Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Agafin]

Even from a financial perpective, admissions ( and demographics for that matter) are also important, both to theaters and studios. Even putting aside their budgets, a movie like Minions 2 was still preferable to one like Wakanda Forever despite earning less because it sold more tickets. For theaters, that's better because more people means more concession sales (and that's more profitable to them than ticket sales). For studios, it's better because more people seeing the movie means more ancillary revenue later on (toys, hole video, streaming etc.)

 

This is only true when doing comparisons within the same market though. Comparing a movie selling 20m in America and 50 million in India or whatever would be nonsensical.

[Dale Cooper]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

More admissions means more popcorns/snacks sold, which is bigger revenue for theaters than share in gross. Other stuff like more parking revenue, more ad revenue and so on.

Admission are the truer data of cinema health, not just gross.

There's more to it than that as well. I'd willing to bet big that people willing to pay $25 (or generally willing to pay more) to see a film in IMAX are much more willing to buy expensive snacks than people who'd rather see it in a cheaper screening (or not at all).

[JustLurking]

Just now, Dale Cooper said:

There's more to it than that as well. I'd willing to bet big that people willing to pay $25 (or generally willing to pay more) to see a film in IMAX are much more willing to buy expensive snacks than people who'd rather see it in a cheaper screening (or not at all).

Not really sure about this. I'd wager family films sell very good amount of concessions for example despite their ATP being low.

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

There's more to it than that as well. I'd willing to bet big that people willing to pay $25 (or generally willing to pay more) to see a film in IMAX are much more willing to buy expensive snacks than people who'd rather see it in a cheaper screening (or not at all).

Pretty easy to argue the opposite too — people who are paying out the nose for the ticket itself feeling they have less to spend on concessions for that trip for total cost reasons.

[Mr Roark]

16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

But I think we have wait long enough to conclude that this will be a good run but not a legendary run.

 

Or....

 

Pandora collide with Earth and causing Pandora to sink into a blackhole. Kiri and Spider rush to where they first met and wait for their fate.   

Well it’s crystal clear that A2 is pulling off a good run but not “legendary” one.

Having said that taking into account all the circumstances going on right now the film is a massive success.

[Dale Cooper]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

naa, in any ways, more consumption is more popular.

This is just straight up not true. I can give you a hundred examples of this not being true.

[Deep Wang]

32 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

About popularity, basically take any MCU movie after 10 years, re-release out and compare it with what Avatar re-release did this year.

 

As far as i remember they re-released NWH with some gimmick just few months later, didn't work.

 

You can laugh and say the NWH gimmick didn't work, but it's almost exactly the same thing that the original Avatar did.

 

Avatar was dead in the water at $749m as of 8/1.  Then on 8/27, they released the SE into theaters and it tacked on an extra $10.7m.

 

NWH was dead in the water at $804 as go 6/24.  Then on 9/2, they released the More Fun Version into theaters and it tacked on an extra $9.3m.  

[Dale Cooper]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Not really sure about this. I'd wager family films sell very good amount of concessions for example despite their ATP being low.

I'm sure most does. I'm just saying that if you're willing to pay big for the ticket, you would logically be more willing to pay more for things around.

[M37]

On 12/25/2022 at 6:54 PM, M37 said:

Wondering if the Avatwo audience being a little different than a typical tentpole might lead to a more holiday friendly (also Sat/Sun) pattern than RO but a more muted Boxing Day increase. Something like $29/$31 or $30/$32, rather than $26/$32 

50 pages and 1000 comments ago

 

[Sheldon Cr]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Unfortunately you "thinking" can't translate to admits just yet

 

IF and that's a big IF, A2 does reach 750M, that will still be just 54M admits.

Actually no way to tell as folks are buying 2d and 3d Charlie. Going by the money if it's 68- 77mil tickets equivalent if A2 makes 750-850. Impressive anyway you want to slice it. Customers have to choose to pay those premiums over the norm tickets🤧😉😄

Edited December 27, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Factcheck]

13 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

A4 and A5 will definitely happen at this point. A2 will get to a minimum of #7 worldwide. Right now I assume A3 will drop about 20-25% admits in all markets (excluding China) and the A4 about 5-10% from that with A5 flat from A4.

 

Any way you spin it, the five films are probably doing a minimum of $10B and perhaps upwards of $12-12.5B.

A3 prediction- DOM 450-500M, China 400-450M, OS 800-900M Total $1.65-1.85B

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

50 pages and 1000 comments ago

 

I think SUN was just inflated from FRI and SAT demand from storm hit shifting to SUN.

[Alexdube]

12 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

A4 and A5 will definitely happen at this point. A2 will get to a minimum of #7 worldwide. Right now I assume A3 will drop about 20-25% admits in all markets (excluding China) and the A4 about 5-10% from that with A5 flat from A4.

