Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[MrPink]

Skip to July 21

[Eric Loves Rey]

2 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Skip to July 21

Giant Woman

[CJohn]

The Little Mermaid is gonna tank. Under 200M total. You read it here first. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

The Little Mermaid is gonna tank. Under 200M total. You read it here first. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

June 2

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Into the Spider-Verse was already a leggy success when it first came out. And over the years, its audience has grown thanks to its big splash on Netflix in 2019 and the ever-growing popularity of Miles Morales as a character. This should see a solid increase, but how much is up for debate and reliant on the incoming competition and quality of the film. Either way, this should comfortably be ahead of its predecessor, especially when this will bring in plenty of the 18-34 crowd that is the dominant force at the box office at this point. 75/265 (3.53x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

June 9

Strays: The plot to this comedy sounds pretty stupid, but it has a fairly big cast behind it and maybe the absurdism of talking dogs swearing and cussing will get a few TikTok memes out of it. Hard to assess without a trailer, but I’m erring on the negative side, though better than the other R-rated comedy hitting theaters this month. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: I genuinely don’t know what to think with this movie and every other day I’m thinking “bomb” or “okay”. The competition for this is intense. But on the other hand, it's not so intense it can’t find wiggle room. The Beast Wars stuff doesn’t seem exciting...but that’s just me, and it seems the fanbase is hyped over all the cool Transformer stuff in the film. And when the fanbase is excited, then the GA gets excited, right? But Transformers has been on the decline for years and Bumblebee wasn’t that big a hit. But on the other hand, it’s been long enough from those final movies that people miss the franchise. But do they miss it? Do people care? Quorum shows that people care right now, but is that sustainable or mean anything closer to release? You get the idea. I guess I’ll go somewhere in the middle and just say it does on par with Bumblebee. Which...yeah, for a 200M reboot is not very good and will probably have Paramount hit the “In Case of Emergency, Call Bay” button. 50/120 (2.4x)

[Torontofan]

The little mermaid would have done 400 plus before covid.

 

However a lot of family based Disney films have been underpeforming due to Disney plus.

 

A lot of families will be like I already pay for Disney plus...I should wait for it then.

[Eric Loves Rey]

June 16

The Blackening: I had no clue this existed until I checked the calendar one more time. The premise sounds funny but super niche and really only towards horror buffs. But I guess that's not a bad thing? It seems like it was done on the cheap and will probably become a big hit on Shudder or whereever this goes on streaming. So...yeah. 4/10 (2.5x)

 

Elemental: Daddy Iger’s return doesn’t mean anything. We now live in a world where Disney’s animated movies aren’t theater destinations anymore for families and we have to deal with that. Everybody knows it’ll be free in a few weeks, so why rush out and pay for it? Kids don’t care about theaters anymore, and frankly, this movie has the look and feel of a Pixar parody rather than an actual Pixar movie. Bombs away, and another stepping stone for Disney’s animated movies to become permanently trapped on Disney+ forever. I know people don’t like hearing this stuff, but the truth hurts sometimes. 25/90 (3.6x)

 

The Flash: Ezra’s gone cuckoo, which has already alienated the fanbase, and apparently this won’t even matter for the new Gunn/Safran era? I think? Again, the big problem is that these movies don’t lead to anything, so the fanbase doesn’t care. And if the core audience doesn’t care, why should the GA, who are definitely suffering from superhero fatigue? This still has more going for it than Shazam and will probably do more than Transformers, but it’s just not going to be that big at all. 70/185 (2.64x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

June 23

No Hard Feelings: Strays at least has a funny concept you could get meme mileage out of and numerous A-list comedy stars. This has Jennifer Lawerence’s epic return and very little else. The basic premise doesn’t sound all that funny and while I like the heavy Broadway cast, that’s not enough to get the normies who never show up for any comedies invested. Everybody will forget about this in a month. 8/30 (3.75x)

[JWR]

12 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

June 16

The Blackening: I had no clue this existed until I checked the calendar one more time. The premise sounds funny but super niche and really only towards horror buffs. But I guess that's not a bad thing? It seems like it was done on the cheap and will probably become a big hit on Shudder or whereever this goes on streaming. So...yeah. 4/10 (2.5x)

