it makes sense to me

Edited December 26, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[ThomasNicole]

17 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

The storm doesn't exist in a vacuum where it only impacts the numbers if they're bad.

Isn't that obvious? I literally said it obviously did impact at some degree.

 

I just said the FRI jump and SAT drop doesn't indicate such an extraordinary bad impact that SUN overperformance is just compensating that.

[AnDr3s]

6 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Most deserved billion ive seen in a long time.

the only cold that dominion had in its 2nd weekend was the reception

[JustLurking]

10 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Isn't that obvious? I literally said it obviously did impact at some degree.

 

I just said the FRI jump and SAT drop doesn't indicate such an extraordinary bad impact that SUN overperformance is just compensating that.

The point is - it's not exactly easy to say where the line is between "the numbers didn't come in too bad so the storm impact was lower than expected" and "the numbers came in decent enough in spite of the storm, so they would've been exceptional without it". Storm impact isn't something anyone can decide off reading numbers.

[Gkalaitza]

If SUN comes out at 29m and one assumes that it outpaced R1 (25.8m) only because the storm was milder compared to FRI and SAT and so losses from the previous 2 days due to the storm spilled over to SUN then it only makes sense to still consider that 3m difference in Sundays as lost Weekend gross due to storm. And that would mean that A2 would have had more or less the same 3 day second weekend gross as R1 without a storm and a noticably better drop from OW as a result

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

The point is - it's not exactly easy to say where the line is between "the numbers didn't come in too bad so the storm impact was lower than expected" and "the numbers came in decent enough in spite of the storm, so they would've been exceptional without it". Storm impact isn't something anyone can decide off reading numbers.

Of course we can't decide, we're not gods, but we can discuss our analysis based on the data, which is the whole point of the forum and it's what i did.

 

I really don't know why you're so upset about this, but okay.

Edited December 26, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

the only cold that dominion had in its 2nd weekend was the reception

 

:oooohburn: <--- just imagine the "Loki OOOOH" reaction that hasn't yet been added placed THERE

[Gkalaitza]

Seems reasonable to assume that whatever A2 3 day second weekend is ,lets say 62m, that would have been the lower end or floor of what it would have made without the storm, right ?. Yeah maybe storm shennanigans will inflate sunday higher than it would have been but overall its very hard to imagine a scenario where the storm and weather wasnt a net negative overall for the weekend total, even if was in a smaller degree than people thought

Edited December 26, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[JustLurking]

15 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Of course we can't decide, we're not gods, but we can discuss our analysis based on the data, which is the whole point of the forum and it's what i did.

 

I really don't know why you're so upset about this, but okay.

...what part of my post makes me sound upset? 👀

 

I'm just saying, storm shenanigans messed with what should've been a very informative weekend for the film's prospects - things are very unclear atm and will probably continue to be until we see a few dailies from next aeek, atleast

[Deep Wang]

54 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think it's not the case because SAT was during the storm and it still had a very tiny drop, way less than R1. 

 

We know it's deflated at some degree, but i think if SUN numbers being so high was just because of the storm passing, we probably would've seen a bad drop on SAT (which was amazing) and FRI jump would be awful (and ended up decent).

 

See, I think I interpret the numbers as Thurs/Fri being the most impacted by the weather and then the great drop on Saturday was some catch up from people that missed out the previous couple of days 🤷‍♂️

 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

See, I think I interpret the numbers as Thurs/Fri being the most impacted by the weather and then the great drop on Saturday was some catch up from people that missed out the previous couple of days 🤷‍♂️

 

Seems reasonable to me as well, even if i think THU would be deflated anyway because of the runtime hurting later shows during weekdays [TUE the only outlier maybe because of the discounts]

 

 

[Gkalaitza]

Maybe i missed stuff on the storm's coverage but the garbage weather was both worse and more spread through the US in SAT than in THURS or at the very least as bad . Dont know if Thursday being more impacted to the degree that SAT ,Christmass eve on top,  also absorbed its loses actualy holds water

Edited December 26, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Reddroast said:

He had to reup his copium

I should have spent christmas day hanging out with you redroast, my mistake

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

...what part of my post makes me sound upset? 👀

 

I'm just saying, storm shenanigans messed with what should've been a very informative weekend for the film's prospects - things are very unclear atm and will probably continue to be until we see a few dailies from next aeek, atleast

Not sure, just felt the tone of the messages upset overall, as if i said something insensitive or absurd [which i don´t think i did] 

 

But it´s fine, this is the problem with texts, it can be perceived different than it´s supposed to be 

 

I do get your point tho, i agreed overall

 

 

[Grebacio]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

I should have spent christmas day hanging out with you redroast, my mistake

Can you provide us an update of how many times have you seen Avatar 2?