 

Any way you spin it, the five films are probably doing a minimum of $10B and perhaps upwards of $12-12.5B.

 

Highest-grossing directors worldwide^[1]

Rank	Name	Worldwide box office	Films	Average	Highest-grossing film
1	Steven Spielberg	$10,649,269,084	36	$295,813,030	$1,045,573,035 (Jurassic Park)
2	James Cameron	$7,006,699,748	14	$500,478,553	$2,899,384,102 (Avatar)
3	Russo brothers	$6,843,246,470	9	$760,360,719	$2,797,732,053 (Avengers: Endgame)
4	Peter Jackson	$6,536,703,723	15	$435,780,248	$1,120,210,896 (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King)
5	Michael Bay	$6,495,374,196	16	$405,960,887	$1,123,794,079 (Transformers: Dark of the Moon)
6	David Yates	$6,350,769,729	10	$635,076,973	$1,316,278,261 (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2)
7	Christopher Nolan	$4,955,387,330	13	$381,183,641	$1,082,228,107 (The Dark Knight Rises)
8	J. J. Abrams	$4,648,965,502	6	$774,827,584	$2,064,615,817 (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
9	Tim Burton	$4,413,226,120	19	$232,275,059	$1,025,491,110 (Alice in Wonderland)
10	Ridley Scott	$4,366,290,985	31	$140,848,096	$653,609,107 (The Martian)

[JustLurking]

6 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

I'm sure most does. I'm just saying that if you're willing to pay big for the ticket, you would logically be more willing to pay more for things around.

Ehhhh I dunno. I mean, in part that is certainly true, but that goes on the assumption that the poorer portion of the moviegoing base just gets cut off. In reality when a film skews PLF this heavy imho that just means you're convincing people who would normally be content with regular format to switch to PLF/3D, but that doesn't necessarily make them richer and can definitely make them scale back on other expenses (aka concessions).

 

In the end I don't think it changes that much in terms of overall volume of sales, though, and probably isn't actually that worth debating.

Edited December 27, 2022 by JustLurking

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

50 pages and 1000 comments ago

 

 

[M37]

9 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

There's more to it than that as well. I'd willing to bet big that people willing to pay $25 (or generally willing to pay more) to see a film in IMAX are much more willing to buy expensive snacks than people who'd rather see it in a cheaper screening (or not at all).

You'd be correct on that wager.  Which is one reason theaters aren't as in quite as dire straights as the lower BO$ would suggest: much of the missing audience were those who paid for tickets and not much else, and are now just staying home and waiting for streaming (the one glaring exception is some family audience). The concession spend per person in post-pandemic market is WAY up over the before times, some place like $3-$4 per head (inflation helps)

 

With that said, seating is a fixed quantity, and you'd still rather have seats filled by higher admits even with only a small return to theaters from that ticket (studios getting most), than a 75%-90% empty auditorium - can't sell snacks to someone who isn't in your building, even if they were only a hit 1 of every 5 or 10 visits.

[grey ghost]

20 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

A4 and A5 will definitely happen at this point. A2 will get to a minimum of #7 worldwide. Right now I assume A3 will drop about 20-25% admits in all markets (excluding China) and the A4 about 5-10% from that with A5 flat from A4.

 

Any way you spin it, the five films are probably doing a minimum of $10B and perhaps upwards of $12-12.5B.

 

So I guess Avatar will be the biggest franchise in terms of average gross and the MCU will be the biggest in total gross.

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The plot of M37GAN

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

You'd be correct on that wager.  Which is one reason theaters aren't as in quite as dire straights as the lower BO$ would suggest: much of the missing audience were those who paid for tickets and not much else, and are now just staying home and waiting for streaming (the one glaring exception is some family audience). The concession spend per person in post-pandemic market is WAY up over the before times, some place like $3-$4 per head (inflation helps)

 

With that said, seating is a fixed quantity, and you'd still rather have seats filled by higher admits even with only a small return to theaters from that ticket (studios getting most), than a 75%-90% empty auditorium - can't sell snacks to someone who isn't in your building, even if they were only a hit 1 of every 5 or 10 visits.

 

Family spend is the highest concession spend, and that's why theaters not figuring out a subscription plan for them is so problematic and glaring (see, I can stay on a theme for months til Deadline reads my post and goes with it:)...

 

Every time I'm at the theater with the 4 kids, it's 2 large popcorns, minimum, which is now a $19 spend...so per kid, it's almost $5/head...before I see if I buy Icees for them, too...

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

So I guess Avatar will be the biggest franchise in terms of average gross and the MCU will be the biggest in total gross.

There are 30 MCU films.