 

Elemental: Daddy Iger’s return doesn’t mean anything. We now live in a world where Disney’s animated movies aren’t theater destinations anymore for families and we have to deal with that. Everybody knows it’ll be free in a few weeks, so why rush out and pay for it? Kids don’t care about theaters anymore, and frankly, this movie has the look and feel of a Pixar parody rather than an actual Pixar movie. Bombs away, and another stepping stone for Disney’s animated movies to become permanently trapped on Disney+ forever. I know people don’t like hearing this stuff, but the truth hurts sometimes. 25/90 (3.6x)

 

The Flash: Ezra’s gone cuckoo, which has already alienated the fanbase, and apparently this won’t even matter for the new Gunn/Safran era? I think? Again, the big problem is that these movies don’t lead to anything, so the fanbase doesn’t care. And if the core audience doesn’t care, why should the GA, who are definitely suffering from superhero fatigue? This still has more going for it than Shazam and will probably do more than Transformers, but it’s just not going to be that big at all. 70/185 (2.64x)

 

I disagree with these takes, but The Flash and Elemental are such wild cards that I'm not even sure how they'll do.

[Eric Loves Rey]

June 30

Harold and the Purple Crayon: Didn't realize this until now, but this has a pretty clear runway in terms of family films until Barbie, which might not even appeal all that much to kids, especially boys. After that, two extra weeks until the new TMNT film. It's still hard to expect too much from this, since kids don't care about theaters anymore, but depending on the quality of the film and the trailers, this might come away with a nice little total and be a pleasant little success for Sony. 15/60 (4x)

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: About a month ago, I thought that this was going to be massive without hesitation. Everything was in this movie’s favor. Nostalgia and Harrison Ford in his most iconic role one last time. James Mangold, an awesome journeyman crowdpleaser director. A long gap from the last movie, both to ride a new nostalgia wave and far away where people don’t have the stink of Crystal Skull in their mouths. Quorum’s Interest metrics were super strong and Disney will clearly do everything to push this movie. And they will. But the teaser trailer feels like it kind of came and went (though granted Indy skews to an older crowd), and this is shown in the Awareness metrics on The Quorum not moving much. But it’s still super early, and with limited competition until Mission: Impossible, I still think this is gonna be the #1 for the year. But probably not 500M+ anymore. So Mermaid or Guardians could beat it out in the end. But still, #1 is #1 and it will still be a strong finish for an iconic franchise. 155/470 (3.03x)

[robertman2]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

The Little Mermaid is gonna tank. Under 200M total. You read it here first. 

Hope not, because then all the freaks are gonna be all "GO WOKE GO BROKE" for 40 years

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Even a $90M total sounds optimistic for Elemental. I'm feeling a dreadful $55M-$60M domestic total myself. Between the insane competition and the Disney+ stigma that thing is going to be eaten alive.

 

Same with The Flash. It's not only a Dark Phoenix-style dead end but it's also coming out on the heels of superhero fatigue. A $130M domestic total wouldn't surprise me.

 

Rise of the Beasts could go either way. I thought the trailer showcased a much needed breath of fresh air for the franchise, but from what I'm seeing the fanbase seems very mixed on it. There's also a lot of backlash against some of the character designs. I'm expecting $500M worldwide for this one, maybe $600M. At least for now. We'll see what happens once the marketing continues.

 

That Spider-Verse numbers seem overly optimistic to me. Animation still has the streaming stigma thanks to Disney, and the movie still feels rather niche to me. I have it at around Sonic 2 numbers, so around $400m worldwide.

[filmlover]

No Hard Feelings apparently had every studio wanting it before Sony ultimately landed it. I would wait to see a trailer before writing it off.

[JWR]

Damn. Lot of pessimism in these predictions. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Just now, JWR said:

Damn. Lot of pessimism in these predictions. 

What reason is there to be optimistic about anything these days?

[JustLurking]

I reallllly hope Elemental is good and does well. I'm not too confident, but I definitely don't want to see pixar relegated to D+.

[JWR]

4 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

What reason is there to be optimistic about anything these days?

 

Eh, fair enough. I guess I'm just holding out hope that the year surprises us. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

June 16

The Blackening: I had no clue this existed until I checked the calendar one more time. The premise sounds funny but super niche and really only towards horror buffs. But I guess that's not a bad thing? It seems like it was done on the cheap and will probably become a big hit on Shudder or whereever this goes on streaming. So...yeah. 4/10 (2.5x)

 

Elemental: Daddy Iger’s return doesn’t mean anything. We now live in a world where Disney’s animated movies aren’t theater destinations anymore for families and we have to deal with that. Everybody knows it’ll be free in a few weeks, so why rush out and pay for it? Kids don’t care about theaters anymore, and frankly, this movie has the look and feel of a Pixar parody rather than an actual Pixar movie. Bombs away, and another stepping stone for Disney’s animated movies to become permanently trapped on Disney+ forever. I know people don’t like hearing this stuff, but the truth hurts sometimes. 25/90 (3.6x)

 

The Flash: Ezra’s gone cuckoo, which has already alienated the fanbase, and apparently this won’t even matter for the new Gunn/Safran era? I think? Again, the big problem is that these movies don’t lead to anything, so the fanbase doesn’t care. And if the core audience doesn’t care, why should the GA, who are definitely suffering from superhero fatigue? This still has more going for it than Shazam and will probably do more than Transformers, but it’s just not going to be that big at all. 70/185 (2.64x)

 

Now, I feel like I gotta defend Disney:).  Elemental shouldn't go that low, even though I do think it looks like an Inside Out-esque generic spin off.  With Migration leaving and Spidey being the only other animated (I think) for June/July, both movies should share the largesse of camp/team weekday trips, so even if parents won't pay the money, well, the camp fees are the camp fees and those camps already include movie watching b/c it's an easy field trip.  So, it's not gonna be great (unless it is actually great quality-wise), but it's definitely gonna get at least around Lightyear numbers...aka, 9 digit min...

 

Edit to Add: And what will help its numbers is that it, like Spidey, will be held for a long run, and neither have more competition coming to drop it.  Lightyear got burned by 3 animateds coming out in July this year, with the biggest by far (Minions) coming out 1st, so that by the time we got to #2 and #3 in July, theaters could drop Lightyear b/c they had plenty of animated covered, and Minions was the uber-performing one (not Lightyear).  That's not the current look for next summer.  For now, it looks like both animateds could be held for practically the whole "summer" for areas...and that will do wonders for late legs...

Edited December 31, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

June 30

Harold and the Purple Crayon: Didn't realize this until now, but this has a pretty clear runway in terms of family films until Barbie, which might not even appeal all that much to kids, especially boys. After that, two extra weeks until the new TMNT film. It's still hard to expect too much from this, since kids don't care about theaters anymore, but depending on the quality of the film and the trailers, this might come away with a nice little total and be a pleasant little success for Sony. 15/60 (4x)

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: About a month ago, I thought that this was going to be massive without hesitation. Everything was in this movie’s favor. Nostalgia and Harrison Ford in his most iconic role one last time. James Mangold, an awesome journeyman crowdpleaser director. A long gap from the last movie, both to ride a new nostalgia wave and far away where people don’t have the stink of Crystal Skull in their mouths. Quorum’s Interest metrics were super strong and Disney will clearly do everything to push this movie. And they will. But the teaser trailer feels like it kind of came and went (though granted Indy skews to an older crowd), and this is shown in the Awareness metrics on The Quorum not moving much. But it’s still super early, and with limited competition until Mission: Impossible, I still think this is gonna be the #1 for the year. But probably not 500M+ anymore. So Mermaid or Guardians could beat it out in the end. But still, #1 is #1 and it will still be a strong finish for an iconic franchise. 155/470 (3.03x)

 

I think Indy's being overestimated by a lot on this board.  I don't think Harrison Ford is Tom Cruise is any way, and with Tom Cruise coming out one week later, this action film won't be able to ride on nostalgia long enough to get near those numbers.

 

If there's a June movie that suffers and comes in under board expectations (especially seeing so many lists with how high those are), I think it's actually gonna be this one...